I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[showmethesnow]

500's are actually quicker and may go for the capture of our initial coastal in a very favorable spot for us. 

[Cobalt]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Great nam run so far. I think that's a best case scenario for wave 1. Hopefully the GFS looks like that in an hour. 

GFS is weird with it's thermals, so I'm assuming it won't look like that with wave 1. Let's let the mesos lead the way with wave 1

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

NAM looks great for punch 2. I’m at a bit of elevation so I’m a little more comfortable with these marginal events.

No it doesn't.  H5 is noticeably worse vs 6 and 0z

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This is a crush job looking at the surface depiction, of course temp issues but it’s nice. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

500's are actually quicker and may go for the capture of our initial coastal in a very favorable spot for us. 

with the first wave, it is a noticeable improvement.  Based on the NAM, PSU would be 10000% less jittery. 

[87storms]

wave 2 might come a bit north this run.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

No it doesn't.  H5 is noticeably worse vs 6 and 0z

 

Yep. 6z was neutrally tilted... 12z still seems positive.

[csnavywx]

Virtually none of that is snow. Raging warm nose aloft (between 850 and 700mb) ensures that even if the PBL cools sufficiently, it'll be mostly sleet/rain or sleet until the low and WCB passes east a ways. By then, most of the precip is done with wave 1.

[T. August]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Virtually none of that is snow. Raging warm nose aloft (between 850 and 700mb) ensures that even if the PBL cools sufficiently, it'll be mostly sleet/rain or sleet until the low and WCB passes east a ways. By then, most of the precip is done with wave 1.

Snow maps don’t lie bud. Nice try.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, stormtracker said:

with the first wave, it is a noticeable improvement.  Based on the NAM, PSU would be 10000% less jittery. 

After looking over the 500's a little harder I am not so sure I like the quicker look or the overall look for that matter. Lets see how this plays out though.

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Virtually none of that is snow. Raging warm nose aloft (between 850 and 700mb) ensures that even if the PBL cools sufficiently, it'll be mostly sleet/rain or sleet until the low and WCB passes east a ways. By then, most of the precip is done with wave 1.

I was thinking there are issues thermally here! You are confirming! Sleet and rain. No surprises!

 

[WeathermanB]

North of Philly is basically a fringe job on the 12k NAM.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Yep. 6z was neutrally tilted... 12z still seems positive.

less confluence it seems, though...given that nam is even jumpy with wave 1, i might just stop at 48 hours lol

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Snow maps don’t lie bud. Nice try.

You serious, Clark?

[RDM]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Virtually none of that is snow. Raging warm nose aloft (between 850 and 700mb) ensures that even if the PBL cools sufficiently, it'll be mostly sleet/rain or sleet until the low and WCB passes east a ways. By then, most of the precip is done with wave 1.

Was just waiting for the proverbial "warm nose" to stick itself into our otherwise straight up shellacking.  When so many things have to align in near unison to score, when just one gets out of whack it signals the doom and gloom of "so close".  Hope this closes off sooner to generate some cold.  Any chance the rate of precip will help bump that warm nose south?

[T. August]

Just now, stormtracker said:

You serious, Clark?

Lmao no sir 

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Virtually none of that is snow. Raging warm nose aloft (between 850 and 700mb) ensures that even if the PBL cools sufficiently, it'll be mostly sleet/rain or sleet until the low and WCB passes east a ways. By then, most of the precip is done with wave 1.

I'm trying to look at the sounding on Tropical Tidbits but it seems like clicking on the location no longer works. 

Snow map looks amazing, too good to be true, but I'd like to see how the soundings look before getting excited.

[terpsnation]

Looks like upper level temps to under freezing at ~51 for D.C. proper.  Lose about .5" qpf beforehand, but still get about 1" frozen afterwards.

 

Lock it up.

[Interstate]

Silly NAM

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, T. August said:

Snow maps don’t lie bud. Nice try.

They often do.

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Snow maps don’t lie bud. Nice try.

Snow maps are okay for a first guess but are no replacement for more in-depth analysis. Big totals on the 12Z NAM through tau 51/54 don't really mean much when warm nose temps aloft are >1-2C, which is something the algorithm specifically has trouble with.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No it doesn't.  H5 is noticeably worse vs 6 and 0z

 

It's actually slightly closer to a big hit imo. Less of wave 1 escapes letting a low remain just east of us. Problem is the trough comes in split and one vort dives south and a duel low forms. We need the only low to be the one off the Delmarva. But it was closer imo. The issues happen at range. It was good through 36 or so. 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Lmao no sir 

I guess you don’t remember snowquester..... late March; daytime;  temp issues..... extreme caution needed.

[midatlanticweather]

Eastern panhandle of WV! BOOM! If Jeb want to go on a chase, he has a destination.. he may explode from excitement...

 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, T. August said:

Lmao no sir 

In these set ups the ground  truth ussually lies between these 2 maps. No way 10 to 1 ratios are correct. But the snow depth map can be to conservative at times.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

500's are actually quicker and may go for the capture of our initial coastal in a very favorable spot for us. 

Almost. The southern vort diving under screws that's up. Get rid of that and this would have been good. The main vort pass is good but can't close off because of the split. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's actually slightly closer to a big hit imo. Less of wave 1 escapes letting a low remain just east of us. Problem is the trough comes in split and one vort dives south and a duel low forms. We need the only low to be the one off the Delmarva. But it was closer imo. The issues happen at range. It was good through 36 or so. 

Definitely disagree, especially vs 0z.  But the NAM does keep it on the table. 

[Cobalt]

Just now, Chris78 said:

In these set ups the truth ussually lies between these 2 maps. No way 10 to 1 ratios are correct. But the snow depth map can be to conservative at times.

I like to blend Snow depth with Kuchera

[ErinInTheSky]

Heck of a NAM. Just what the doctor ordered.

[87storms]

temps for wave 1 are definitely concerning here.  i'm all in for snow tv and wet pavement if that means wave 2 and all the remaining upper level energy gives us even a few hours of the good stuff.  that would be fine with me.