I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Does any of the precip from the 2nd wave on the EPS make it out this way (HGR-MRB-OKV) ?  Until now, I have been pulling for the best slug of precip possible with the first wave and hoping for temps to cooperate, because even the models that have keyed on the follow-up have mostly kept QPF south/ east of here. 

Sure does dude. Mean qpf is only slightly worse than my yard. Plenty of 1-2" qpf solutions in the mix and a big step from 12z

[cae]

9 hours ago, WeatherShak said:

Serious question.  When is the last time the CMC verified for a legit storm for us?  Thank you.  

I suppose it depends on what you mean by "us". If you're talking about the DC-Baltimore region, then when's the last time we had a legit storm? 

Of course the CMC often verifies when the models agree.  But if you mean when's the last time the CMC out-verified the GFS and Euro, it's happened already several times this season.  Most recently on 03/12.  I just added the write-up to the model discusison thread, starting here.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50849-winter-model-performance-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=4890898

Of course that doesn't mean it's going to do well this time, but it does happen.

[87storms]

More so than where that initial vort ends up it seems like the gfs is a little more neutral with that main southern stream piece (wave 2).  The other models seem to want to lift the trough sooner.  That’s the quick and dirty I can see with 6z.  With the blocking in place and recent steering of systems off the coast I don’t think that idea is off the table, but it is kind of in a smaller camp now with that.  I have a feeling 12z will start building some consensus on how those pieces from that west coast energy reorganize as they move east.

 

[WeathermanB]

NAM 12k is just starting to initialize, wonder what it has in store for 12z...

[SlamSlam]

NAM 12k is just starting to initialize, wonder what it has in store for 12z...

Have a feeling it will crush us.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

[dallen7908]

Here is an animation of the 06Z CMC showing the bobbling of the snow/sleet/rain line near DC as it moves through the area. What is the record for the most times the precipitation form has changed during an event? 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just a couple of days ago I preferred the slow strong initial low off the coast waiting for wave two and the 500's to catch up. But over the last two days with the changes I have seen on the models I no longer feel that is a higher odds win for us. I think the more likely scenario that plays out if we see that is that to the NE of us once again cashes in while we are left fighting over the scraps that they care to throw under the table for us. But let's see where the models take us. Have a feel they aren't done evolving yet.

We will find out soon. I realized I've been saying something misleading though. We don't actually need a "strong" wave 1. We need a slow wave 1. Plenty of the hits are anemic with wave 1 but they are slow allowing the next wave to catch up and phase. There is no escape then redevelopment. So a weak wave 1 can work if it slows and waits then amplifies and comes up. Basically less energy escapes east. Some can but only a small amount. If the while wave runs off i see no way this works. 

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The most important piece of guidance that keeps improving is the eps. The wave 2 idea continues to gain momentum. Getting close to the 1" mean qpf contour (dca officially in it) and that keeps going up every run. How on earth can that be interpreted any other way than things keep looking better. Even though it's a scrape, the euro op has precip for wave 2 with 0z when it had nada at 12z. This S is getting fun 

I'm not convinced this fails just way less optimistic then others. And my comments are specific to north of 70 in MD. I said I'd be way happier with where you are right now. My biggest issue is just with how to get there. The EPS also trended towards a better wave 2. But if you look at north MD the only solutions that get heavy snow up here in the EPS age ones that have a slow wave 1 that phases. The escape then redevelop idea only works D.C. South. None pull that off up here for the reasons I listed earlier. So D.C. I think can work with either scenario. Up here I think we need wave 1 to slow down and phase like the cmc and those gefs and EPS members.  the euro op was in between. It allowed some of wave 1 to escape but held enough back to get a mediocre result. So it was workable. Slight improvement from that and we all win. I'm 50/50 on this right now. But I'm just making my case for why giving up on wave one or wanting to see it race out isn't a great idea for anyone north of Baltimore. We need the cmc idea of how this evolves. There is enough support from the geps gefs and some with the EPS to think that option is still viable. 

[WVclimo]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sure does dude. Mean qpf is only slightly worse than my yard. Plenty of 1-2" qpf solutions in the mix and a big step from 12z

Wow !  Thanks very much Bob.  Hope the trend continues for all of us.

[cae]

35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Where's @caewhen you need the snowfall maps. What a slacker.  

Sorry... busy week. 

I'll see if I can put the REPS up later this afternoon.

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, cae said:

Sorry... busy week. 

 

I'll see if I can put the REPS up later this afternoon.

Thanks. There are some monsters in there especially for northern Md. 1-2 feet +. 

[87storms]

20 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

NAM 12k is just starting to initialize, wonder what it has in store for 12z...

Wave 1 is all about temps and p type at this point.  That initial wave is gaining consistency. For wave 2 I’m looking at the southern stream. I think we want that to tilt negative sooner than what the gfs is depicting.  That may allow better phasing with the trailing NS energy.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, cae said:

Sorry... busy week. 

I'll see if I can put the REPS up later this afternoon.

21 please 

[Cobalt]

Lol we have this going for us. Apparently it's "better than the RPM"

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Thanks. There are some monsters in there especially for northern Md. 1-2 feet +. 

One gives us 60+ mm as snow. That's 2.36". 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

21 please 

There are a handful in there that I would gladly accept. But yeah, 21, please.

eta: And nothing less the 12 to 1 ratios would be acceptable though 15 to one is preferred. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Lol we have this going for us

 

That model sucks. But it shows my worst nightmare.  I think Dc is in a pretty good spot right now. This might be their win.  My pessimism isn't for them. It's for up here. 

[showmethesnow]

At 42 hours still holding on strong with the closed low for our initial storm.

[poolz1]

NAM looks to continue the trend of a slower lead wave

[psuhoffman]

Just now, poolz1 said:

NAM looks to continue the trend of a slower lead wave

Good 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

NAM looks to continue the trend of a slower lead wave

Not sure it is slower in my mind but it does look a little north at the surface and at 500's.

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

At 42 hours still holding on strong with the closed low for our initial storm.

Wet and not white look to it as well!

 

[cae]

17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Thanks. There are some monsters in there especially for northern Md. 1-2 feet +. 

No problem, but all the caveats about the GEPS at short range apply.  The REPS will probably be more informative.

[terpsnation]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Not sure it is slower in my mind but it does look a little north at the surface and at 500's.

Surface way north at 48.

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure it is slower in my mind but it does look a little north at the surface and at 500's.

Yeah I was going to say both. Slower and North.  At hour 48

[showmethesnow]

Once again we are seeing issues with how a model wants to handle the low once it gets to our longitude.

[WeathermanB]

One thing i am confident on, whilst Delaware might miss wave 1 because of p-type issues, wave 2 could save us and give a snow dump. After all, it is a little north this run, so DC and north could very well get into the action as well. However, it is not set in stone just yet. Give a couple more model runs, and build the consensus further.

[showmethesnow]

Nice hit for dc/balt corridor for the initial wave. Lets see if we can get an added bonus.

[terpsnation]

Definitely some temp issues, but 12k first wave looks awesome.

[Chris78]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Nice hit for dc/balt corridor for the initial wave. Lets see if we can get an added bonus.

Great nam run so far. I think that's a best case scenario for wave 1. Hopefully the GFS looks like that in an hour. 

[ErinInTheSky]

NAM looks great for punch 1. I’m at a bit of elevation so I’m a little more comfortable with these marginal events.