I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[87storms]

since losing the 2nd wave coastal idea friday, it's definitely made some ticks west since about 6z saturday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031706&fh=108

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031812&fh=78

it's not quite there yet, but the trend is, so we just gotta hope it continues.

[paxpatriot]

[Cobalt]

Woah

[clskinsfan]

  On 3/18/2018 at 3:58 PM, EastCoast NPZ said:

Not looking at the run, what is the onset time?

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Overnight tomorrow night. It isnt heavy according to the GFS. And the Kuchera map is probably the most realistic with around 4 or 5 inches out this way. Temps are good while the snow falls. But we are right at freezing the entire event.

[H2O]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:02 PM, WeathermanB said:

Nevermind, i have three heads. 

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Try making 3 less posts

[BristowWx]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:02 PM, WeathermanB said:

Nevermind, i have three heads. 

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Your weenie card is being pulled. 

[yoda]

CMC ftw

[stormtracker]

  On 3/18/2018 at 3:59 PM, WeathermanB said:

12z CMC with the 2nd wave weaker compared to 00z. Also farther OTS. Not a good sign?

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Might I make a suggestion?

Stop posting. 

[stormtracker]

CMC is like a dog with a bone.  It won't let go.   Unfortunately, it's a dog on an island of its own.  

[psuhoffman]

  On 3/18/2018 at 3:52 PM, Bob Chill said:

I like everything about 12z. And it isn't just leesburg04

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  On 3/18/2018 at 3:52 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

If ya wanna talk about trends, that Low from the second wave is even closer to the coast at that timeframe than 6z or 0z...at least to my eyes, anyway

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I was comparing gfs to the runs that show better solutions but yes it did take a positive step vs previous gfs so that's a win. It's still not in the big storm camp. Amazing difference bwteeen rgem with heavy snow to northern PA and gfs with nothing north of me. Ggem splits the difference. 

[poolz1]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:02 PM, WeathermanB said:

Nevermind, i have three heads. 

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I dont think you are too far off by saying that.....It is further SE.  Still a very good hit but not the widespread nuke it had at 00z.

[aldie 22]

I look at it this way...in a complicated setup pick the model with the lowest IQ...it doesn't try to over think the solution

[EastCoast NPZ]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:03 PM, clskinsfan said:

Overnight tomorrow night. It isnt heavy according to the GFS. And the Kuchera map is probably the most realistic with around 4 or 5 inches out this way. Temps are good while the snow falls. But we are right at freezing the entire event.

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Yeah, I saw your post then saw that Kuchera map, and was certainly under-whelmed.  Very realistic outcome IMO and,  based on the forecast discussion, the outcome expected by NWS.

[87storms]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:06 PM, psuhoffman said:

 

I was comparing gfs to the runs that show better solutions but yes it did take a positive step vs previous gfs so that's a win. It's still not in the big storm camp. Amazing difference bwteeen rgem with heavy snow to northern PA and gfs with nothing north of me. Ggem splits the difference. 

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i could see why you'd be concerned.  even i am.  it still needs work even down here.  definitely looks like a better run for the coastal cities.  even boston gets close this run and with that NS energy hanging back i'm wondering if that will help pull the coastal a little further west/north.

[Cobalt]

Feast your face (Kuchera takes like 30 minutes extra on pivotal weather)

 

[psuhoffman]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:07 PM, poolz1 said:

I dont think you are too far off by saying that.....It is further SE.  Still a very good hit but not the widespread nuke it had at 00z.

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Yea it's location. People around D.C. see 12" and think it's great. If your near me and went from 15" to 8" your like meh. If your around Harrisburg PA and went from 24" to 4" your like wtf it lost the storm. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:05 PM, stormtracker said:

CMC is like a dog with a bone.  It won't let go.   Unfortunately, it's a dog on an island of its own.  

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And a very stupid one at that.  Like a basset hound.

[87storms]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:09 PM, Cobalt said:

Feast your face (Kuchera takes like 30 minutes extra on pivotal weather)

 

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how is that compared to 0z?  did cmc trend east at all?  looks like it.

[yoda]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:12 PM, 87storms said:

how is that compared to 0z?  did cmc trend east at all?  looks like it.

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Trended SE with the snow totals 

[Cobalt]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:12 PM, 87storms said:

how is that compared to 0z?  did cmc trend east at all?  looks like it.

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Last run:

Makes sense it jogged SE. It was on an island this far West

[psuhoffman]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:08 PM, leesburg 04 said:

I look at it this way...in a complicated setup pick the model with the lowest IQ...it doesn't try to over think the solution

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There could be some truth to the higher res and more complex physicss models struggling more with resolving all these discreet vorts and the low res model is like "just bomb a low there" but whether that idea is right or wrong is unknown. 

[WeathermanB]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:04 PM, stormtracker said:

Might I make a suggestion?

Stop posting. 

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I'm sorry. CMC is not in fact "weaker' like i said. Perhaps i forgot to add images? Please specify. CMC is probably on an island like you said.

[psuhoffman]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:13 PM, Cobalt said:

Last run:

Makes sense it jogged SE. It was on an island this far West

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I didn't want that. But I liked having some stuff north of me to balance the stuff south of me. 

[aldie 22]

I'm waiting on the feral cat map before I get excited

[Stormman96]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:04 PM, stormtracker said:

Might I make a suggestion?

Stop posting. 

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I see nothing wrong with his post. Is he not correct? The oz run last night had me gettig 19 inches of snow nw of Philly. Now the 12z show me getting barely 6. Major shift to the se.  no reason to believe it wont continue. 

[Amped]

GFS nails us again at 150hrs

[psuhoffman]

Cmc has a weird duel low thing. The west low should be the main one and it's likely undergoing the qpf a bit in the ccb. I'm fine with a 992 low tucked in just off OC that deepens to 985 6 hours later. That's not gonna fail even up here. 

[StantonParkHoya]

This thread is becoming unruly. You've got too many people making subjective assessments of each model run based on their particular location or desires.

 

[ErinInTheSky]

Time for us to wait for the 12z euro to come in and lift our spirits again.

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

  On 3/18/2018 at 4:19 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

This thread is becoming unruly. You've got too many people making subjective assessments of each model run based on their particular location or desires.

 

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duh.