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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 4:23 AM, psuhoffman said:

It's very close to the 3k nam at h5 at 60 hours. Actually the 3k is even more amplified and going neutral tilt ahead of the cmc. 3k might have been a nuke had it gone out far enough. Icon also is close. But yes I'd like to get some love from the European contingent shortly. 

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CMC also never ejects the first wave at 500mb.  It dies trying to move up the Ohio river into lake Erie. Doesn't get anywhere close to the atlantic where the GFS has it.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 4:18 AM, Amped said:

CMC somehow merges streams a lot more than the GFS over the MS Valley at 72hrs.  Then closes off H5 over the apps and pivots everything up the cost. 

Will wait for the UKMET and EURO before I call the GFS suspect.  This does look a bit like it's DEC 2009 solution, where it didn't merge the streams and let everything escape.

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It sure does look like it's "trying" to merge them but missing somehow...like it's there but not there, lol

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 4:50 AM, yoda said:

0z UKMET is wet with the first wave through 72... plus looks south with the SLP from 48-72

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I'm not thrilled with it. It cut way back on qpf north of DC. Fringed up here with wave 1. And is running the wave off like gfs. At 72 hours the U.K. Looks way more like the gfs then the icon/cmc. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 4:34 AM, Amped said:

CMC also never ejects the first wave at 500mb.  It dies trying to move up the Ohio river into lake Erie. Doesn't get anywhere close to the atlantic where the GFS has it.

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Yea that’s odd.  Looks completely dry for wave 1.  That gives me some pause for now.

That said, the icon does and also looks good for wave 2.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:01 AM, psuhoffman said:

Ben needs a geography lesson. He obviously has no idea where the Delmarva is. That looks awful. It's worse then the gfs. That wave is way too weak and east to do us any good. 

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Oh yeah, I see it now. Only glanced at the caption. Yeah, that doesn't look awfully promising. I'll remove the post

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:00 AM, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Either I am really bad at reading those maps... or that looks really sweet. 

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Depends where you are and what your looking for. U.K. Is wet wave 1 if your south of Baltimore. North of Baltimore it's pretty mediocre.  And it looks way less exciting for wave 2 imo. It looks like the gfs. Maybe even worse to my eyes. If we were wanting corroborating with the cmc this isn't it imo. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:04 AM, psuhoffman said:

Depends where you are and what your looking for. U.K. Is wet wave 1 if your south of Baltimore. North of Baltimore it's pretty mediocre.  And it looks way less exciting for wave 2 imo. It looks like the gfs. Maybe even worse to my eyes. If we were wanting corroborating with the cmc this isn't it imo. 

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Haven't seen ya this worked up all season...guess that means we could be close to a good storm? :D

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Thanatos_I_Am

Thanatos_I_Am

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:04 AM, psuhoffman said:

Depends where you are and what your looking for. U.K. Is wet wave 1 if your south of Baltimore. North of Baltimore it's pretty mediocre.  And it looks way less exciting for wave 2 imo. It looks like the gfs. Maybe even worse to my eyes. If we were wanting corroborating with the cmc this isn't it imo. 

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Yeah... it is pretty lackluster with wave 2.  I really don't know what to believe. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:04 AM, yoda said:

UKMET puts all the apples in the first wave and does nothing with the 2nd

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Yea but it does almost nothing up here where it's cold enough to snow wave 1 either. Wave 2 is your game down there. Unmet and gfs sucks because they suppress the heavy qpf south of where the temps are cold enough to do much north of 70. Then they both suppress wave 2 also. So no one wins. 

Ukmet is a bummer. I was expecting some support for the nam icon ggem camp and instead the gfs just got a big pat on the back. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:07 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Haven't seen ya this worked up all season...guess that means we could be close to a good storm? :D

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We are very close for the first time that's why I'm more into these small shifts. This can work. By now I was out on everything else. But if the gfs/U.K. Are right this is not gonna work. That lead wave has to slow down and hang around like the icon/cmc show. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:07 AM, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Yeah... it is pretty lackluster with wave 2.  I really don't know what to believe. 

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I'm good with the ukie. Does a half decent job in my yard with wave 1 and wave 2 is far enough out for an easy rebound. Models look far better tonight in general with potential for a drawn out event with upside than they did last night. That can't be disputed. We seem to be on the cusp of reviving wave 2 after mostly losing it. Much can change over 3-4 days. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:07 AM, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Yeah... it is pretty lackluster with wave 2.  I really don't know what to believe. 

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Might be nest to keep your mind as open as possible to the solutions until we get closer (difficult, I know...many of us are spazzin' out here because we're so close, lol)...Would be nice if the EURO could get on board tonight with wave 2 (as some of its ens memebers did earlier), then we could relax a LITTLE bit, lol

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:12 AM, Cobalt said:

GEFS looks better for first wave, a little worse for 2nd wave (as expected)

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Gefs is a loss because wave 2 is the show. Im have been and continue to be convinced that wave 1 is highly unlikely to do much on its own. Mainly because if wave one does run out ahead it's gonna shear out and be pathetic. If it doesn't and if amps up it will pull everything in like the c and icon and there will be a big storm. If there are two separate waves the first isn't going to be our win. So anything that's relying just on wave  is a loss imo 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:12 AM, Bob Chill said:

I'm good with the ukie. Does a half decent job in my yard with wave 1 and wave 2 is far enough out for an easy rebound. Models look far better tonight in general with potential for a drawn out event with upside than they did last night. That can't be disputed. We seem to be on the cusp of reviving wave 2 after mostly losing it. Much can change over 3-4 days. 

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Ehh U.K. Is now 2 major globals that show my worst nightmare scenario. A fringe wave 1 and no wave 2. 2/3 globals showing basically a total fail for me isn't making me feel warm and cozy right now. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:17 AM, yoda said:

So... do I go with psuhoffman's post or Bob Chill's?

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Location probably has a lot to say. Ukmet gives him about an inch qpf and me about 0.3. That's a big difference.  But I'm worried temps aren't going to work with the WAA precip south of 70. So essentially the gfs and U.K. Show precip where snow won't pile up wave 1 then have no wave 2 when it could pile up everywhere.  If I was in western VA with some elevation I'd love the UK. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:18 AM, psuhoffman said:

Ehh U.K. Is now 2 major globals that show my worst nightmare scenario. A fringe wave 1 and no wave 2. 2/3 globals showing basically a total fail for me isn't making me feel warm and cozy right now. 

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Well, I doubt a fringe your way because the final push north happens tomorrow. You also benefit from climo location. I'll get more precip and you'll get more snow.

We have different perspectives so that is why people like yoda see us divided. I'm hoping for a grass coverer and maybe 4" if it breaks right. I still strongly believe Wave 2 is viable and not trending to a fail. It's being resurrected from a fail from last night.

A big event isnt necessary for me to be completely satisfied. We differ there so our "spin" comes from 2 different views. Getting grass covering accum snow in the third week of March is a win. Getting 4" is a big deal. It takes less for me to be happy than you. Anyone reading our posts needs to decide what side they are on for themselves with what is good for them and what isn't.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2018 at 5:25 AM, Cobalt said:

Oh, thought you were considering the 3 the Euro. I guess then 3/4 :)

 

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I dunno. I was not expecting the U.K. To look like the gfs. I honestly thought the gfs was just a bad solution. But having the U.K. say "yea that" bothers me. So now I don't know what to think. So I'll just see where it goes and how it plays out. I thought things were trending the right way now I'm not so sure. I am sure wave 1 is fools gold imo. If it does something it will be part of an amplified consolidated system like the cmc. Not on its own as a washing out front runner. 

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