I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[SnowGolfBro]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:00 PM, stormtracker said:

You do?  I don't.  I mean, we are on a weather board though so I figured it was prudent to discuss a weather model.

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It is prudent. The NAM has value but my point was i want to see if the other models trend toward it or if it is on an island.

[stormtracker]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:44 PM, SnowGolfBro said:

It is prudent. The NAM has value but my point was i want to see if the other models trend toward it or if it is on an island.

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Agreed

[psuhoffman]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:44 PM, psurulz said:

PSU,is that from the earlier Euro run?  If so, we've already decided that it's e39 and winter is over.

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E39 is ok. I get about 15" but I get 30 on e18. 

[psuhoffman]

Gfs coming in a bit south less amped again so far. Hope that changes in future panels. 

[Vice-Regent]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:48 PM, psuhoffman said:

Gfs coming in a bit south less amped again so far. Hope that changes in future panels. 

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If that is not thread the needle then I don't know what is. This winter is at home in the dustbin of history. 

[psuhoffman]

Gfs better do something with wave 2 because it looks like a dud incoming wave 1. South/weaker/less precip. 

[stormtracker]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:50 PM, psuhoffman said:

Gfs better do something with wave 2 because it looks like a dud incoming wave 1. South/weaker/less precip. 

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Yup. Wave one is a complete meh.  Definitely not NAM like

[ErinInTheSky]

Yuck at the GFS’s front end.

 

Looks like we have a good old fashioned model war even to 66h.

[TSSN+]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:50 PM, psuhoffman said:

Gfs better do something with wave 2 because it looks like a dud incoming wave 1. South/weaker/less precip. 

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Gfs is garbage anyways. Why anyone cares what that model shows shocks me. 

[stormtracker]

I will say this..H5 is much improved vs 12z for round 2.  We'll see

[Interstate]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:51 PM, stormtracker said:

I will say this..H5 is much improved vs 12z for round 2.  We'll see

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I was going to say the same thing look at the H5 at 72

[WeathermanB]

540 line a little farther north. Ugh.

[stormtracker]

Don't even care what happens after 78....the H5 has markedly improved on the GFS.   Might still be a miss but man....

[psuhoffman]

Wave one is a total bust on gfs. Too weak to really do much for anyone. But I see definite improvement with wave 2. More ridging in front. Vort 2/3 more in tandem. More amplified. It might not get it done but it's an improvement at 72. 

[TSSN+]

I’d be using any model but the gfs right now. 

[T. August]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:53 PM, stormtracker said:

Don't even care what happens after 78....the H5 has markedly improved on the GFS.   Might still be a miss but man....

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I’m trying to learn, is the trough taking on a negative appearance at 78hrs?

[87storms]

wave 1 lacks the Ns interaction so it ends up being hit/miss. Need to be near that vort max (tbd).  Wave 2 has better ingredients for a larger event imo.

[stormtracker]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:55 PM, T. August said:

I’m trying to learn, is the trough taking on a negative appearance at 78hrs?

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Yes

[WeathermanB]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:54 PM, psuhoffman said:

Wave one is a total bust on gfs. Too weak to really do much for anyone. But I see definite improvement with wave 2. More ridging in front. Vort 2/3 more in tandem. More amplified. It might not get it done but it's an improvement at 72. 

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Whoops, forgot to brush the dust off the supercomputer. A little interference, but that's all.

[Maestrobjwa]

Ah man! Wave 2 is SO close....c'mon baby, you can do it, lol

[stormtracker]

Not going to get it done this run, but it's better.    The funny thing is the GFS shows we could get 0 from both waves.   Appropriate end to this winter.

[87storms]

Trough goes negative sooner for wave 2.  That’s a significant trend.

[ErinInTheSky]

Right after the Euro had its best run in a while too.

[psuhoffman]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:51 PM, stormtracker said:

I will say this..H5 is much improved vs 12z for round 2.  We'll see

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Yes it is!  Toggle h5 at hr 78 between 12z/18z and it's significant. Clear move the way we want. 

This setup is maddening though because it's so much potential both ways. Could hit wave 1 or 2. Or both. Or wave 1 shears out like the gfs shows and wave 2 misses south and that would be the final kick to the nads from this winter. 

Actually the final kick would be when that arctic wave day 8 goes just north of us after teasing  for a week then in early April a beautiful miller a bomb comes up and tracks right over VA beach and we get 37 degree white rain for 2 days. 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:53 PM, stormtracker said:

Don't even care what happens after 78....the H5 has markedly improved on the GFS.   Might still be a miss but man....

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So what, are we back to rootin' for wave 2? Eh, as Bob said...marry no solution until at LEAST 72 hours (given this setup, might wanna wait til Monday, lol)

[psuhoffman]

  On 3/17/2018 at 9:53 PM, WeathermanB said:

540 line a little farther north. Ugh.

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If that second wave comes together temps would crash as heights fall. We need the ridging in front to get it up here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 3/17/2018 at 10:00 PM, psuhoffman said:

Yes it is!  Toggle h5 at hr 78 between 12z/18z and it's significant. Clear move the way we want. 

This setup is maddening though because it's so much potential both ways. Could hit wave 1 or 2. Or both. Or wave 1 shears out like the gfs shows and wave 2 misses south and that would be the final kick to the nads from this winter. 

Actually the final kick would be when that arctic wave day 8 goes just north of us after teasing  for a week then in early April a beautiful miller a bomb comes up and tracks right over VA beach and we get 37 degree white rain for 2 days. 

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You used an exclamation point...which means you feel a little better about things overall! Lol

[87storms]

I guess it’s not a trend with 1 run but that low is much closer to the coast for wave 2.  

[TSSN+]

All the models look decent except gfs which is about exactly what I’d want to see. GFS worst model out there for the last like 2-3 months. It did a great job last storm.... 

[North Balti Zen]

  On 3/17/2018 at 10:00 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

So what, are we back to rootin' for wave 2? Eh, as Bob said...marry no solution until at LEAST 72 hours (given this setup, might wanna wait til Monday, lol)

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I’m not. Wave one and 4-8 would be awesome. Hoping for the second and whiffing on both would suck. And we’ve lost big time in similar setups.