Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,119
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.


Ji

Recommended Posts

  On 3/17/2018 at 4:13 PM, Bob Chill said:

Just my gut and experience...

Without a phase with wave 1 there isn't much upside. They are awfully close together. If they don't work together (which looks to be the case right now) then wave 2 won't do much in general. Go back through time and think about tightly spaced discrete events that produce big. Feb 2010 doesn't count because this is no Feb 2010. Not even close. The atmosphere needs to recover before dumping a second time. I dont see that kind of opportunity. Just a gut call though. No writing off anything. 

Expand  

I see...so there's not a scenario where wave 2 could slow down enough to let the atmosphere "recover" and let it produce afterward? (Was that the 2 wave idea that the models were showing a few days ago? Or was even that setup dependent on a phase?)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 3/17/2018 at 4:33 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...so there's not a scenario where wave 2 could slow down enough to let the atmosphere "recover" and let it produce afterward? (Was that the 2 wave idea that the models were showing a few days ago? Or was even that setup dependent on a phase?)

Expand  

No, wave 1 and wave 2 were working together.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/17/2018 at 4:33 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...so there's not a scenario where wave 2 could slow down enough to let the atmosphere "recover" and let it produce afterward? (Was that the 2 wave idea that the models were showing a few days ago? Or was even that setup dependent on a phase?)

Expand  

Sure, there's a scenario for that. Give it at least another 24 hours before worrying one way or the other. Wave 1 needs to be locked in before getting confident on wave 2. Even without a phase wave 1 will impact the fate of wave 2. However, wave 2 isn't nearly as attractive as a few days ago. That's pretty obvious. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/17/2018 at 4:41 PM, Bob Chill said:

Not really. Even if its identical to last night the range of possibilities are the same. The really important runs are still 24+ hours away. Even if the Euro shifts south I wont feel any different yet. 

Expand  

Remember when ya said "WHEN the EURO shifts north"? I'm holdin' ya to that, buddy!! :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CMC looks good for N and W folks.   Definitely a step back for others.  I think this is starting to gel into a classic March N and W event.  Can't be mad at climatology.  Not being a deb this time, just stating the obvious.  Most of us are going to need a lot of help with this one.   Second wave looks good for about an inch in the cities.   So realistically, I'd say our upside is about 4" total...which would double our snowfall for the year.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/17/2018 at 4:55 PM, stormtracker said:

CMC looks good for N and W folks.   Definitely a step back for others.  I think this is starting to gel into a classic March N and W event.  Can't be mad at climatology.  Not being a deb this time, just stating the obvious.  Most of us are going to need a lot of help with this one.   Second wave looks good for about an inch in the cities.   So realistically, I'd say our upside is about 4" total...which would double our snowfall for the year.  

Expand  

Identical thoughts. Yea, there's a way for urban and close burbs to be pleasantly surprised but reserving that enthusiasm for if/when it is happening in real time is good practice. I'm enjoying the hunt either way. Short range is around the corner too 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/17/2018 at 4:56 PM, 87storms said:

if you run the loop can see the vort pass.  closes off right under us.  i'm assuming we would want to lock that it in asap.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031712&fh=72

Expand  

based on entire loop - there's multiple more hits in store for the MA after Tu/Wed right on though 02 April...  Going to be a potentially captivating couple of weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 3/17/2018 at 4:58 PM, Bob Chill said:

Identical thoughts. Yea, there's a way for urban and close burbs to be pleasantly surprised but reserving that enthusiasm for if/when it is happening in real time is good practice. I'm enjoying the hunt either way. Short range is around the corner too 

Expand  

temps around 40 at onset, so we'll need those rates.  it does have that N&W of cities feel.  hoping wave 2 can also perform.  would be a fun 1-2 way to head into spring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...