Amped Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Wave 1 is a bit suspect to me. It really wants to make a 993mb mini low out of it that ruins everything? ICON is a smooth miss at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:12 AM, RedSky said: Bright and chilly - got that sun angle Expand lol. but it could be tilt and axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:13 AM, Ji said: Gfs was disgusting Expand It should be showing our next threat at 384 soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 running the 500 loop is interesting. almost looks like the west coast wave just sort of unravels as it moves east, splitting up into several vorts. it shows up on previous runs later, but how those vorts interact down the line seems to be the key, and it just doesn't seem like the models know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:09 AM, yoda said: But 18z GEFS were much better than the OP Expand For that run, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:16 AM, ers-wxman1 said: For that run, yes. Expand So let's wait and see what the 00z GEFS say before going crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I would take the 00z CMC even though it's just a one wave hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 When gefs looks great...the op never shows it in the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 CMC is better on the front end, colder, strung out on wave two. Puts a good stripe of snow north and west of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:15 AM, 87storms said: running the 500 loop is interesting. almost looks like the west coast wave just sort of unravels as it moves east, splitting up into several vorts. it shows up on previous runs later, but how those vorts interact down the line seems to be the key, and it just doesn't seem like the models know yet. Expand Yep. When in doubt, remember we don't do complicated well around these parts :). Gotta hope the euro stays the course or we might be looking at a northern/elevation front end thump and weaker trailing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:17 AM, yoda said: So let's wait and see what the 00z GEFS say before going crazy Expand sir you have the force. you know the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:18 AM, ers-wxman1 said: CMC is better on the front end, colder, strung out on wave two. Puts a good stripe of snow north and west of the cities. Expand And into the cities... 4 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 the 1st wave looks pretty interesting to my eyes...it's a piece of that initial low entering the west coast now. it stays hot as it cross the region and is a little further south than last run. it's warm for now, but certainly the northern tier does well verbatim: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031700&fh=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:18 AM, ers-wxman1 said: CMC is better on the front end, colder, strung out on wave two. Puts a good stripe of snow north and west of the cities. Meh. Its crap. Not interested in anything but a hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:18 AM, ers-wxman1 said: CMC is better on the front end, colder, strung out on wave two. Puts a good stripe of snow north and west of the cities. Expand Much simpler setup. Its not a HECS but I'd lock it up in a heartbeat. Surface temps kinda suck but we can worry about that later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 to 3” event. - a inch each way. so 0 to 2 - heating = it’s over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:25 AM, motsco said: 1 to 3” event. - a inch each way. so 0 to 2 - heating = it’s over. Expand Lol wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:24 AM, mdhokie said: Much simpler setup. Its not a HECS but I'd lock it up in a heartbeat. Surface temps kinda suck but we can worry about that later! Expand it really is. high to the north. nice vort pass (could be a little further south), but otherwise that's an interesting trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 So...are we gonna have to root for wave 1 now? Lol Hopefully wave 2 has a better showing tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:26 AM, yoda said: Lol wut Expand lol. sorry 3” get us nothing. lol. 1 to 3” of snow minus 2.5 from time of year heating = nada. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:26 AM, Maestrobjwa said: So...are we gonna have to root for wave 1 now? Lol Hopefully wave 2 has a better showing tomorrow... Expand Just root for ops to hone in on a solution that includes snow AND less than 72 hours. Prob 48 with this upper level setup. People can hand wring all night about this and that but I won't be one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:21 AM, Ji said: On 3/17/2018 at 4:18 AM, ers-wxman1 said: CMC is better on the front end, colder, strung out on wave two. Puts a good stripe of snow north and west of the cities. Expand Meh. Its crap. Not interested in anything but a hecs Expand Glad I wasted my time posting then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:29 AM, motsco said: lol. sorry 3” get us nothing. lol. 1 to 3” of snow minus 2.5 from time of year heating = nada. lol. Expand See ya next year then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Let’s be honest, these models won’t have a clue till Sunday, maybe even Monday. Been this way all season...Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:31 AM, ers-wxman1 said: Glad I wasted my time posting then. Not a waste. Just dosent excite me in mid march too see 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:33 AM, Ji said: On 3/17/2018 at 4:31 AM, ers-wxman1 said: Glad I wasted my time posting then. Expand Not a waste. Just dosent excite me in mid march too see 4-8 Expand Hope you get snow holed then and we will take your snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:33 AM, Ji said: On 3/17/2018 at 4:31 AM, ers-wxman1 said: Glad I wasted my time posting then. Expand Not a waste. Just dosent excite me in mid march too see 4-8 Expand 4-8 in mid March in the MA is a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 There are 3 vorts that track offshore. We have a nice storm if you get rid of the first and the last. We have 2 nice storms if you take away the middle one. So yeah root for the middle to somehow die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 4:25 AM, motsco said: 1 to 3” event. - a inch each way. so 0 to 2 - heating = it’s over. Expand So when it showed 12-18 did you say it would be 6-9???? Lol. Point is it’s one run. Many good snowfalls have heppened in March. “It’s over” is just as wrongfully dogmatic after this run of one model as “HECS-book it” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 On 3/17/2018 at 1:35 AM, stormy said: Cobalt: If you were not trolling, my apologies. But you admit to being "snarky" which has no place on this board. If you and your young friends feel a need to vent frustrations in your life, I would advise searching for another venue. passions already run high on this forum without snarkiness. Expand Stormy, you suck a lot. Please stop posting. You make this thread worse, and by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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