I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[87storms]

hopefully the euro paints a less weird picture of the storm.  the gfs is too busy.

[Jandurin]

  On 3/15/2018 at 4:57 PM, 87storms said:

creepy look:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031512&fh=168

lol

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SNAKE

[smokeybandit]

  On 3/15/2018 at 4:23 PM, Jandurin said:

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/974319531589099520

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"Like all freak March weather, the 1958 snowstorm was unexpected. The morning weather forecast made no mention of snow. But by afternoon, light rain had changed into big wet snowflakes, some 2 inches across. The snow fell for 28 hours."

 

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-03-15/news/1991074120_1_snow-march-weather-warm-kitchen

[PhineasC]

  On 3/15/2018 at 4:54 PM, Jandurin said:

I actually remember 93

But I feel like 1996 had bigger impact locally? Or was I just older so I found it more impressive?

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1993 was pretty lame in the lowlands. It was a big deal at elevation and also just because of being a triple phase and having very low pressure.

[Ji]

UKMET is very wet but not a huge fan of the track

[87storms]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:02 PM, PhineasC said:

1993 was pretty lame in the lowlands. It was a big deal at elevation and also just because of being a triple phase and having very low pressure.

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i hated how short term the initial heavy stuff was.  the morning hours were pretty epic, but it switched to sleet too quickly.

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 3/15/2018 at 4:33 PM, psuhoffman said:

I'm glad HM said it because I was looking at the setup and it reminded me of 1958 but I wasn't going to be the one to bring that up. 

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Comparisons with epic storms is dangerous talk 'round these parts....

[aldie 22]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:06 PM, Ji said:

UKMET is very wet but not a huge fan of the track

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That dryslot is pointed at you

[rcflyermd68]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:18 PM, leesburg 04 said:

That dryslot is pointed at you

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is that snow  or rain??

[clskinsfan]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:18 PM, leesburg 04 said:

That dryslot is pointed at you

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Of course it is. Story of the past 2 years. At least after this next event, if the GFS is correct, we can finally say this abomination of a winter is over.

[Cobalt]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:27 PM, rcflyermd68 said:

is that snow  or rain??

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Probably yes and yes

[rcflyermd68]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:28 PM, Cobalt said:

Probably yes and yes

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that's a lot of mixed mess

[kdskidoo]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:02 PM, PhineasC said:

1993 was pretty lame in the lowlands. It was a big deal at elevation and also just because of being a triple phase and having very low pressure.

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for me the thing about '93 that was so amazing was the shear magnitude of the area of snow that the storm laid down.  from the deep south up through eastern Canada with significant accumulations all the way back to central Kentucky and Ohio and deep into Ontario and Quebec provinces.  I don't know of any other storm that encompassed so much real estate with significant snow.

[Cobalt]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:29 PM, rcflyermd68 said:

that's a lot of mixed mess

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I have a feeling if we get a region-wide 1.5"+ QPF bomb with the potential to support snow, something like DCA would report 4 or 5" while IAD would report 13". Of course it won't happen that way, but if this supports wintry precip it spells power outages 

[Cobalt]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:29 PM, kdskidoo said:

for me the thing about '93 that was so amazing was the shear magnitude of the area of snow that the storm laid down.  from the deep south up through eastern Canada with significant accumulations all the way back to central Kentucky and Ohio and deep into Ontario and Quebec provinces.  I don't know of any other storm that encompassed so much real estate with significant snow.

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Probably a West Jan 4th storm IMO. That had potential but the low developed off the coast of Florida

[Chris78]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:30 PM, Cobalt said:

I have a feeling if we get a region-wide 1.5"+ QPF bomb with the potential to support snow, something like DCA would report 4 or 5" while IAD would report 13". Of course it won't happen that way, but if this supports wintry precip it spells power outages 

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GEFS has 1 inch plus on the means

 The member plots aren't out yet.  Not sure how much of that is wet and how much is white.

[Cobalt]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:34 PM, Chris78 said:

GEFS has 1 inch plus on the means

 The member plots aren't out yet.  Not sure how much of that is wet and how much is white.

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I see snow mean is 2-3". Not bad given the QPF distribution on the previous run had the 1" QPF mean all the way into upstate new york, while the snow mean was like 1-2" for DC

[Ji]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:35 PM, Cobalt said:

I see snow mean is 2-3". Not bad given the QPF distribution on the previous run had the 1" QPF mean all the way into upstate new york, while the snow mean was like 1-2" for DC

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yep significant uptick

[Ji]

why isnt this pin thread while another thread that nobody is posting in is not pinned. Makes it annoying to have to scroll down all the time. I am annoyed enough as it is this winter

[Cobalt]

What I like to see. Some member that get the heaviest snow just south of DC. 

 

[Cobalt]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:37 PM, Ji said:

why isnt this pin thread while another thread that nobody is posting in is not pinned. Makes it annoying to have to scroll down all the time. I am annoyed enough as it is this winter

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I think that's the secret though. Keep it like this until the WSW's are hoisted.

[Ji]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:38 PM, Cobalt said:

What I like to see. Some member that get the heaviest snow just south of DC. 

 

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looks like we are guarnateed to see a snowflake though LOL

[yoda]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:27 PM, rcflyermd68 said:

is that snow  or rain??

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Rain with a 996 mb SLP near PHL at 144  (12z UKIE that is)

[BristowWx]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:39 PM, Ji said:

looks like we are guarnateed to see a snowflake though LOL

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Ha.  I saw a couple last storm.  The most epic of epic fails. I remain skeptical but interested.  

[Bob Chill]

Everything looks close enough to me. I'd say 12z is a win so far. If we can cross the 96hr barrier with  an acceptable track I'll start digging into details. Honestly, this is as good a chance as any so far. There won't be a "perfect" anything this year. We just need something to not be overly flawed. We still have that going for us.

[rcflyermd68]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:42 PM, yoda said:

Rain with a 996 mb SLP near PHL at 144  (12z UKIE that is)

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thanks yoda i thought so

[Bob Chill]

Did I miss the talk of the 12z cmc? Looks like the gfs and works ok in the same flawed progression. 

[yoda]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:48 PM, Bob Chill said:

Did I miss the talk of the 12z cmc? Looks like the gfs and works ok in the same flawed progression. 

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I posted the snow map 2 pages back and tagged Ji... it looks good to me though those down by EZF make think different

[Ji]

  On 3/15/2018 at 5:46 PM, Bob Chill said:

Everything looks close enough to me. I'd say 12z is a win so far. If we can cross the 96hr barrier with  an acceptable track I'll start digging into details. Honestly, this is as good a chance as any so far. There won't be a "perfect" anything this year. We just need something to not be overly flawed. We still have that going for us.

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sounds like you like this  disaster more than last weeks disaster

[showmethesnow]

I hear we are getting a 1958 repeat. Cool.