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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:24 PM, psuhoffman said:

yea...this is going to favor typical climo locations I think.  God why couldn't we have had this at any point between Dec 15 and March 10th  UGH  

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Anything is still possible(right) but this "threat" is likely already gone for the MA I-95 and east crew, other than some frontside/backside snow tv. It could still work out for some accumulating snow N and W of the cities, and of course it's probably bomb cyclone IV for NE PA and New England. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
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Posted
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:24 PM, psuhoffman said:
yea...this is going to favor typical climo locations I think.  God why couldn't we have had this at any point between Dec 15 and March 10th  UGH  
Your favorite storm occured march 20th lpl...the one you always talk about
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Thing about 58 it shows the limitations of the time of year. Even with everything coming together for an HECS totals in the UHI were muted and that would only be worse probably now.  Was incredibly rate and elevation dependent. It took incredible qpf totals to get that snowfall. I know around here the 30" was from 4" qpf. So way below 10-1 even here with elevation. 

ETA: So even though I agree with HM on the analog unless this maxed potential the same way those totals are unlikely. And keep in mind the pure qpf bomb it took to get that. So a 1.5" qpf system would be a 3-10" event region wide by the same measure. The time of year is going to take its pound of flesh here unfortunately. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:37 PM, psuhoffman said:

Thing about 58 it shows the limitations of the time of year. Even with everything coming together for an HECS totals in the UHI were muted and that would only be worse probably now.  Was incredibly rate and elevation dependent. It took incredible qpf totals to get that snowfall. I know around here the 30" was from 4" qpf. So way below 10-1 even here with elevation. 

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DC got 5"... so its still a good storm even though N and W did much better

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:38 PM, Ji said:
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:33 PM, psuhoffman said:
I'm glad HM said it because I was looking at the setup and it reminded me of 1958 but I wasn't going to be the one to bring that up. 
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Hm bringing up 1958>jb 1958

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Oh man...the ramp up to disappointment rate for yall with this one might be the 1958 of failing.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:37 PM, psuhoffman said:

Thing about 58 it shows the limitations of the time of year. Even with everything coming together for an HECS totals in the UHI were muted and that would only be worse probably now.  Was incredibly rate and elevation dependent. It took incredible qpf totals to get that snowfall. I know around here the 30" was from 4" qpf. So way below 10-1 even here with elevation. 

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But I think a lot of that precip fell as rain before changing over to snow.

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Jandurin

Jandurin

Posted
Posted
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:43 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:38 PM, Jandurin said:
how likely is it to get 4" qpf in mid-winter though
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That would be spring btw

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I know but psu said that it showed how bad rates were or whatever but that's not really fair. It's a different kind of storm entirely because it's basically a different season.

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MountainGeek

MountainGeek

Posted
Posted
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:30 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Anything is still possible(right) but this "threat" is likely already gone for the MA I-95 and east crew, other than some frontside/backside snow tv. It could still work out for some accumulating snow N and W of the cities, and of course it's probably bomb cyclone IV for NE PA and New England. 

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I'd rather hear about the ICON every day for a month than hear the media blathering the term "bomb cyclone" yet again. Worst thing to happen in pop weather since TWC decided winter storms were hurricanes and needed names.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:15 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:
  On 3/15/2018 at 4:11 PM, 87storms said:
this looks quite a bit different than the last one though.  interior northeast would do really well with the current track.  the low is much further north, but we also won't get precip hole'd with this setup either.
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Yeah, storm looked the same for interior NW areas 5 days out last system too. That was my point and we all saw how that evolved right?

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yea, i'm not sure this would get crushed south like the last one.  that last vort skirted off the sc coast.  this looks more like a west to east coast to coast trajectory with a secondary low forming along the coast, we just have no idea where or how far north the primary will go.

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