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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 6:37 PM, LP08 said:

The changes this run compared to 12z yesterday in canada are pretty drastic...what happened to all that ridging?

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Yeah the NA ridging breaks down much sooner and the 50-50 low quickly escapes north. Seeing this trend over several op runs now, and its significantly different than what was being advertised in previous runs. This really does look dead now.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 6:52 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the NA ridging breaks down much sooner and the 50-50 low quickly escapes north. Seeing this trend over several op runs now, and its significantly different than what was being advertised in previous runs. This really does look dead now.

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Pretty amazing. We get screwed on the March 12-14 storm due to the -NAO holding, and we get screwed by this storm by the -NAO NOT holding. Incredible.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 6:52 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the NA ridging breaks down much sooner and the 50-50 low quickly escapes north. Seeing this trend over several op runs now, and its significantly different than what was being advertised in previous runs. This really does look dead now.

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Just glanced over the GEFS and the setup up top has really morphed. Will glance at the EPS when it comes out shortly but the Euro op run gives me little hope. If we are going to score from this system now, chances are it won't be from the blocking and 50/50 we were keying on originally. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 7:34 PM, showmethesnow said:

Just glanced over the GEFS and the setup up top has really morphed. Will glance at the EPS when it comes out shortly but the Euro op run gives me little hope. If we are going to score from this system now, chances are it won't be from the blocking and 50/50 we were keying on originally. 

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Better now than Saturday or Sunday for a change.  I was getting a little too excited mentally

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 7:21 PM, losetoa6 said:

Still close enough to keep me tracking . My guess is Eps will still show some hits.  Far from over .

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Other than the Euro all other guidance looked better at 12z compared to the previous few cycles. GFS and cmc both came in further south than there previous runs. I don't think this is done yet. Still not optimistic but you never you. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 7:34 PM, showmethesnow said:

Just glanced over the GEFS and the setup up top has really morphed. Will glance at the EPS when it comes out shortly but the Euro op run gives me little hope. If we are going to score from this system now, chances are it won't be from the blocking and 50/50 we were keying on originally. 

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Exactly. The whole premise of how this could work was based on the block and the 50-50. Both those features are now evaporating prior to the approach of the low. Actually seeing a 50-50 High now lol. I don't think we will be getting much help from the chaotic and mostly crappy Pac, so outside of the better look in the NA returning in future runs, I don't have much hope that we can get a favorable track.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 7:42 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Exactly. The whole premise of how this could work was based on the block and the 50-50. Both those features are now evaporating prior to the approach of the low. Actually seeing a 50-50 High now lol. I don't think we will be getting much help from the chaotic and mostly crappy Pac, so outside of the better look in the NA returning in future runs, I don't have much hope that we can get a favorable track.

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So when we really need the 50/50 low it disappears...whereas last time it suppressed TOO much...sweet mercy above!

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 8:10 PM, BristowWx said:

The ones off the coast are preferred.  

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Sure.

I just wonder how the ones off the coast got to that position. If it's through the South East , they would probably be good for us. But if it's from a transfer from Ohio then it would look like the past couple of blizzards for new england..lol

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 8:15 PM, Chris78 said:

Sure.

I just wonder how the ones off the coast got to that position. If it's through the South East , they would probably be good for us. But if it's from a transfer from Ohio then it would look like the past couple of blizzards for new england..lol

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I know you know...Oliver Obvious...I think we will see some really close solutions but far N. MD will have the real shot at this when the chips are cashed in. It just makes sense unless that 50/50 is being modeled incorrectly.  

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Ji

Ji

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Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 8:20 PM, BristowWx said:
I know you know...Oliver Obvious...I think we will see some really close solutions but far N. MD will have the real shot at this when the chips are cashed in. It just makes sense unless that 50/50 is being modeled incorrectly.  
Saw on twitter that eps all over the place with 50/50
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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 8:22 PM, Ji said:
  On 3/14/2018 at 8:20 PM, BristowWx said:
I know you know...Oliver Obvious...I think we will see some really close solutions but far N. MD will have the real shot at this when the chips are cashed in. It just makes sense unless that 50/50 is being modeled incorrectly.  
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Saw on twitter that eps all over the place with 50/50

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Too soon to give up or get excited.  Take us to the ledge is what will happen. I hate needing the 50/50 to be perfect.  It’s an inherently imperfect feature.  Move it 50 miles either way and we lose..more or less. 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 8:20 PM, BristowWx said:

I know you know...Oliver Obvious...I think we will see some really close solutions but far N. MD will have the real shot at this when the chips are cashed in. It just makes sense unless that 50/50 is being modeled incorrectly.  

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Looking at the individual members the northern tier definitely is favored But There were many members that snowed on the majority of the sub forum. It would be great for a hail Mary region wide event. This is an imby hobby but it's always better when everyone is in the game.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 8:42 PM, Chris78 said:

Looking at the individual members the northern tier definitely is favored But There were many members that snowed on the majority of the sub forum. It would be great for a hail Mary region wide event. This is an imby hobby but it's always better when everyone is in the game.

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I see where you are located.  You should be enthused.  I need the low to form at ORF...you have more wiggle room unless it’s supressed.  I often get screwed either way.  I never expect to do as well as you but I hope to do better than EZF or RIC..I can’t even manage that.  Funny

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 8:49 PM, BristowWx said:

I see where you are located.  You should be enthused.  I need the low to form at ORF...you have more wiggle room unless it’s supressed.  I often get screwed either way.  I never expect to do as well as you but I hope to do better than EZF or RIC..I can’t even manage that.  Funny

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Lol. Yes ussually I'm in a great spot when we have a winter with a stj but the last few winters have been pretty brutal up here too.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted

So...we're still in the game? I wonder if the models are gonna play jumpy again (please no...if it's gonna fail, fail...don't torture us!) And if we have to rely on timing...I'm sure we'll get a few different looks...

This is becoming like watching a football game...And in our case, we're already down three touchdowns in the 2nd quarter, and the team hasn't been able to come back and win all year...lol You know it's not technically over, but you've lost so many times that every score closer is agony because ya don't have much confidence it's gonna work out (although this threat I'm keeping a safe emotional distance, lol)

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