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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 10:33 PM, 87storms said:

The track is a little north for my liking but the storm is still there.  Doesn’t look like a lot of gulf influence but that could change with a more southerly track.

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I'll toss this GFS run. With the 50/50 and HP pressing down from Canada, the switch from South Carolina to Virginia for the track is suspect.

The 00 or 06 will correct.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 10:44 PM, BristowWx said:

What do you fear most this early in the game...suppressed or amped and north?  Just curious.

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Weak is probably the biggest fear. Pretty strong 50/50 in place and the track of the shortwave isn't optimal for amplification. But it's way out there so anything can go wrong or right. There might not even be a storm to talk about. Then think about yesterday...when that first showed up and what it actually was were two very different things. I won't have any "investment" in this possible event until we're at least inside of 96 hours. 

I think the upside is good though. It's late March so the upper levels are prone to close stuff off. I have a hunch that it's going to evolve into a closed ULL. If it does, a W-E trajectory is totally fine. Don't need much room out in front.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 10:59 PM, Bob Chill said:

Weak is probably the biggest fear. Pretty strong 50/50 in place and the track of the shortwave isn't optimal for amplification. But it's way out there so anything can go wrong or right. There might not even be a storm to talk about. Then think about yesterday...when that first showed up and what it actually was were two very different things. I won't have any "investment" in this possible event until we're at least inside of 96 hours. 

I think the upside is good though. It's late March so the upper levels are prone to close stuff off. I have a hunch that it's going to evolve into a closed ULL. If it does, a W-E trajectory is totally fine. Don't need much room out in front.

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Thanks.  I like the fact that for now there isn’t a lakes trough pushing down on this.  There is a cold high pressing down.  

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 10:59 PM, Bob Chill said:

Weak is probably the biggest fear. Pretty strong 50/50 in place and the track of the shortwave isn't optimal for amplification. But it's way out there so anything can go wrong or right. There might not even be a storm to talk about. Then think about yesterday...when that first showed up and what it actually was were two very different things. I won't have any "investment" in this possible event until we're at least inside of 96 hours. 

I think the upside is good though. It's late March so the upper levels are prone to close stuff off. I have a hunch that it's going to evolve into a closed ULL. If it does, a W-E trajectory is totally fine. Don't need much room out in front.

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Yea I kinda feel like a more southerly track as it leaves Cali and enters the plains could allow for more amplification. It looked a little bit sheared but it’s also still 6-7 days away so it’s nice to have a storm.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 11:05 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

We have been chasing 5-10 days away for 6 weeks. Probably the worst model season in 5-7 years. How many other "sciences" evolve backward ?

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We've been chasing 5-10 days away because we haven't had short range threats because the last two years have sucked. Don't you think I would rather be nowcasting with comments like "omg I can't see my pool deck it's snowing so hard, at least 2"/hr and 12" otg!!!"???  

Models aren't expected to be right with details from 5-10 days so your continued bashing of them for showing threats at range is silly. The fact they lose the storms typically around day 5 when we get within their expected useful range is a win not a fail for NWP.  Again the purpose of NWP isn't to let snow weenies pick out the next HECS from 12 days away.  The gfs just had a rough week but overall the guidance hasn't had a consensus hit inside Day 5 for us. They aren't failing our weather is.  

Finally, and this is the most important, why do you feel the need to say this same thing over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over every time we have a threat????  Seriously I'm not being snarky I want to know. What is your agenda?  Do you want to stop us from tracking?  Are you fighting some government conspiracy?  Do you get paid every time you say it?  We all know your stance on NWP and tracking snow. And you know ours.  So why do you keep starting this same never ending argument every other week?  What is your goal???

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

GEFS upping the ante. Over half get meaningful precip/snow and the way they do it all looks the same for the most part. Very good consensus for long leads. Only a couple rainers in the mix so oddly...snow is the favored precip type by a large margin. That's pretty good for late March. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 11:35 PM, psuhoffman said:

We've been chasing 5-10 days away because we haven't had short range threats because the last two years have sucked. Don't you think I would rather be nowcasting with comments like "omg I can't see my pool deck it's snowing so hard, at least 2"/hr and 12" otg!!!"???  

Models aren't expected to be right with details from 5-10 days so your continued bashing of them for showing threats at range is silly. The fact they lose the storms typically around day 5 when we get within their expected useful range is a win not a fail for NWP.  Again the purpose of NWP isn't to let snow weenies pick out the next HECS from 12 days away.  The gfs just had a rough week but overall the guidance hasn't had a consensus hit inside Day 5 for us. They aren't failing our weather is.  

Finally, and this is the most important, why do you feel the need to say this same thing over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over every time we have a threat????  Seriously I'm not being snarky I want to know. What is your agenda?  Do you want to stop us from tracking?  Are you fighting some government conspiracy?  Do you get paid every time you say it?  We all know your stance on NWP and tracking snow. And you know ours.  So why do you keep starting this same never ending argument every other week?  What is your goal???

 

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You are trying to reason with a curmudgeon who went on a campaign blaming a platinum RTD sensor for DCA's warmer temps relative to surrounding areas, rather than accept that it is an UHI.

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 12:08 AM, Jandurin said:

If we get a big snowstorm this is going down as weirdest winter for me

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It would be pretty funny if the DC/Balt corridor gets our biggest storm of the season in late March after everyone wrote off winter.  

My early blooming trees are waiting for one day in 60s to pop open...seems like they’ll be waiting a while for that.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 11:41 PM, Bob Chill said:

GEFS upping the ante. Over half get meaningful precip/snow and the way they do it all looks the same for the most part. Very good consensus for long leads. Only a couple rainers in the mix so oddly...snow is the favored precip type by a large margin. That's pretty good for late March. 

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Which means that if it were to fail, the higher failure risk would be, again suprression?....(or a suppressed hook-around like this week?)

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 12:31 AM, nj2va said:

It would be pretty funny if the DC/Balt corridor gets our biggest storm of the season in late March after everyone wrote off winter.  

My early blooming trees are waiting for one day in 60s to pop open...seems like they’ll be waiting a while for that.

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Better they wait than open and freeze.  Slower is better

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 12:34 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Which means that if it were to fail, the higher failure risk would be, again suprression?....(or a suppressed hook-around like this week?)

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Hard to believe we are talking suppression in late March.  I can’t see it happening like that. I can see the low going over top of DCA and redeveloping and hitting the NE.  Again.

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dtk

dtk

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 11:05 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

We have been chasing 5-10 days away for 6 weeks. Probably the worst model season in 5-7 years. How many other "sciences" evolve backward ?

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Great post.  I'm pretty sure the global models have set monthly records for day 5/6 skill in the NH yet again over the past couple of months.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 3/14/2018 at 12:37 AM, BristowWx said:

Hard to believe we are talking suppression in late March.  I can’t see it happening like that. I can see the low going over top of DCA and redeveloping and hitting the NE.  Again.

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That was actually the second nightmare scenario that popped into my head, lol (December 2010 was horrible) Would be so typical (I think that's the only way we HAVEN'T failed this winter). So I wonder what warning signs we should look for that it could go that way? (or is it just last minute track details? smh)

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