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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 3:30 PM, Bob Chill said:

On another note, is anyone pins this thread I will cut their digital throat

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And then after they digitally bleed out, I will use their husk like shell of a body to store all of the printed out snow maps from this year.    And then I will delete this thread.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 3:39 PM, showmethesnow said:

Extrapolating from the 24 hr GFS this should be an epic hit. Best guess at this point is a 972 mb low just off of OC with 40 to 50 mph winds reaching into the cities. Probably a high ratio storm where we see 1 1/2 to 2' totals region wide.

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You are not long for this forum. :fulltilt:

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 2:01 PM, MillvilleWx said:

 


I’m trying not to get invested, but this stuff is engrained in my DNA to track until the bitter end. Emphasis on bitter


.

 

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  On 3/13/2018 at 2:21 PM, psuhoffman said:

Welcome to the club... We go down with the ship. 

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I'm with you guys--try as I may  I know I'm not gonna be able to peel my eyes away from this one...But this time I refuse to stress over it and will watch with VERY tempered expectations...I think I could honestly laugh if it turns into a 4th Nor'easter that we somehow miss...missing three would certainly numb the pain of missing a fourth. But, for now...I will occasionally track. (But if I see a GL low I'm out, lol) But FOUR Nor'easters?....its gotta break eventually...

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 3:16 PM, stormtracker said:

Remember the excitement in December?  In late January about the awesome -NAO.  How much did we get out of that, I can't remember.   Pepperidge Farm remembers though.  **** this winter. 

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1942!!!!

im kidding but in the back of my mind I do know something like that or 1956 or 1958 or 1964.... years where some really really late fluke hit up here will eventually happen again. It's even more rare in DC but a couple did hit with solid snow there too.  And 1942 is the ultimate example because it was a shutout winter until that 10-30" storm hit late March. 

Those have become increasing rare the last few years aside. Spring snow was way more common pre 1970. But on the other hand march blocking has become more rare too. It was way more common when march snow was more common. Obvious link. We have blocking now so perhaps looking at the 40s through 60s isn't a bad analog. 

But im also not blind to how long the odds are. We're talking a 1/30 year type event now. But those odds aren't impossible just highly unlikely. Their enough to keep me somewhat interested even if I know a fail is 90% likely the outcome. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Actually not a bad look at hour 144. Upstairs looks a little better where the 50/50 looks to setup in a little more favorable location. Shortwave isn't digging as much but it is stronger and we are seeing better ridging develop in front of it. Ridging should hopefully induce better digging a little later in the run.

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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 3:54 PM, frd said:

Brrrr

 

 

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So far through 12 days, the mean temperature for March at DCA is 42.7.  February finished at 45.3.  Last year was only the 7th time ever that March finished colder than February in DC.  If it happens again this year, it would be the first time back-to-back years had that happen since 1890-91.

Other years were 1887, 1909, 1960, 1984 and 1932 which has been an analog that has popped up often since last year's hurricane season.

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 4:07 PM, psuhoffman said:

1942!!!!

im kidding but in the back of my mind I do know something like that or 1956 or 1958 or 1964.... years where some really really late fluke hit up here will eventually happen again. It's even more rare in DC but a couple did hit with solid snow there too.  And 1942 is the ultimate example because it was a shutout winter until that 10-30" storm hit late March. 

Those have become increasing rare the last few years aside. Spring snow was way more common pre 1970. But on the other hand march blocking has become more rare too. It was way more common when march snow was more common. Obvious link. We have blocking now so perhaps looking at the 40s through 60s isn't a bad analog. 

But im also not blind to how long the odds are. We're talking a 1/30 year type event now. But those odds aren't impossible just highly unlikely. Their enough to keep me somewhat interested even if I know a fail is 90% likely the outcome. 

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Agree and I am watching. Interesting how it took SEVERAL misses to finally get a hit down this way, although I know it torqued the screws into the N/NE areas. Maybe THIS one will cover the entire area for once this winter.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2018 at 4:25 PM, psuhoffman said:

Fringed :(

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Guess I shouldn't bother looking in my local then. :)

Thought we saw a small move towards the EPS here. Blocking came in a little weaker. 50/50 was positioned better. And it looks as if the GFS is now starting to consider the possibility of breaking that blocking down in this time frame.

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