ZeeTwentyFour Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor???Wat...?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: How come Jan 2000 is impossible? Models have improved too much? That was like a 250 mile error. There was another issue there which I forgot such as a damaged RAOB issue at one of the offices that was unnoticed or a bad wind profiler injected into the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Remote but this is a setup where the models have screwed up before. They can view northern stream shortwaves as kickers and be wrong or misplace the low centers slightly due to convection. You won’t see a January 2000 type error but a 70-100 mile gaff is possible IF and i mean BIG IF the models are off by 70-100 miles.... ok i will just end it right there... no seriously that would be a major bust for the area but in a positive way for us snow lovers.... the general public would be furious!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: So you're saying there's a chance? See SnowGoose69's reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Has anyone seen the water vapor loop. Looks like the northern stream seems so he much more southwest then modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Its amazing how similar the track is to Jan 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Dark Star said: See SnowGoose69's reply. OK lets just be hypothetical here lets say if this does end up 70-100 further WEST what would be the amts be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Has anyone seen the water vapor loop. Looks like the northern stream seems so he much more southwest then modeled Yea, the NE forum was talking about that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 What I always loved about weather forecasting is how small changes earlier in time can lead to huge outcome differences later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: OK lets just be hypothetical here lets say if this does end up 70-100 further WEST what would be the amts be? It’s hard to say. As pointed out by some Mets in the SNE forum the higher res models continue to show strong frontogenesis over central CT into central LI where another big band of snow may setup. If this has a track error couple with the usual mistake of placing that frontogensis 20-40 Miles too far to the east it easily puts NYC and NERN NJ into decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 FWIW, sst's in the 60's-70's in the path of the low - if the Low doesn't move west any more, maybe the precip shield will expand westward...the sst anomalies appear high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 WOW the JMA says hello NYC wanna play a little ball.... .50 QPF contour all the way back to NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, ZeeTwentyFour said: Wat...? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk Clearly you have never seen the movie Animal House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That was like a 250 mile error. There was another issue there which I forgot such as a damaged RAOB issue at one of the offices that was unnoticed or a bad wind profiler injected into the models I think up until the very end the models were keying in on the wrong shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Has anyone seen the water vapor loop. Looks like the northern stream seems so he much more southwest then modeled I mentioned that earlier this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I mentioned that earlier this morningWhat would that imply?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: I mentioned that earlier this morning I feel like in every storm that happens. And sometimes it's real (see February 2009, where Philly got into record breaking snows when they were expected to be in foot range), and sometimes it isn't. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Ukie looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeTwentyFour Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Clearly you have never seen the movie Animal House.Nope, sorry. Youngin here.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Ukie looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 If these newer westward models are correct, NWS nailed this storm (and RJay not so much ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, North and West said: What would that imply? . it could imply, if it continued to dive down to the south that the southern stream could bend back to the west for a cleaner and quicker phase....COULD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I was just thinking where the f is the euro!!! 30 minutes duh It’s very important to follow trends from the past 2 storms. Best deform 50 miles west of forecast. That puts western LI in the game. your going to need to get into decent rates for accumulations. So hours of light snow will not cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Interesting to see what Upton does with its afternoon package as far as WSW are concerned. Can they possibly be extended westward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Interesting to see what Upton does with its afternoon package as far as WSW are concerned. Can they possibly be extended westward? No. Still advisory stuff as modeled. However they must be alarmed by the West ticks here although they went high to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Fwiw(not much) 16z hrrrrrrrrrrrrr west early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Fwiw(not much) 16z hrrrrrrrrrrrrr west early on. If the rest of the 12z suite is leaning west with the SLP and the QPF contours are moving west too how can it not be worth much? Kind of reverses the 0z trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 HRRR is ticking slightly west (and slightly stronger) over the past few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: If the rest of the 12z suite is leaning west with the SLP and the QPF contours are moving west too how can it not be worth much? Kind of reverses the 0z trends. That's more of shot at the HRRR than anything... definitely good trends, however very very late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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