mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 RGEM looks slightly west of 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: You can see the naked swirl S of HSE as weakening convection peels away (click on gif if it doesn't loop). A lot of guidance is moving the low w/ that cluster of showers but I suspect we'll see trends away from that. Already some hints of a more dominant western low on past few runs of HRRR, HRRRx and RAP. What location is HSE ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, sferic said: What location is HSE ? cape hatteras...outer banks of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: You can see the naked swirl S of HSE as weakening convection peels away (click on gif if it doesn't loop). A lot of guidance is moving the low w/ that cluster of showers but I suspect we'll see trends away from that. Already some hints of a more dominant western low on past few runs of HRRR, HRRRx and RAP. Now of what significance will come of this... if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM LI gets some good bands for a few hours... Well see how much precip that amounts to. 30-50 miles west would have been huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Now of what significance will come of this... if any?If the western lp system is the one which becomes the focus.. Things shift W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Now of what significance will come of this... if any? If the western lp system is the one which becomes the focus.. Things shift W. and could that have correlation with the northern stream diving down on the backside of the southern vort quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 You can see the RGEM also with the double low idea as there is the "main" one at 70W and a second LP circulation at around 74W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 12Z ICON also shifted slightly west. .5 QPF line appears right at Nassau/Suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Final call: NYC: 1.7" LGA: 1.2" EWR: 2: JFK" 2.2" ISP: 5" HPN: 3" FOK: 9" PHI: .5" MMU: 2" BDR: 4.5" DXR: 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 GFS looks about 25 miles west of 6z through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 .5 qpf makes it back into Nassau county (barely) on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: .5 qpf makes it back into Nassau county (barely) on gfs this is really going to come down to where the LOW forms and tracks early on... as purdue nicely showed us before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: .5 qpf makes it back into Nassau county (barely) on gfs Nice uptick for eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ace said: Nice uptick for eastern areas that is a pretty significant west shift with the .5QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: Final call: Those numbers look good to me but what about where people live, say SWF or POU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 No one ever mentions final call numbers down the shore either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 In Toms River for work currently. Car temp is 40. Overcast with a decent breeze blowing in from the ocean. This all means nothing; but there's always hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Observation: Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks. Northern energy now in Ohio. Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE. Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Observation: Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks. Northern energy now in Ohio. Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE. Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough? What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range? It happened less than a week ago in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: It happened less than a week ago in NJ. No they weren't, maybe in QPF but not where it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Observation: Coastal radar echoes now merging with inland radar echoes right along outer banks. Northern energy now in Ohio. Water vapor imagery shows trough beginning to rotate, bending NW to SE. Can the northern energy merge with the southern system fast enough? So you're saying there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: It happened less than a week ago in NJ. No it wasn't lol.. Heaviest amounts were always suppose to be W of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What are the odds that every piece of model guidance is wrong at this range? Remote but this is a setup where the models have screwed up before. They can view northern stream shortwaves as kickers and be wrong or misplace the low centers slightly due to convection. You won’t see a January 2000 type error but a 70-100 mile gaff is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Remote but this is a setup where the models have screwed up before. They can view northern stream shortwaves as kickers and be wrong or misplace the low centers slightly due to convection. You won’t see a January 2000 type error but a 70-100 mile gaff is possible How come Jan 2000 is impossible? Models have improved too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 LOL the GFS, JMA etc have jumped 50 miles west in one run with the QPF, E NJ is back in the game now IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I am NOT saying this is the Jan 5th blizzard, but look at the NWS storm archive page and look at the track. Pretty much identical but obviously this will not be as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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