mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The SLP ends up west of 6Z at around 40N 69W. Precip shield is not great given the weird path of the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3k is interesting for Suffolk at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 We need that LP to get tugged NW quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Geographically I'm 35-40 miles NNW from the Bronx border and I've received 32.2 inches so far this month. It's that close. And I'm 50 miles due north of midtown and am over 2' for the month, places ~20 miles north (and 300' higher up) are at 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looks like the 3k may go sub 960 bear BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Goes due east from 37N... a little odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: We need that LP to get tugged NW quicker. well someone in here stated that the LOW was forming at 33N 76W.. where did the NAM initializes at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I believe we have two posters out on the far East end, one near Riverhead and the other near Orient. Both of them are in for a big snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 What could have been... Needed this to close off about 75-100 miles further West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: He also didn't mention Boxing Day which gave 20" amounts to a large portion of Western LI. Or Feb '06 which was over 2 feet in the immediate metro area. Feb 2010 and Jan 2011 as well and many other double digit storms. The last 15 years has been a Golden Area of snow for the coast, no question that the coasties have been spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What could have been... Needed this to close off about 75-100 miles further West Look at hr25.... weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Look at hr25.... weird. Yeah that is odd. Not sure if that's just model error or what. That's around when the CCB makes its closest approach to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3k NAM is slightly better for western LI and western CT. May be noise but a slight uptick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Not bad in terms of qpf but I think this is high all around, particularly factoring in BL temps and when precip is lighter.... I forecasted a minimal event for LI and basically a non-event for NYC. I think the high end is around 6" with this... When does the NWS usually drop the winter storm warnings? NWS calling for 4 to 7 here but only the 3k NAM has as much as 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I believe we have two posters out on the far East end, one near Riverhead and the other near Orient. Both of them are in for a big snowfall. Sag Harbor here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: When does the NWS usually drop the winter storm warnings? NWS calling for 4 to 7 here but only the 3k NAM has as much as 5. 4pm maybe 1150ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 If I'm just waking up from a coma and this is the first thing I see, I don't even consider the possibility of a missed phase. Kind of remarkable how we're managing to avoid it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 4pm maybe 1150ish Thanks. Unless they are seeing something we are not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Thanks. Unless they are seeing something we are not I honestly doubt they drop wsw for Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I mean... come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Going to be a beast, sub 999mb already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Unless they are seeing something we are not I honestly doubt they drop wsw for Suffolk Yeah, eastern Suffolk will certainly stay under a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Unless they are seeing something we are not I honestly doubt they drop wsw for Suffolk The could possibly drop Western Suffolk from the Warning, but I think that's highly unlikely. Most guidance gives at least the Eastern 2/3rds of Suffolk warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: I mean... come on. It's not really missing the phase, it's that the trough doesn't go negatively tilted fast enough so the system makes a wide turn. That's why Eastern New England gets hit. It's a late capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I mean... come on. You can see the Northern stream act as a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The 3k NAM has some wrap around snow on Wednesday thanks to close proximity with the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: You can see the Northern stream act as a kicker. It's not really kicking the storm East. If that was a true kicker, this storm would have missed Boston. The problem with this system from the beginning is that it's always wavered between a glancing blow and a total miss. A big hit for the entire forum was never really on the table for this one, at least not in the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The RGEM remains bullish with an inverted trough type feature over the interior. The NAM and Euro has hinted at this as well. That's why parts of interior NJ are forecasted to get 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 35 minutes ago, gravitylover said: And I'm 50 miles due north of midtown and am over 2' for the month, places ~20 miles north (and 300' higher up) are at 3'. LOL. Dude. In Monroe I had 42" between Friday and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 You can see the naked swirl S of HSE as weakening convection peels away (click on gif if it doesn't loop). A lot of guidance is moving the low w/ that cluster of showers but I suspect we'll see trends away from that. Already some hints of a more dominant western low on past few runs of HRRR, HRRRx and RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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