NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I understand, and thats good but the southern stream looks identical to me. Kind of trivial at this stage, but let's hope we have a miracle early phase. It could be nothing, just thought that the Euro looked a little far Southeast with that feature as compared to reality. I understand that at best it's a very minor difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Paragon said: You know those people saying that "the coast has gotten lucky the past few years" blah blah forget that Western Long Island hasn't done all much better than average. JFK snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, and the only two historic snowstorms we've had since 2000 are PD2 and Jan 2016. (historic defined as 20"+) This is extremely inaccurate man. Just wrong a million ways. First, historic is not 20+, that’s absurd. Next, w LI is well above average since 2000, it’s not even up for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, psv88 said: This is extremely inaccurate man. Just wrong a million ways. First, historic is not 20+, that’s absurd. Next, w LI is well above average since 2000, it’s not even up for debate. Yeah, way above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The beaches are going to have to deal with even more erosion. I took a ride on Island Beach State Park, and the waves had made it all the way to the dunes. The Inlet is pretty damaged as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: This is extremely inaccurate man. Just wrong a million ways. First, historic is not 20+, that’s absurd. Next, w LI is well above average since 2000, it’s not even up for debate. He also didn't mention Boxing Day which gave 20" amounts to a large portion of Western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 45 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Developing system is now near 33N 76W @1003mb. Let's see if we can stay above 70W. The system would have to take a NE track to get to that point correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 55 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: They are saying that there is a 10% chance of anyone seeing that much snow. For the record, they actually busted too low with the last storm with regards to this product in Western locations. Yea I completely understand the purpose of the image above .... it just seems really high to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yea I completely understand the purpose of the image above .... it just seems really high to me. I agree. What percentage of the EPS and GEFS members show that kind of hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 SREF still show several inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: SREF still show several inches for the area. East of 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Grasping at straws, I know, but the main difference I see between the 13z mesoanalysis and the 7hr 6Z NAM prog is the 552 and 558dm lines are higher along the east coast (over southern DE and riding the southeast coast as opposed to the tip of the Delmarva and off the coast respectively) we'll see if that's reflected in 12z guidance shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: East of 03z. Still a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: Not bad in terms of qpf but I think this is high all around, particularly factoring in BL temps and when precip is lighter.... I forecasted a minimal event for LI and basically a non-event for NYC. I think the high end is around 6" with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Not bad in terms of qpf but I think this is high all around, particularly factoring in BL temps and when precip is lighter.... I forecasted a minimal event for LI and basically a non-event for NYC. I think the high end is around 6" with this... Just when the pattern looked great for the NYC area. It's hilarious how we couldn't get a big snowstorm. HM thinks a 4th noreaster is possible next week. Hopefully we cash in on that one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Just when the pattern looked great for the NYC area. It's hilarious how we couldn't get a big snowstorm. HM thinks a 4th noreaster is possible next week. Hopefully we cash in on that one . The ECMWF has such a storm on 3/20-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Just when the pattern looked great for the NYC area. It's hilarious how we couldn't get a big snowstorm. HM thinks a 4th noreaster is possible next week. Hopefully we cash in on that one . Yea honestly there will be snow in the air for a while, I just think too much of a BL/ISR issue down at the coast for it to amount to much...Best rates are confined way out east but that's also where BL temps will be highest. The light to moderate snows will struggle to accumulate/keep pace with melting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 if anyone is looking for that straw to grasp....the northern stream looks a bit further west (on the WV loop) than modeled and the 12Z Nam at 3 hours is a good bit further west as compared to the 6Z at 9 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Just when the pattern looked great for the NYC area. It's hilarious how we couldn't get a big snowstorm. HM thinks a 4th noreaster is possible next week. Hopefully we cash in on that one . Hate to keep but this is simply not true. Just because NYC proper didn't jackpot for any of these events doesn't mean that the "New York City" area didn't receive a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The 12z NAM is a bit more amplified, this run probably comes a tick closer to the coast, but it's not going to be a significant jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Precip shuns east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Hate to keep but this is simply not true. Just because NYC proper didn't jackpot for any of these events doesn't mean that the "New York City" area didn't receive a big snowstorm. Yeah a 2' storm in March no less. Subsidence was a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Hate to keep but this is simply not true. Just because NYC proper didn't jackpot for any of these events doesn't mean that the "New York City" area didn't receive a big snowstorm. Geographically I'm 35-40 miles NNW from the Bronx border and I've received 32.2 inches so far this month. It's that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Actually ends up drier overall than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looks to get captured but just a but too far east for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Actually ends up drier overall than 06z. which makes no sense given a slightly further west track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: which makes no sense given a slightly further west track... Should have been better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: which makes no sense given a slightly further west track... SLP is not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The 12z NAM was a step back from the 6z NAM. Overall development was a bit slower and slightly to the east of the 6z run. It increasingly looks like this storm will take a track somewhat to the south and east of a somewhat less intense but significant eastern New England snowstorm of March 12-14, 1939. That storm brought 11.1" snow to Boston, 10.8" to Worcester, 12.0" to Providence, 8.5" to Hyannis, and 21.9" to Portland (parts of Maine received > 2 feet of snow). NYC received 2.5" snow, Setauket 4.0", and New London 6.4". A trace was recorded in Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: SLP is not west. with the northern stream coming down the backside of the southern stream quicker this run that SLP should of been slightly further WEST by maybe 20-25 miles and the western pecip shield is lacking... just saying... with it just east and i mean slightly east of BM that shield should be more expansive to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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