Brasiluvsnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 This was / has been another tough one to deal with as far as tracking it,,,,,,what a painful winter in that regard ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Euro has another snow event next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Wwa here for 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 50 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has another snow event next week Next week, you mean right after the weekend? It's supposed to be in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Upton still has 7" for Western Suffolk to the Hamptons, so I'm still confused about a bust. Their discussion mentions there are still some deviations in the forecast track but they're not budging. Which models are still swinging wide right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Wwa here for 2-4" 2 minutes ago, swataz said: Upton still has 7" for Western Suffolk to the Hamptons, so I'm still confused about a bust. Their discussion mentions there are still some deviations in the forecast track but they're not budging. Which models are still swinging wide right? 7” in western Suffolk isn’t a bad call at this point... even the UKMET has .50Qpf back to NYC... minor shift west would get a moderate snowfall into parts of the metro esp east of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Wwa here for 2-4" Same here with 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: You know those people saying that "the coast has gotten lucky the past few years" blah blah forget that Western Long Island hasn't done all much better than average. JFK snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, and the only two historic snowstorms we've had since 2000 are PD2 and Jan 2016. (historic defined as 20"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: 7” in western Suffolk isn’t a bad call at this point... even the UKMET has .50Qpf back to NYC... minor shift west would get a moderate snowfall into parts of the metro esp east of the Hudson. Right. The way some people are talking on this thread you'd think that the storm is going to miss the area completely. Not every storm is going to be 25" and blizzard conditions. This one's going to be bad enough considering the heavy wet nature of the snow. I lost power for 2 days during the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 BTW what are they smoking.... I’d love to have some of it LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, swataz said: Right. The way some people are talking on this thread you'd think that the storm is going to miss the area completely. Not every storm is going to be 25" and blizzard conditions. This one's going to be bad enough considering the heavy wet nature of the snow. I lost power for 2 days during the last one. All it takes is 25-30 miles and NYC east is a 6” storm with some failing overnight making for a horrible morning commute. We’ll what happens today but I wouldn’t take it completely out of the realm of possibilities even the NWS is noting it with that potential high but low probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 37 minutes ago, Paragon said: Next week, you mean right after the weekend? It's supposed to be in the 50s. Not on the cmc , Ukie and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 42 minutes ago, allgame830 said: BTW what are they smoking.... I’d love to have some of it LOL They are saying that there is a 10% chance of anyone seeing that much snow. For the record, they actually busted too low with the last storm with regards to this product in Western locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Good idea to expect nothing in NYC, anything more would be a bonus, especially accumulating snow which the UHI, in part, killed during the past 2 storms. (Yes maybe a bit of the subsidence issue too but areas in westchester that were also in that area accumulated noticeably more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Oh well , this busted for me Sorry guys , I still like this out on ELI but that's no consolidation Theres a chance for 5 on the Jersey shore C LI and SECT Thats as far cry from the foot I liked there 7 days ago Happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 45 minutes ago, Paragon said: You know those people saying that "the coast has gotten lucky the past few years" blah blah forget that Western Long Island hasn't done all much better than average. JFK snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, and the only two historic snowstorms we've had since 2000 are PD2 and Jan 2016. (historic defined as 20"+) How much snow did you have for December 26, 2010? I would also argue that the North shore and South shore have very different long term climos. When people refer to the coast getting "lucky" they are generally referring to the South shore of LI and the far Eastern end which have all done very well the last 15-20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 NWS keeps upping things for Boston and I don't know why.... Yeah they're going to get smoked but upping to 12-22" when guidance is backing off? Could be banking on a more western track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Developing system is now near 33N 76W @1003mb. Let's see if we can stay above 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: NWS keeps upping things for Boston and I don't know why.... Yeah they're going to get smoked but upping to 12-22" when guidance is backing off? Could be banking on a more western track. The Euro had 8-12" in Boston and that is off the Stormvista maps which are more conservative. They should be right on the edge of the heaviest banding, and a last minute shift back to the West could easily put them into the higher range of that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NWS keeps upping things for Boston and I don't know why.... Yeah they're going to get smoked but upping to 12-22" when guidance is backing off? Could be banking on a more western track. They have to be. They still line 4 to 7 in SWCT yet no model shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looks like the 00z ECMWF was a bit too far Southeast with the 500mb low having it centered near the TN/GA border rather than closer to Nashville. It's not a huge difference, but every little tick counts when you're looking for a 50 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro had 8-12" in Boston and that is off the Stormvista maps which are more conservative. They should be right on the edge of the heaviest banding, and a last minute shift back to the West could easily put them into the higher range of that forecast. So take the high end of any guidance and double it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: So take the high end of any guidace and double it? I'm sure what you're asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like the 00z ECMWF was a bit too far Southeast with the 500mb low having it centered near the TN/GA border rather than closer to Nashville. It's not a huge difference, but every little tick counts when you're looking for a 50 mile shift. Identical. It's over lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Identical. It's over lol. Posts like this are not useful. And no it's not identical. It's close, but just a hair too far Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Oh well , this busted for me Sorry guys , I still like this out on ELI but that's no consolidation Theres a chance for 5 on the Jersey shore C LI and SECT Thats as far cry from the foot I liked there 7 days ago Happens Yeah a 'bust' on amounts but you saw the storm earlier than pretty much anyone else and stuck to your guns. The storm is still going to happen, maybe not with the intensity you thought but, a couple of inches causes chaos and mayhem in the metro area so your early call is still valid. A bust is only a bust if it doesn't happen at all and this one is only going to 'miss' by less than 100 miles and form 2 weeks out that's a pretty small margin to miss by. I say good job PB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Posts like this are not useful. And no it's not identical. It's close, but just a hair too far Southeast. It's identical in the south, if anything the northern stream has dug deeper than the Euro had . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It's identical in the south, if anything the northern stream has dug deeper than the Euro had . We want the Northern stream to dig as deep as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: We want the Northern stream to dig as deep as possible. I understand, and thats good but the southern stream looks identical to me. Kind of trivial at this stage, but let's hope we have a miracle early phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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