March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm Part 2

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The upper level pattern would suggest it’s not coming much further west.  However the incoming northern stream vort can interact just enough with the offshore system or on its own produce an area of snow.  2/2013 is the best example followed by December 2004 and December 1995.  Those two only produced about 3-4 inches but it wasnt modeled well in either case 

In March that would likely result in white rain unless that happens at night around the city. 

[NYCGreg]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Juno (Jan 2015) got 15” of snow back to me (I also missed that one in TX). It wasn’t a miss for anyone east of the Hudson. Central Park getting 10” doesn’t qualify as a miss. 

The 10" that Central Park got really was from snow that fell during the day.  Barely anything fell during the main event.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Juno (Jan 2015) got 15” of snow back to me (I also missed that one in TX). It wasn’t a miss for anyone east of the Hudson. Central Park getting 10” doesn’t qualify as a miss. 

It was all induced by the very late phase from about mid suffolk county west.  That looked like a bust til 9pm or so when that interaction occurred and the snow area expanded...oops read that as the 2013 event.  Yeah that was mostly due to a fluky mesoscale band that formed during the day 

[NYCGreg]

11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Nah, still ends up with the fishes. And our threat sleeps with them.

Amped, not amped, it all ends up the same way.  This one may be in play for parts of LI, but for the rest of the area it's bad baby bad.

[kat5hurricane]

59 minutes ago, seanick said:

Last storm we had 3 to 6 inches. That's not bad at all

A lot of areas in the immediate metro area got less than 3 inches while everybody east, west, south and north got more and a lot more in most places. It was that, the White Rain noreaster and this one being too far east. Could have been an epic pattern and NYC was in the screw zone in all 3 (will likely be for this one). Maybe we're just spoiled from the last 15 years of hits but this is the winter of what could have been.  Bleh, spring couldn't come soon enough.

[sferic]

It ain't over til the fat lady sings.

Right now, she's clearing her throat, let's see if she can sing.

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Nah, still ends up with the fishes. And our threat sleeps with them.

Ehh, not the fishes. It goes to Boston which typically cashes in during Nina winters. We’re due for a storm that demolishes them and leaves us dry this year. The 1/4 storm trended west last second, maybe this one can too, but it’s tough to get that lightning to strike twice. 

I know I’m above seasonal average so I have no right to whine, but I’m so ready for this disaster of a month to end. Yes, bring on backdoor and freezing Ambrose Jet season. 

[NYCGreg]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Ehh, not the fishes. It goes to Boston which typically cashes in during Nina winters. We’re due for a storm that demolishes them and leaves us dry this year. The 1/4 storm trended west last second, maybe this one can too, but it’s tough to get that lightning to strike twice. 

I know I’m above seasonal average so I have no right to whine, but I’m so ready for this disaster of a month to end. Yes, bring on backdoor and freezing Ambrose Jet season. 

If I had to choose one to trend one at the last minute, I'd much rather have that January storm than this one.  All snow, high ratios, great wind, nice snow totals here.  Short duration, but it was powerful from start to end.

[Meteoropoulos]

00z GFS slightly west and 2mb stronger, but not enough for appreciable snows for NYC. Eastern New England gets the goods. 

[jm1220]

Just now, NYCGreg said:

If I had to choose one to trend one at the last minute, I'd much rather have that January storm than this one.  All snow, high ratios, great wind, nice snow totals here.  Short duration, but it was powerful from start to end.

That storm was amazing here, no doubt. And not much of a trend can make that happen again. But that’s a big stretch at this point. 

I’m just in no mood for a weak rates system that struggles to accumulate more than an inch or so, and much better rates hang out 25-35 miles east in that last deform band, which comes onshore in eastern CT, RI, MA, eastern Suffolk where they whoop over multiple inches per hour. I’ll take Ambrose Jet in a second over that. 

[Rtd208]

13 minutes ago, sferic said:

It ain't over til the fat lady sings.

Right now, she's clearing her throat, let's see if she can sing.

Lalalalala

[NYCGreg]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That storm was amazing here, no doubt. And not much of a trend can make that happen again. But that’s a big stretch at this point. 

I’m just in no mood for a weak rates system that struggles to accumulate more than an inch or so, and much better rates hang out 25-35 miles east in that last deform band, which comes onshore in eastern CT, RI, MA, eastern Suffolk where they whoop over multiple inches per hour. I’ll take Ambrose Jet in a second over that. 

I guess we'll have to wait and see if that happens.  I guess there's always a chance at a last minute shocker here, but it's looking less and less likely with just about every model locking onto a solution that is just not favorable for most of the area, save parts of LI.  But hey, I guess I'm not the only one who doesn't want to watch others get crushed while we get basically nothing.

[Meteoropoulos]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Lalalalala

The Fat Lady is back stage at the after party already.

This one is over. Maybe the audience can demand an encore. Our only hope at this point. Lol

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

I guess we'll have to wait and see if that happens.  I guess there's always a chance at a last minute shocker here, but it's looking less and less likely with just about every model locking onto a solution that is just not favorable for most of the area, save parts of LI.  But hey, I guess I'm not the only one who doesn't want to watch others get crushed while we get basically nothing.

Not to say I don’t want to see them get crushed, but it sucks to have it happen like this when I have due 24”+ from loony bin HR GEM runs/Euro just from the last 2 storms. One of these days they’ll pay it back, when I’m down south again.  

[NYCGreg]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not to say I don’t want to see them get crushed, but it sucks to have it happen like this when I have due 24”+ from loony bin HR GEM runs/Euro just from the last 2 storms. One of these days they’ll pay it back, when I’m down south again.  

Nothing will ever stink more than January 2015, because being forecast to receive a "raging blizzard" and 2-3 feet of snow and basically having cloudy skies that night was the worst letdown I've experienced weather wise.  Missing a storm I was never forecast to get, or having a model or two miss stinks, but not nearly as bad as that did.  I can only speak about it now because we received that crusher in January 2016.

And at some point in the near future I may be moving to Phoenix.  I honestly don't know the next time I'll get to see snow without having to travel to do so.  Nonetheless, I still intend on coming back on this board and posting in the observation section of a storm every five minutes that my parents are under a very heavy band of snow.  

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Nothing will ever stink more than January 2015, because being forecast to receive a "raging blizzard" and 2-3 feet of snow and basically having cloudy skies that night was the worst letdown I've experienced weather wise.  Missing a storm I was never forecast to get, or having a model or two miss stinks, but not nearly as bad as that did.  I can only speak about it now because we received that crusher in January 2016.

And at some point in the near future I may be moving to Phoenix.  I honestly don't know the next time I'll get to see snow without having to travel to do so.  Nonetheless, I still intend on coming back on this board and posting in the observation section of a storm every five minutes that my parents are under a very heavy band of snow.  

Had Jan 2016 been a foregone conclusion for heavy snow several days before like in DC, I would’ve come up for it. I thought at the latest time I could’ve booked a flight that it would be a nice 6-12” deal but nothing too serious, and it could easily back off south like 2/5/10 last second. I remember that storm, Jan 2008 (the heavy snow warning that ended up all rain) and others that were busts and decided against it. It seems like Boston and DC have their “foregone conclusion” storms, where are ours?  

Hats off to those who have to make predictions for this area in winter storms because of how transitory this region is. Schools closed last second for the nothing the storm 5 days ago turned out to be here,  and they were open for numerous worse storms here. But I would’ve gone for closing schools too for that last second Lucy yanked football because of the colder model trends and high QPF. Tough call. 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That storm was amazing here, no doubt. And not much of a trend can make that happen again. But that’s a big stretch at this point. 

I’m just in no mood for a weak rates system that struggles to accumulate more than an inch or so, and much better rates hang out 25-35 miles east in that last deform band, which comes onshore in eastern CT, RI, MA, eastern Suffolk where they whoop over multiple inches per hour. I’ll take Ambrose Jet in a second over that. 

The last two storms had the deform band form about 50 miles west of forecast. And we saw what that deform can do. Long Island is very much in the game. But based on climo which always plays an important role I’d say that central Suffolk. It’s going to be another storm where it’s mehhh or amazing depending on banding 

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM frontogenesis 08-14Z early Tuesday is insane across central suffolk County.  If that’s depicted too far to the east as it frequently can be then there may be surprise heavy snow across Nassau or even slightly west.  

[strgazr27]

OTS (meanwhile Suffolk could see 5-8+). It’s done. The fat lady sings. If ever there was a thread to show Nassau/Suffolk needs it’s own sub forum it’s this one. I’m happy with 5-7”. Especially this time of year. 

[Franklin0529]

Is the ukie ots as well?

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Is the ukie ots as well?

Yea.  Precip maps come out in a few but I'm going to bed.  

[Rjay]

Ukie looks nice for eastern Suffolk.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Rjay said:

Ukie looks nice for eastern Suffolk.

It came west on the precip for sure 

[Rtd208]

[nzucker]

UKIE and Euro both trended west...UKIE has about 15mm (0.5" QPF) back to NYC...ECM has the 0.5" QPF line to Hartford...lesser amounts near the City, but still a much broader circulation with more precipitation on the west side than 12z.

[SRRTA22]

3 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

A lot of areas in the immediate metro area got less than 3 inches while everybody east, west, south and north got more and a lot more in most places. It was that, the White Rain noreaster and this one being too far east. Could have been an epic pattern and NYC was in the screw zone in all 3 (will likely be for this one). Maybe we're just spoiled from the last 15 years of hits but this is the winter of what could have been.  Bleh, spring couldn't come soon enough.

Not official but I received about 6 inches in southern jersey city

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Not official but I received about 6 inches in southern jersey city

Most areas had 3-5 in that region. So you must have got under a luckier band than most. There were folks saying they got 6 in Edison/Metuchen area while my nephew only saw 4 in Metuchen, so it's possible to have some local variation. Bottom line is every major storm in 2014 around here was more impressive than anything in the past two winters in these parts, and none of those storms was made out to be some apocalyptic blizzard.We were fringed on every storm this year, how likely is that? Yet there were parts of NEPA and NWNJ that had similar experiences over the years. I'm closing the book on this winter, if something else happens whatever. And once again, people hate to hear it, but March has proven it is not the month for big snows in the city ( not impossible I know the history ) but banking on anything much over 6 inches is asking a lot. Heck, even the city has done better than me, on Jan 4 we struggled to get 7; a few miles from me they had 17....life goes on. At least we had some wintry feel the last couple weeks.

[Meteoropoulos]

6z 3K NAM west of 00z and 5mb stronger. Snow through western NJ, precip further inland than 00z. 

[Rtd208]

Winter Weather Advisory in effect here for 2-3" of snow expected.

[allgame830]

That 0z UKIE was not terrible another 30 miles WEST push and 20mm would make it into the city