March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm Part 2

[NJwx85]

Just now, weatherlogix said:

these aren't hurricanes....pass on the marketing bullcrap ploys

You have no idea how much I cringed using that reference, but it was necessary.

[NJwx85]

It wasn’t completely OTS, but for 90% of the sub forum it’s a non event. 

[Wetbulbs88]

That gradient is tight. Still worth watching for me. 

[USCG RS]

By 8am QPF.  for the Nam  sharp gradient.   Bernie would yell at me for talking qpf lol

Honestly, I'm still not positive on this outcome. This is all about the phasing. At Hr 24 we are very close and we still have yet to see exactly how the artic s/w will play into this. A shift west in precip, and even the low itself is not out of the question. It's still only minor adjustments.

[weatherlogix]

BOS and SE gets hit hard.....we (Nassau County) just swung and missed at a curve in the dirt for strike 3. Missed out on all 3 storms. The one that would have actually brought snow we get no precip from....horrible winter.

[NJwx85]

The 3k NAM has some lighter precipitation as the Northern stream comes in, but nothing like what previous runs showed.

[NYCGreg]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

7 minutes ago, keno19 said:

By 8am QPF.  for the Nam  sharp gradient.   Bernie would yell at me for talking qpf lol

Honestly, I'm still not positive on this outcome. This is all about the phasing. At Hr 24 we are very close and we still have yet to see exactly how the artic s/w will play into this. A shift west in precip, and even the low itself is not out of the question. It's still only minor adjustments.

Not that I don't appreciate the optimism, but this one is pretty much DOA.  It's alive for some people on LI, but for NYC on west, a lot has to change and soon.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

8 minutes ago, keno19 said:

By 8am QPF.  for the Nam  sharp gradient.   Bernie would yell at me for talking qpf lol

Honestly, I'm still not positive on this outcome. This is all about the phasing. At Hr 24 we are very close and we still have yet to see exactly how the artic s/w will play into this. A shift west in precip, and even the low itself is not out of the question. It's still only minor adjustments.

Very close but that change has to happen very soon. Agonizing but it is what it is.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

BOS and SE gets hit hard.....we (Nassau County) just swung and missed at a curve in the dirt for strike 3. Missed out on all 3 storms. The one that would have actually brought snow we get no precip from....horrible winter.

Agree

Truly amazing how NYC missed out on 3 noreaster with a favorable pattern.

 

Remember last Friday when the GEPS showed a snowstorm and eps showed many members very close to the coast.

[ILoveWinter]

A few more model runs to go but seems that this is heading towards a nowcasting scenario.

[HeadInTheClouds]

I really wish people would stop saying the nam is OTS because it is not. We are not going to get the brunt of the storm but it's still a 1-3/2-4 type event even for me in the HV. 

[Ace]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Agree

Truly amazing how NYC missed out on 3 noreaster with a favorable pattern.

 

Remember last Friday when the GEPS showed a snowstorm and eps showed many members very close to the coast.

At least we get to see Boston get a foot or more 

[keno19]

8 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

13 minutes ago, keno19 said:

By 8am QPF.  for the Nam  sharp gradient.   Bernie would yell at me for talking qpf lol

Honestly, I'm still not positive on this outcome. This is all about the phasing. At Hr 24 we are very close and we still have yet to see exactly how the artic s/w will play into this. A shift west in precip, and even the low itself is not out of the question. It's still only minor adjustments.

Must watch where the banding sets up

[Dan76]

Just now, Ace said:

At least we get to see Boston get a foot or more 

Their due slim winter there this year

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I really wish people would stop saying the nam is OTS because it is not. We are not going to get the brunt of the storm but it's still a 1-3/2-4 type event even for me in the HV. 

Yes agreed... 6” start in western Suffolk so def not OTS 

[sferic]

The QPF Contours from West to east from Nassau to Suffolk ramp up from .2 to .7 over 25 miles.

This can easily trend back west, a wobble of 25 miles is quite doable.

Granted not much at this for areas outside NYC to the N and W but this can be a Long Island Special

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least we get to be screwed one last time before backdoor and seabreeze season ramps up. 

There might be 1 more threat lol

[keno19]

00zNAM 3km snow totals by 3pm Tuesday

[NycStormChaser]

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Agree

Truly amazing how NYC missed out on 3 noreaster with a favorable pattern.

 

Remember last Friday when the GEPS showed a snowstorm and eps showed many members very close to the coast.

Last storm we had 3 to 6 inches. That's not bad at all

[Rtd208]

I am so done with this winter. Bring on the hazy, hot, humid and severe weather. 

[NorthShoreWx]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I was referring to Juno, got my years mixed up.

Which one is Juno?

 

No snow for Jersey this run.

[Dan76]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

There might be 1 more threat lol

4/2 looks good

[sferic]

It's going to snow, perhaps not as much as we'd like but it's going to snow

My Call :

Central Park 2"

JFK 3"

Islip 5 inches

Boston 10 "

[weatherbear5]

At the very least, the SREFs show a super amped solution is still theoretically not physically impossible... I guess.

if only that southern s/w were slightly weaker, faster, and further north... but alas, as with all these systems it's a matter of timing and threading the needle. While it's not 100% dead just yet, particularly for those in Suffolk, it's not looking good at all

[Ericjcrash]

And the RGEM is more amped...

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

The main Low hasn’t even formed yet and already people throwin in towel.

all eyes shud be off the coast of sc now,  not model hoppin .  12z will let us know whether to abandon ship or not.

The low is forming over 65 to 70 degree water temps. lightning already popping up .

75 to 100 mile shift is all that’s needed.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

The main Low hasn’t even formed yet and already people throwin in towel.

all eyes shud be off the coast of sc now,  not model hoppin .  12z will let us know whether to abandon ship or not.

The low is forming over 65 to 70 degree water temps. lightning already popping up .

75 to 100 mile shift is all that’s needed.

The upper level pattern would suggest it’s not coming much further west.  However the incoming northern stream vort can interact just enough with the offshore system or on its own produce an area of snow.  2/2013 is the best example followed by December 2004 and December 1995.  Those two only produced about 3-4 inches but it wasnt modeled well in either case 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

RGEM=just when i thought I was out, they ....

Nah, still ends up with the fishes. And our threat sleeps with them.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The upper level pattern would suggest it’s not coming much further west.  However the incoming northern stream vort can interact just enough with the offshore system or on its own produce an area of snow.  2/2013 is the best example followed by December 2004 and December 1995.  Those two only produced about 3-4 inches but it wasnt modeled well in either case 

 

So many variations from run to run with the upper levels though, not much needs changing.  

Im skeptical with the models underperforming again on the backend as well.

Bottom of the 9th.  2 outs , 2 on. 

 

[jm1220]

Juno (Jan 2015) got 15” of snow back to me (I also missed that one in TX). It wasn’t a miss for anyone east of the Hudson. Central Park getting 10” doesn’t qualify as a miss.