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March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm Part 2


Rjay

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4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

My father-in-law is the captain on the South Ferry. I was on it till the last second before Sandy struck... man what a ride.

That is probably the best webcam on LI.  I was looking at it last week and got a little mesmerized watching them maneuver in the wind and tide.

You must be very close to there.

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6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Well the RPM keep trending further west....

You can already see the banding developing offshore. That 35dbz band is what we want. I have a feeling it comes ashore in Suffolk and rotates west to a point. That point will be the demarcation between a solid snow storm and a non event 

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You can already see the banding developing offshore. That 35dbz band is what we want. I have a feeling it comes ashore in Suffolk and rotates west to a point. That point will be the demarcation between a solid snow storm and a non event 

How wide is that vertically stacked line ?

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Latest RAP actually pretty aggressive, gets 6-8" back to Nassau, maybe eastern Queens. HRRR is about the same, and demolishes eastern Suffolk. It gets 0.5" liquid to NYC and 1" to about the Nassau/Suffolk border. 2" for Riverhead east. 

Yeah short range model trends have been decent.

hrrr_apcpn_neus_fh15_trend.gif

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Been snowing almost moderately for 45 minutes and it took about half that time to start accumulating - we now have a kind of slushy coating on cars and grass, but nothing on pavement, not surprisingly.  Temp down to 33F, but the nice 20+ DBZ band we've been under for most of the last 45 minutes is shrinking, so it might go back to white rain.  Hoping to make it to my 2.5" prediction for my house, but will need some more intensity than this.  

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16 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

How much snow did you have for December 26, 2010?

I would also argue that the North shore and South shore have very different long term climos. When people refer to the coast getting "lucky" they are generally referring to the South shore of LI and the far Eastern end which have all done very well the last 15-20 years.

South shore of western LI is in a major snow shadow because you usually have storms that jackpot the western areas (mixes or rains here) or eastern LI (north or south shore) in which case we get the western fringe.  It's a very weird place to be in lol.  Because of the way Long Island slants to the north the further east you go, sometimes you even have the weird situation of it snowing in the Hamptons while it's raining here- though that's rare.

Boxing Day, the storm you're referring to, my unofficial measurement for that storm was 18"  I think JFK's was somewhat less than that.  But going with either measurement, there have been only 4 20"+ storms here going back to the early 80s (Feb 1983, Jan 1996, PD2 and Jan 2016.)  It sounds like how often they "should" occur, based on historical climatology (which is like once a decade or so), but compared to Central Park's spike (as well as the increase in big snowstorms for Suffolk County), we've stayed around where we were before 2000 in terms of historic snowstorms.  Though if you get off the historic numbers and just go with major (double digit) snowstorms, 10"+ then we've seen a big increase too- just not the number of 20"+ historic snowstorms other areas have gotten.

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16 hours ago, psv88 said:

This is extremely inaccurate man. Just wrong a million ways. First, historic is not 20+, that’s absurd. Next, w LI is well above average since 2000, it’s not even up for debate. 

Total snowfall is above average sure (though it isn't on the same level as other areas)- note I'm specifically referring to southwestern LI (as represented by JFK)- not w LI overall.  But yea, historic is 20"+ what else would you make the numbers..... 10"?  12"?  Because those occur far too frequently to be considered "historic."  I consider historic a one in ten year occurrence, which a 20" snowfall fits perfectly for this region.  Historic total seasonal snowfall is around 50" based on the same probabilities.

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16 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

He also didn't mention Boxing Day which gave 20" amounts to a large portion of Western LI.

 

I mentioned it in my response to you in the other post, it was around 18" here from my measurements, I think JFK actually measured it to be a bit lower than that (15-16")

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46 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I mentioned it in my response to you in the other post, it was around 18" here from my measurements, I think JFK actually measured it to be a bit lower than that (15-16")

The JFK(15.6")-LGA(14) reports were suspiciously low, given higher reports nearby. I was in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn, & the reported 24" was lower than my estimate.

Final Snow Totals 128 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010.txt

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1 hour ago, bklnwx1 said:

The JFK(15.6")-LGA(14) reports were suspiciously low, given higher reports nearby. I was in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn, & the reported 24" was lower than my estimate.

Final Snow Totals 128 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010.txt

I think you guys got more than we did in SW Nassau though, I measured around 18.

Another example of what I'm talking about, but applied to seasonal totals is looking at that period of 4 straight 40 inch seasons NYC got between 02-03 and 05-06, which went something like 49, 43, 42, 40 inches..... here it was more like 56, 37, 36 and 25 inches.  Only one year of 40+ (02-03 the year we jackpotted with PD2) and 05-06 was way lower than the NYC total because we got much less than they did in the Feb 2006 storm.

 

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1 hour ago, tmagan said:

1) Arctic air has been absent from the region since mid January

2) Central Park March months with ten or more inches of snow are rare

March 2009 has got to be one of the most underrated late season storms.  Granted it was on March 1 which should really be considered late February since someone decided to short change February with only 28 days.

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2 hours ago, bklnwx1 said:

The JFK(15.6")-LGA(14) reports were suspiciously low, given higher reports nearby. I was in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn, & the reported 24" was lower than my estimate.

Final Snow Totals 128 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010.txt

Thanks for the file- some interesting reports from my region.  I know the Howard Beach spotter who measured 18.0 he's the same one who got the 28" measurement for PD2.

In my local area I'm seeing a minimum of 16.0 to a maximum of 19.4.  I think JM might have done the 16.0 measurement.

 

It's really hard to measure these high wind snowstorms- Feb 1978 had some vast undermeasurements too.

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