Rjay Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ace said: Yep it is. The creator of the map, @burgwx on twitter, said as much on his twitter account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: I think this is just the models refocusing the main Low. Which doesn't discount the complexity of the system, but I don't think the models are quite as confused as he makes them out to be. Then again I'm not a met and don't know who this is. He is a pretty good met from the NE forum who has been calling for this type of correction all day- so admittedly , take this with some grain of salt. However, I have seen him do pretty well with other situations. At this point, H5 on the 0z Nam and 12z Euro have shown much more propensity for the n/s ULL to attempt to pull this back west. Phases look cleaner, and the potential is there for this to shift West. Unfortunately, it is strictly now casting time. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: He is a pretty good met from the NE forum who has been calling for this type of correction all day- so admittedly , take this with some grain of salt. However, I have seen him do pretty well with other situations. At this point, H5 on the 0z Nam and 12z Euro have shown much more propensity for the n/s ULL to attempt to pull this back west. Phases look cleaner, and the potential is there for this to shift West. Unfortunately, it is strictly now casting time. We will see. Fair enough. I will also add however that those jumps were absent from the most recent NAM, at least at the surface. The 3k is still a veritable hot potato though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 I don’t think we have ever had this much uncertainly with the storm upon us... what u think @USCG RS we know by midnight-1am where this is heading?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Fair enough. I will also add however that those jumps were absent from the most recent NAM, at least at the surface. The 3k is still a veritable hot potato though. It is a convection driven model, therefore, this is to be expected with dynamics such as these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 HRRR is now west again Several inches for LI and few for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: I don’t think we have ever had this much uncertainly with the storm upon us... what u think @USCG RS we know by midnight-1am where this is heading?? I'm pretty certain where it's heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Rain now in Cobble Hill Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: HRRR is now west again Several inches for LI and few for NYC Didn't you learn from the last storm not to use that model? Cmon dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I'm pretty certain where it's heading Cape Cod? Ha. @allgame830 Watch next couple of hours. We will see how it progresses. If I am wrong with my thoughts, I will eat crow. @Rjay Just cook it nicely? I like a good mid rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: Cape Cod? Ha. @allgame830 Watch next couple of hours. We will see how it progresses. If I am wrong with my thoughts, I will eat crow. @Rjay Just cook it nicely? I like a good mid rare. When eating crow, you want it well done. Slow cooked in a red wine reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Cape Cod? Ha. @allgame830 Watch next couple of hours. We will see how it progresses. If I am wrong with my thoughts, I will eat crow. @Rjay Just cook it nicely? I like a good mid rare. Ok far enough I think I can hold out for a couple hours... need to know if I should stay up for one of all busts in history or just go to bed for work.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Really interested to see if Tomer Burg will update his site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Historically that is extremely unlikely to see that type of gradient setup. I’ve seen a foot in Montauk and nothing in NYC or 3 inches but either the gradient will be more spread out or the amounts are too high across LI Jan 2015 saw the east end of the Long Island receive close to 30 inches while NYC received 10 inches. If I recall correctly most of that snow for NYC was not even associated with the main batch of precip? Models today have steadily increased precipitation totals on the east end while we have stayed about the same. This is highlighted by the 12 KM Nam which has 2.5 inches liquid equv. touching the coast of eastern Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 FYI, Amtrak has suspended all service between NYC and Boston through at aleast 11am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ok far enough I think I can hold out for a couple hours... need to know if I should stay up for one of all busts in history or just go to bed for work.... lol Honestly, I would make sure that you can get to work. Yes, I think this comes a bit west, however, never risk your employment- even if it were to look certain. Just my two cents. Edit- then again, in my profession- I work no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Really interested to see if Tomer Burg will update his site. Hasn’t updated since 01 UTC, current time is 02:45 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Honestly, I would make sure that you can get to work. Yes, I think this comes a bit west, however, never risk your employment- even if it were to look certain. Just my two cents. Oh it’s perfectly ok I can work from home if it came to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Even though this will be a near miss, it's crazy how we're getting another sub 970mb monster east coast storm so quickly. Observations in SNE will be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Weenie band setting up shop in W NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Weenie band setting up shop in W NJ. Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 the 2Z RAP is starting to really make this interesting....that thing is way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Weenie band setting up shop in W NJ. whhhhhaaaaaatttttt ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: the 2Z RAP is starting to really make this interesting....that thing is way west .75 line isn't that far away from the eastern sections of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: the 2Z RAP is starting to really make this interesting....that thing is way west Gives LI 1.0-2.3" LE Edited to fine tune numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: Gives LI 1.3-2.5" LE Crushes montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: the 2Z RAP is starting to really make this interesting....that thing is way west Noticed that as well. Has trended west for 3 straight runs at least. The Hrrr has been jumping around run to run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Mega band developing off the NJ/DE coast and pivoting. Hopefully that can turn north soon-that’ll likely determine who really gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Mega band developing off the NJ/DE coast and pivoting. Hopefully that can turn north soon-that’ll likely determine who really gets hit. Out of curiosity- what did you study at UPenn? I almost went there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Gives LI 1.0-2.3" LE Edited to fine tune numbers. now its just an allowable model error of 25-30 miles and nassau is in the big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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