March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm Part 2

[Brian5671]

NAM is good from the CT/NY border east....not much S and W of NYC

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

But we see less snow, well less white rain.

It's not going to be white rain

You say this with every storm

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Looks great for LI. Won’t really make a difference for us

It keeps ticking west

We really have to see the radar tomorrow. This will be close.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

NAM is good from the CT/NY border east....not much S and W of NYC

Classic SNE special now though eastern LI should get a nice hit too. 

Thinking they'll cancel WWA, I don't see anyone from NYC westward get more than a trace.

[Rjay]

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I doubt it. It comes to where the western heavy snow band ends up. I could see it getting to around the Sagtikos. West of there this won’t be a big deal. I could even see it busting low because of subsidence here. Warm surface temps won’t help though, but a lot of this will be at night so that’ll be good. 

Pretty much my line of thinking right now.  

You ever notice how the west fringe band is usually modeled ~30 miles too far east?  That would put us in a good spot but we're never that lucky. 

[EastonSN+]

Even SW CT looks like 3 to 4 inches.

[NYCGreg]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

It's not going to be white rain

You say this with every storm

In urban areas it has to come down hard to stick.  I have not seen the NAM, but from what people are saying, this won't get it done.

[Brian5671]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Even SW CT looks like 3 to 4 inches.

insane QPF cutoff from one end of CT to the other.

[Eduardo]

28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

If there is literally snow on the ground the ground temp won’t affect the new snow...

Yeah I'm on the South Shore and we had substantially less snow last week than you, but I still have decently large patches of solid snow.  Stuff was like cement last week, so it's been resilient, despite the increasingly high sun angle.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Pretty much my line of thinking right now.  

You ever notice how the west fringe band is usually modeled ~30 miles too far east?  That would put us in a good spot but we're never that lucky. 

Exactly. Though it’s more like 50. Watch it be over queens or western Suffolk and we manage to get screwed. If there were ever a chance for it to be us I think this is it. It will most likely be a 4” type band. The big show is out east with the main deform. That’s where I think the big winner is with a foot or more 

[allgame830]

Still looks to be moving just W of N.

 

[USCG RS]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Ha. Beat me to it. Interesting to see the evolution here. Will be interesting to see if this does close of a H5, will it shunt east?

[Ericjcrash]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's not going to be white rain

You say this with every storm

You need more than 0.3" LE for any real accumulation in mid March. If there's an inch before sunrise congrats but it'll be gone by noon unless we get lucky and it busts west.

[NorthShoreWx]

34 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Most of LI does not have snow otg

There is here.

[EastonSN+]

We'll get the next storm.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Ha. Beat me to it. Interesting to see the evolution here. Will be interesting to see if this does close of a H5, will it shunt east?

Every model had an eastern low moving ene.  Then a western low takes over and moves ene until it's captured and tugged north crushing se New England.  I think this might be the western low taking over.  We'll see shortly.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

We'll get the next storm.

December?

[Ace]

Just now, Rjay said:

Every model had an eastern low moving ene and then a western low takes over and moves ene until its captured and tugged north crushing se New England.  I think this might be the western low taking over.  We'll see shortly.

Yep it is. The creator of the map, @burgwx on twitter, said as much on his twitter account.

[NYCGreg]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Ha. Beat me to it. Interesting to see the evolution here. Will be interesting to see if this does close of a H5, will it shunt east?

Again, I'm no expert, but one has to think this is giving us a better chance of a phase here.  Yes, maybe it's grasping at straws, but I wonder why no mets seem to be picking up on the fact that the actual low pressure center has been - and currently is - moving NNW.

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Every model had an eastern low moving ene and then a western low takes over and moves ene until its captured and tugged north crushing se New England.  I think this might be the western low taking over.  We'll see shortly.

According to the NAM the western low has taken over...I think? The 3k and 12k are different. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

December?

If the one next week misses then yes, but Decwmber can be fickle.

[EasternLI]

That Nam run is out of control. I mean that's getting 2" qpf into east Suffolk now.

[NorthShoreWx]

16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Any snow on the ground is, by definition, frozen water at less than or equal to 32F - if it's melting it's 32F (when ice melts to form water, the temperature doesn't change, just the phase changes - the heat goes into melting the ice), whereas if it's been below 32F, the snow can cool down proportionally to the air temp.  Anywhere there is snow on the ground, it's at most 32F and any snow falling on existing snow will not melt at all, when it's dark (except for very minor melting if the air temp is above 32F).  And I'm still skeptical that the ground would remain above 32F for very long with a snowpack on top of it - would think that heat would melt some snow initially and equilibrate at 32F fairly quickly, as it's in contact with 32F snow.  

The interface between the ground and the snow would remain very close to 32, but there is still a heat transfer occurring from the warmer earth just below that interface.  With air and soil temperatures above freezing, I'm willing to bet there is a thin film of liquid right there.  Also, with the air temperature above 32, there is probably a thin film of liquid on the top surface of the snow pack, so it may be possible for very light snow rates to melt a little on that.  But like you said, eventually there is an equilibrium. It'll stick better on a rotting snowpack than on a paved surface.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That Nam run is out of control. I mean that's getting 2" qpf into east Suffolk now.

Has an area of 24”+ in SE Mass

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That Nam run is out of control. I mean that's getting 2" qpf into east Suffolk now.

Good for you man! Take pics and make us hate life. I' rather taint than look east knowing what we'r literally just missing.

[USCG RS]

Typhoon Tip:

 

"I don't know how else to put this ... but it appears to me the models simply can't handle this system.

It seems to be correcting west at < 12 hours on every cycle ...but ...soon as it gets to 15... the lows relocate way out at sea, only to correct west when that next run makes that 18 hour the 12...

see the pattern... It's like this thing is going to close in on a BM transit in the models, AS it is happening.  That's what it's seems like to me this hour.

"if" something like that were to rein true, then you got issue back toward NYC and ALB where I'm not sure people would be sufficiently warned.  Let alone... what the hell is happening on the eastern NE coastal plain in a situation like that!  jesus christ.

Also, presently, WPC's surface low is west already (by a little) of these model fixes from 12z and 18z for 12 and 6 hours out, respectively - not sure if that's part and parcel of the above concern. 

Also, national radar scope/loop shows a clear pivot point has evolved near the SE Jersey coast, with moderate snow now flashed over in the MA...

The observation et al don't strike me as a system charging straight out to the Flemmish Cap."

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That Nam run is out of control. I mean that's getting 2" qpf into east Suffolk now.

Historically that is extremely unlikely to see that type of gradient setup.  I’ve seen a foot in Montauk and nothing in NYC or 3 inches but either the gradient will be more spread out or the amounts are too high across LI

[gravitylover]

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Any snow on the ground is, by definition, frozen water at less than or equal to 32F - if it's melting it's 32F (when ice melts to form water, the temperature doesn't change, just the phase changes - the heat goes into melting the ice), whereas if it's been below 32F, the snow can cool down proportionally to the air temp.  Anywhere there is snow on the ground, it's at most 32F and any snow falling on existing snow will not melt at all, when it's dark (except for very minor melting if the air temp is above 32F).  And I'm still skeptical that the ground would remain above 32F for very long with a snowpack on top of it - would think that heat would melt some snow initially and equilibrate at 32F fairly quickly, as it's in contact with 32F snow.  

What you end up with is an air space underneath the snow, there is only contact in a few spots and you can see them where there are low spots in the snows surface. The radiating warmth melts out a layer and leaves a thin ice coating on the bottom keeping the snow above isolated from the warm ground. 

[NorthShoreWx]

16 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I'm on the South Shore and we had substantially less snow last week than you, but I still have decently large patches of solid snow.  Stuff was like cement last week, so it's been resilient, despite the increasingly high sun angle.

And it had high water content.  5 inches at 5:1 has the same amount to melt as 12" at 12:1 (assuming it freezes rather than continuing to rot)

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Typhoon Tip:

 

"I don't know how else to put this ... but it appears to me the models simply can't handle this system.

It seems to be correcting west at < 12 hours on every cycle ...but ...soon as it gets to 15... the lows relocate way out at sea, only to correct west when that next run makes that 18 hour the 12...

see the pattern... It's like this thing is going to close in on a BM transit in the models, AS it is happening.  That's what it's seems like to me this hour.

"if" something like that were to rein true, then you got issue back toward NYC and ALB where I'm not sure people would be sufficiently warned.  Let alone... what the hell is happening on the eastern NE coastal plain in a situation like that!  jesus christ.

Also, presently, WPC's surface low is west already (by a little) of these model fixes from 12z and 18z for 12 and 6 hours out, respectively - not sure if that's part and parcel of the above concern. 

Also, national radar scope/loop shows a clear pivot point has evolved near the SE Jersey coast, with moderate snow now flashed over in the MA...

The observation et al don't strike me as a system charging straight out to the Flemmish Cap."

I think this is just the models refocusing the main Low. Which doesn't discount the complexity of the system, but I don't think the models are quite as confused as he makes them out to be. Then again I'm not a met and don't know who this is.