psv88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 People always hate on LI and SNE specials. I get it, but it’s annoying. Nassau and Suffolk will see a nice event here, as will most of Connecticut. I think the city sees a few hours of steady snow as well. Everyone should enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: People see what they want to see. In January 2015, Steve Dimartino was screaming to watch the observations as we were all noticing that this was busting. Hours later, bust. Cranky thought last week's storm was colder and would hit big cities harder. He busted. Simply put, these guys bust as much as the next guy. Could they be right this time? Sure. I certainly don't know more than they do. It's possible not a flake falls in the City tomorrow. Maybe no flakes tomorrow but probably some within the hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: People always hate on LI and SNE specials. I get it, but it’s annoying. Nassau and Suffolk will see a nice event here, as will most of Connecticut. I think the city sees a few hours of steady snow as well. Everyone should enjoy It's not exactly inhuman for a weather weeinie not to enjoy snow that's not coming. People will 'hate' on a storm that doesn't materialize IMBY, just human nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 I don't know what people were expecting from this storm. Since Friday night 0z it was a clear consensus from the ensembles for NYC west that this would be at most a 1-3" storm. Anyone expecting more than that has no reason to do so. Long Island and New England is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: People always hate on LI and SNE specials. I get it, but it’s annoying. Nassau and Suffolk will see a nice event here, as will most of Connecticut. I think the city sees a few hours of steady snow as well. Everyone should enjoy People hate on interior specials too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I don't know what people were expecting from this storm. Since Friday night 0z it was a clear consensus from the ensembles for NYC west that this would be at most a 1-3" storm. Anyone expecting more than that has no reason to do so. Long Island and New England is another story. Long Island as in Nassau and Suffolk or is this a mainly Suffolk special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Mets can be like models in a given winter. Some years some will see things better than others. This winter Steve has been doing fairly well. It’s been crazy hard to get any of these storms recently right but he’s been close on most of them to the general idea We're probably just as guilty of seeing things that we want to see. But unlikely Steve D. and Cranky - who have sought to do nothing but support their initial thoughts - I think people here are simply asking what is going on. Steve D. - who I actually find to be pretty good for the most part - went apoplectic at the idea of the NWS issuing an advisory for NYC, because he believes only a C-1" will fall there. When you have a conclusion - as they do - and then will do anything to get to that conclusion, that is not the proper way to forecast an event, even if their forecasts verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I don't know what people were expecting from this storm. Since Friday night 0z it was a clear consensus from the ensembles for NYC west that this would be at most a 1-3" storm. Anyone expecting more than that has no reason to do so. Long Island and New England is another story. I don't know what people are expecting from comments like this. Nothing is clear regarding the weather, and that goes doubly so for a storm like this. There are likelihoods. Deterministic stuff like this doesn't contribute to anything except someone's existential need for certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, USCG RS said: H7 is closed and H5 looks to be going negative I don't know; to my extremely amateur eye; that looks a lot closer to phasing than not..............but I am no pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I don't know what people were expecting from this storm. Since Friday night 0z it was a clear consensus from the ensembles for NYC west that this would be at most a 1-3" storm. Anyone expecting more than that has no reason to do so. Long Island and New England is another story. We're on the cusp of an 8-month period almost entirely devoid of trackable weather. Even if we're being charitable and assume a couple enhanced/mod risks, a tropical threat, and a big heat event, it's going to get really boring here before long. I agree that expectations are probably too high, but you can't fault anyone for holding out hope at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, jasperk99 said: I don't know; to my extremely amateur eye; that looks a lot closer to phasing than not..............but I am no pro 18z NAM about 30 minutes before now. Pretty significant differences @ 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 So it moved more West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Snowing monmouth county,nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 This is my thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is my thinking Uhh. That is quite the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is my thinking Actually looks pretty solid, on the high end but solid. For our area. Looks spot on for new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: 18z NAM about 30 minutes before now. Pretty significant differences @ 500 Can someone point out the differences... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Light rain/snow currently. Hoping for 3-5” here. I think the city sees an inch or two. East of the William Floyd Parkway should have totals approaching a foot-the NAM has some very impressive banding there and potentially west to Rte 110. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Can someone point out the differences... That's a surface map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Probably belongs in the vendor thread but meh. Not seeing much support for the miracle phase outcome from esteemed folks in the field. Edit: ninja'd. I'll leave it up to really drive the point home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 His opinion means something, as he hasn't been nearly as vocal as others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 26 minutes ago, sferic said: Long Island as in Nassau and Suffolk or is this a mainly Suffolk special? Mainly Suffolk unless we get into the 700mb fronto band. I think it stays east of Psvland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Light rain/snow currently. Hoping for 3-5” here. I think the city sees an inch or two. East of the William Floyd Parkway should have totals approaching a foot-the NAM has some very impressive banding there and potentially west to Rte 110. Wind blown light snow. I smell a bust here btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: If John is saying that I believe it, he is an excellent meteorologist IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Light rain/snow currently. Hoping for 3-5” here. I think the city sees an inch or two. East of the William Floyd Parkway should have totals approaching a foot-the NAM has some very impressive banding there and potentially west to Rte 110. JM, Is this a case if you drove 10 miles North from where you live in LB there would be more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, Rtd208 said: If John is saying that I believe it, he is an excellent meteorologist IMO. Agreed. That was the nail being set in the coffin for me. But only real-time can be the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Light rain/snow currently. Hoping for 3-5” here. I think the city sees an inch or two. East of the William Floyd Parkway should have totals approaching a foot-the NAM has some very impressive banding there and potentially west to Rte 110. It’s going to be sooooo close. Especially for me in eastern Nassau. I think this is a non event anywhere west of the deform. I think at least eastern Nassau gets into it for a time and that’s when any impactful accumulations occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s going to be sooooo close. Especially for me in eastern Nassau. I think this is a non event anywhere west of the deform. I think at least eastern Nassau gets into it for a time and that’s when any impactful accumulations occur. Superstorm93 posted this elsewhere earlier. Great link. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/cyclones/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 I love a good winter storm just as much as the next person but I think we have alot of wishful thinking/hoping going on right now that this will turn into something bigger for more of the subforum. Honestly, I am getting a bit tired of these snowstorms in March, next winter lets get back to having winter storms from Mid December thru Mid February and we will be back in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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