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March 12th - 13th The It's Not Coming Storm Part 2

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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Brasiluvsnow

Brasiluvsnow

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

The Low is definitely moving 2 to 3 hours slower than expected. (maybe more)  And slightly closer to the coast. 

areas in western parts of Virginia received 6 to 12 inches of snow today...no model had this.     So for sure expect higher than expected totals.  GFS is closest with the overall coverage of QPF, but is significantly underpredicting.   As it has already on the western fringes. 

there will be mesoscale type banding in the bands of snow overnight...hit or miss most likely though.   Nowcasting ftw, don't even bother with the models at this point...they still haven't gotten it right yet. 

Skeptic do you know what those parts of Virginia that received 6 plus today were forecasted to get ?

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

The Low is definitely moving 2 to 3 hours slower than expected. (maybe more)  And slightly closer to the coast. 

areas in western parts of Virginia received 6 to 12 inches of snow today...no model had this.     So for sure expect higher than expected totals.  GFS is closest with the overall coverage of QPF, but is significantly underpredicting.   As it has already on the western fringes. 

there will be mesoscale type banding in the bands of snow overnight...hit or miss most likely though.   Nowcasting ftw, don't even bother with the models at this point...they still haven't gotten it right yet. 

Exactly my thinking. It’s going to be up to the western mesoscale band (deform). Where ever that sets up is going to get crushed with a surprise 12”+. Right now I like central Suffolk up into ct. There may be a secondary band further west twords the city that does something like 6”. Outside of those bands it’s mostly a grass and car topping couple inches 

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Skeptic do you know what those parts of Virginia that received 6 plus today were forecasted to get ?

 

Geographically is better.  A lot of this was NOT predicted today...at all.   notice the 11" report in top left corner.

Just as i'm about to post this, 7" report from west virginia as well.   Greenbrier, WV   7"

AkEBFC.jpg

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Brasiluvsnow

Brasiluvsnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

 

Geographically is better.  A lot of this was NOT predicted today...at all.   notice the 11" report in top left corner.

Just as i'm about to post this, 7" report from west virginia as well.   Greenbrier, WV   7"

AkEBFC.jpg

so many areas were supposed to get nothing ?,,,,,,,wow thanks

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM saw it. 


Looking back at the models, the NAM really did well picking up
on the potential for mesoscale banding as far back as the 18z
run on Saturday. With yesterday`s 18z run, and each subsequent
run, it really ramped up on amounts and did well with placement
of the banded snowfall.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=WV&prodtype=discussion

 

yea but NAM is doing horrible up here and with overall precipitation coverage.   It's light raining / snowing over a lot of jersey now..and it's 6 hour forecast from 18z has nothing over Jersey.  So from now till 8pm it's bone dry in jersey...according to nam. 

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tempestatis014

tempestatis014

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Just for the hell of it we are gusting in the mid 30s already here in point pleasant beach I'm about 3 blocks inland and over for last hour you can hear it ramping up outside.  

I just got home from sailing in Barnegat Bay. 2 foot waves in there which is pretty big when sailing a 12 foot boat.

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Stormpc

Stormpc

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

so many areas were supposed to get nothing ?,,,,,,,wow thanks

Those areas were under winter storm warnings for 4 to 8 in. They got what they were supposed to get. The Richmond area got more action than they were supposed to however. That was something that was not necessarily predicted. I believe anywhere east of William Floyd Parkway in Suffolk County can get 6 or more inches. Especially the higher areas in Brookhaven. Good luck all.

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strgazr27

strgazr27

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

 

Geographically is better.  A lot of this was NOT predicted today...at all.   notice the 11" report in top left corner.

Just as i'm about to post this, 7" report from west virginia as well.   Greenbrier, WV   7"

AkEBFC.jpg

Looking at the details of that image pretty sure you’d find the 11” reading either wrong, or located significantly higher then surrounding areas and would look at it as a throw away. Toss the high and low and do an average. Still a nice event but looks like the avg was 6” pretty much. 

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JERSEYSNOWROB

JERSEYSNOWROB

Posted
Posted

More from TIP in the NE thread:

Concerned that these oblong low structures that are on the MESOs may in fact be attempts to correct bodily west ...ultimately, failing in lieu of convection helping to lower height seaward too much and that feedback on carving the residual S/stream wave too far out to see - there is certainly a tension in these runs that is tugging between something, and I suspect it is between the better deep layer forcing versus the models modulating the heights downstream. 

I am still not ready to sign on as this thing not phasing more and seeing that happen tonight more on this next cycle perhaps not really fully getting there until tomorrow during now cast at that... Failure to capture to the bitter end almost makes sense for this immensely complex ordeal.  

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, JERSEYSNOWROB said:

More from TIP in the NE thread:

Concerned that these oblong low structures that are on the MESOs may in fact be attempts to correct bodily west ...ultimately, failing in lieu of convection helping to lower height seaward too much and that feedback on carving the residual S/stream wave too far out to see - there is certainly a tension in these runs that is tugging between something, and I suspect it is between the better deep layer forcing versus the models modulating the heights downstream. 

I am still not ready to sign on as this thing not phasing more and seeing that happen tonight more on this next cycle perhaps not really fully getting there until tomorrow during now cast at that... Failure to capture to the bitter end almost makes sense for this immensely complex ordeal.  

I just can’t see every model being that far off this late in the game. Even a 30-50 mile shift West wouldn’t be enough to get NYC into the best banding. In fact it might put the city where Western LI currently sits, which is in a subsidence screw zone between the ULL over Western NY and the coastal.

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I just can’t see every model being that far off this late in the game. Even a 30-50 mile shift West wouldn’t be enough to get NYC into the best banding. In fact it might put the city where Western LI currently sits, which is in a subsidence screw zone between the ULL over Western NY and the coastal.

I can’t really see it either but he is a meteorologist and he must see something that potentially could be convincing.

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mikem81

mikem81

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I just can’t see every model being that far off this late in the game. Even a 30-50 mile shift West wouldn’t be enough to get NYC into the best banding. In fact it might put the city where Western LI currently sits, which is in a subsidence screw zone between the ULL over Western NY and the coastal.

A 30-40 mike shift would give me an inch of qpf instead of .5 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I just can’t see every model being that far off this late in the game. Even a 30-50 mile shift West wouldn’t be enough to get NYC into the best banding. In fact it might put the city where Western LI currently sits, which is in a subsidence screw zone between the ULL over Western NY and the coastal.

On average there is a pretty massive bust about every few years.  It’s not always in a high population area so you don’t hear about it.  

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I just can’t see every model being that far off this late in the game. Even a 30-50 mile shift West wouldn’t be enough to get NYC into the best banding. In fact it might put the city where Western LI currently sits, which is in a subsidence screw zone between the ULL over Western NY and the coastal.

NAM puts the best 700 fronto from the Nassau suffolk line east. West of there will be in subsidence City and east of there will get buried by the coastal. 

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NYCGreg

NYCGreg

Posted
Posted

People see what they want to see.  In January 2015, Steve Dimartino was screaming to watch the observations as we were all noticing that this was busting.  Hours later, bust.  Cranky thought last week's storm was colder and would hit big cities harder.  He busted.  Simply put, these guys bust as much as the next guy.  Could they be right this time?  Sure.  I certainly don't know more than they do.  It's possible not a flake falls in the City tomorrow.

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Wetbulbs88

Wetbulbs88

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

People see what they want to see.  In January 2015, Steve Dimartino was screaming to watch the observations as we were all noticing that this was busting.  Hours later, bust.  Cranky thought last week's storm was colder and would hit big cities harder.  He busted.  Simply put, these guys bust as much as the next guy.  Could they be right this time?  Sure.  I certainly don't know more than they do.  It's possible not a flake falls in the City tomorrow.

This

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

People see what they want to see.  In January 2015, Steve Dimartino was screaming to watch the observations as we were all noticing that this was busting.  Hours later, bust.  Cranky thought last week's storm was colder and would hit big cities harder.  He busted.  Simply put, these guys bust as much as the next guy.  Could they be right this time?  Sure.  I certainly don't know more than they do.  It's possible not a flake falls in the City tomorrow.

 Mets can be like models in a given winter.  Some years some will see things better  than others.  This winter Steve has been doing fairly well.  It’s been crazy hard to get any of these storms recently right but he’s been close on most of them to the general idea

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