EasternLI Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It may end up very close to NYC. My hunch is there will be a screw zone roughly along a line from ORH South-southwest to about FOK where they miss the main event and get screwed by the likely more intense band to their west. They probably will still see more in Westhampton than New Hyde Park or Garden City but it may be closer than anyone thinks in some spots Hey that's me! Wait a minute.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 Fwiw, @RU848789 knows what he's talking about what it comes to this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro ensemble mean have 2-4 for the area Our subforum is large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Our subforum is large Lol yeah if the forks get 2-4...there are two ways I can see that happening, both being unprecedented modeling errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Our subforum is large You can always safely assume with him it's NYC proper that he's referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 18Z ICON another 25-30 mile shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 HRRR 3k has .50 + for nyc and alot more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: 18Z ICON another 25-30 mile shift west. yup, keeps ticking west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Trend has been west. Great to see. 88 now if the models were in ERROR and its actually more West than depicted that would be sweet !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 yup, keeps ticking westI hope it’s not too wet of a snow for our forum members on L.I. That’s not fun if they get a lot and it knocks out trees and power.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, North and West said: I hope it’s not too wet of a snow for our forum members on L.I. That’s not fun if they get a lot and it knocks out trees and power. . Spent all day yesterday cleaning up the down tree in my yard from last week's snowfall. The trees have taken a beating here, and many are still all bent over and damaged. I am hoping its drier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, North and West said: I hope it’s not too wet of a snow for our forum members on L.I. That’s not fun if they get a lot and it knocks out trees and power. . It’ll probably be close to 10 to 1. The last storm may have been 5 to 1 in some instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: Fwiw, @RU848789 knows what he's talking about what it comes to this stuff. Thanks for the props - if one reads my profile, they'll know why I talk a lot about snow crystal nucleation and growth, kinetic networks and snowfall/melting rates, and the vagaries of numerical modeling of complex, chaotic, non-linear systems like the weather (and chemical reactors). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Thanks for the props - if one reads my profile, they'll know why I talk a lot about snow crystal nucleation and growth, kinetic networks and snowfall/melting rates, and the vagaries of numerical modeling of complex, chaotic, non-linear systems like the weather (and chemical reactors). funny you should mention those,,,my 2 boys and I were just talking about that during dinner last night,,,,,,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 now if the models were in ERROR and its actually more West than depicted that would be sweet !!! It ain't gonna come west enough for my neck of the woods at this point, John Q Public here in E Nj is expecting 2-4 tomorrow and that is really unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: It ain't gonna come west enough for my neck of the woods at this point, John Q Public here in E Nj is expecting 2-4 tomorrow and that is really unlikely. Im not sure that anything is likely or certain right now,,,storm is still developing and the track is not written in stone and the models seem to be struggling with the dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It ain't gonna come west enough for my neck of the woods at this point, John Q Public here in E Nj is expecting 2-4 tomorrow and that is really unlikely. Actually, I think it's a pretty good call by the NWS. Latest HRRR shows that too with 3-4" amounts in far eastern NJ, not too far from our area. Sure it can bust, but almost every model is showing 2-3" for northern Middlesex County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, North and West said: I hope it’s not too wet of a snow for our forum members on L.I. That’s not fun if they get a lot and it knocks out trees and power. . Been there done that...last week. Multiple trees down, one is still resting on the electric and it ripped the cable wire clean off the pole and is lying on the ground. Apparently we are not a priority because we don't have any current outages but that could change. We lost power briefly a couple of times during last weeks snowstorm, but I guess we have been lucky overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Mixture of very light rain and snow falling here at work in Hopewell Township Mercer County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: And I received over 20" and most of it fell in an 8 hour period. Yes, no kiddin' where BL temps weren't an issue. No one is debating that. You don't have a marine BL in Mahwah NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 NWS map knocked 1 inch off my area. From 6 to 5. Is this the start of the trimming period? I did not like the RGEM snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I was just looking at the maps that seemed to say around 1-2, but seriously we can't afford more snow days here. The few inches we got last week was punishing. But I'll take a delayed opening. Older one's on spring break I never like him driving to RU in snow; he did say the campus took a bit of a beating and had more snow. It's a ten minute ride from here if that on a good day, yet such variation. Well, we got 8.5" in Metuchen, while NB's official measurement (Rutgers Gardens) was 10", so they got a bit more (I think you got less than me, correct? Maps showed less as one went NE). Sounds like my son (in grad school now) had a blast in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 GFS with a bit more snow for much of NNJ/CNJ, especially north of 80... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yes, no kiddin' where BL temps weren't an issue. No one is debating that. You don't have a marine BL in Mahwah NJ. It was 33-34 degrees here for most of that storm and we struggled to accumulate until the CCB arrived around 12:30, otherwise totals would have been even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Well, we got 8.5" in Metuchen, while NB's official measurement (Rutgers Gardens) was 10", so they got a bit more (I think you got less than me, correct? Maps showed less as one went NE). Sounds like my son (in grad school now) had a blast in it. 4 and change IMBY, but up towards Plainfield/Scotch Plains they had 9. BIL in Piscataway had 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It was 33-34 degrees here for most of that storm and we struggled to accumulate until the CCB arrived around 12:30, otherwise totals would have been even higher. You were under an intense 40dbz band for hours. Again, no one is debating if the rates are there, 33-34 at the surface doesnt matter. You find me one model that has heavy snow in NYC metro area or LI. You have to go to mtk to find any semblance of heavy snow and that is for a 3-6 hr period tops. But in this case eastern LI also has --by far-- the warmest BL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Terrible. I have never been just on the other side of one of those mega bands, but it may be our time. We get 2 while Stratford gets 12 Meh Doubt it, sw ct usually always finds a way to get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 40 minutes ago, North and West said: I hope it’s not too wet of a snow for our forum members on L.I. That’s not fun if they get a lot and it knocks out trees and power. . Yes absolutely this, I work at UI and the past two weeks have been hell, if this is going to be another heavy wet snow event then I would rather get none at all (as sad as it is to say that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Been there done that...last week. Multiple trees down, one is still resting on the electric and it ripped the cable wire clean off the pole and is lying on the ground. Apparently we are not a priority because we don't have any current outages but that could change. We lost power briefly a couple of times during last weeks snowstorm, but I guess we have been lucky overall.I hope it doesn’t happen tonight for you. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The Low is definitely moving 2 to 3 hours slower than expected. (maybe more) And slightly closer to the coast. areas in western parts of Virginia received 6 to 12 inches of snow today...no model had this. So for sure expect higher than expected totals. GFS is closest with the overall coverage of QPF, but is significantly underpredicting. As it has already on the western fringes. there will be mesoscale type banding in the bands of snow overnight...hit or miss most likely though. Nowcasting ftw, don't even bother with the models at this point...they still haven't gotten it right yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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