Joe4alb Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 what the hell, that is a bit more then a little shift this close to the event... geesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: The LP track is the most bizzare convection chasing thing I have ever seen on any model It's still not out for me on tidbits...I'm guessing it's still having trouble with finding a dominant low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 We could be seeing model corrections in real time, which means anything beyond even 6 hrs is unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Wow...that is one troubled solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Due East 200 miles then due north 200 miles. Its like drawing a backwards letter L like ___} as opposed to going / Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Not sure whether to believe that crazy SLP path or not, but snowfall went up a bit vs. 12Z for most of NJ and definitely NYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Let's see what the GFS says soon and if there is any true concensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Due East 200 miles then due north 200 miles. Its like drawing a backwards letter L like ___} as opposed to going / The RGEM depicted an odd stall for about 3 or 4 hours (does like tiny loop at 20hr-24hr) - i think the models are trying to understand how elongated this low will be and how/when that wobble effects the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 My only takeaway from the 18z NAM is chaos...What in the hell was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: meh...light to moderate rates... Not the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Something tell me the Lp should be that small circle at 39N 70W not the one down to the far southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3k NAM actually moves SE between 03z and 07z tuesday... WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looks like at least two mid-level centers try to close off on the 3K NAM, agree that some very odd things occurred with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Ugh. Not the result I wanted at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Upton has 2-4 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not the point. it's so-so for most that post here except far eastern sections... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: it's so-so for most that post here except far eastern sections... Every run keeps shifting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Upton has 2-4 for NYC Actually 2-5 on the point and click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Look for the real counterclockwise wind flows around where the real SLP should be...(about 100 miles due north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Look for the real counterclockwise wind flows around where the real SLP should be...(about 100 miles due north) Yep, NAM was convection chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3k was weird. Bumped 12 plus west to CT river, but was worse west of there. Due to deepening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I'm certainly not the most informed or knowledgeable poster about these things, but judging by what these models do, I'm guessing that it's possible the NAM is jumping the LP to the place of most convection. I don't know if that means it's in error, but I guess it bears watching. If I'm not mistaken, I believe a lot of the models were doing that prior to the 1/4 storm this year and the January 2016 blizzard, and only when that got resolved did we find out the true outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 3k was weird. Bumped 12 plus west to CT river, but was worse west of there. Due to deepening? models starting to see the subsidence to the west of the main show....better hope we don't end up just west of the main bands or this is a 1-3 inch job for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: models starting to see the subsidence to the west of the main show....better hope we don't end of just west of the main bands or this is a 1-3 inch job for us. Terrible. I have never been just on the other side of one of those mega bands, but it may be our time. We get 2 while Stratford gets 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The furtherst west deform looks to set up somewhere between C LI and NYC, whoever gets into that will outperform handidly, timing of this storm is perfect for max accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: The furtherst west deform looks to set up somewhere between C LI and NYC, whoever gets into that will outperform handidly, timing of this storm is perfect for max accum. yep-another night time show which helps this time of year. Unfortunately, another snow day for the kids....(my view not theirs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Radar starting to light up over E PA and Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: The furtherst west deform looks to set up somewhere between C LI and NYC, whoever gets into that will outperform handidly, timing of this storm is perfect for max accum. It may end up very close to NYC. My hunch is there will be a screw zone roughly along a line from ORH South-southwest to about FOK where they miss the main event and get screwed by the likely more intense band to their west. They probably will still see more in Westhampton than New Hyde Park or Garden City but it may be closer than anyone thinks in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Based off the black and white maps, but it doesn't look like the 18z RGEM made a significant shift in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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