Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: So within each accumulation zone there can be spots that match the snowfall forecasted for two zones higher. I believe the meteorological term for that is hedge. I think that's a more responsible prediction method. It boggles my mind that mets act like we can clearly demarcate accumulation zones when that's just not possible yet. The Capital Weather Gang does similar stuff regarding boom/bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Channeling Bernie Rayno on this one Look how far west the cyclonic flow extends into E PA, that argues for a further West precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: So within each accumulation zone there can be spots that match the snowfall forecasted for two zones higher. I believe the meteorological term for that is hedge. That's how you account for banding, which is impossible to predict with much lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The SLP tracks almost due North, problem is that it starts out so far East. Sounds like a cleaner phase tucking it back in but still a bit late. Improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 NWS just upped my range from 4 to 7 to 5 to 7. Nice especially after the 10 on Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's how you account for banding, which is impossible to predict with much lead time. Have to agree with this. Late season storms as we have seen are very banding dependent. With this one it’s all about where the western deform sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Have to agree with this. Late season storms as we have seen are very banding dependent. With this one it’s all about where the western deform sets up He just doesn't like me, so he decided to take a shot. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Man that Euro looks juicy. Combine that with a NAM track and we might be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Actually partially closed off here on the Euro, if that managed to roll over and close off in that spot we'd be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Have to agree with this. Late season storms as we have seen are very banding dependent. With this one it’s all about where the western deform sets up Not just late season storms. Pretty much every wound up winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 One could look at it this way, what are the odds that the 12z CRAS is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Not just late season storms. Pretty much every wound up winter storm. True but expecially now. Light rates that would slowly accumulate in January will not cut it now. by the way you look to be in an excellent spot for the secondary maxima. I could see you grabbing a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's how you account for banding, which is impossible to predict with much lead time. I was noting that there is no risk of that forecast busting due to verification on the high side. Low side yes, but the 12z tendency has been for higher accumulations. I don't believe predicting banding is impossible. It is just way beyond our amateur skill sets. I agree that banding is a wildcard for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 What are we looking at/for? TIA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: True but expecially now. Light rates that would slowly accumulate in January will not cut it now. by the way you look to be in an excellent spot for the secondary maxima. I could see you grabbing a foot Good point. Lighter snows after sunrise are just going to fall on a shrinking pack and melt on pavement. I still blame the time change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, North and West said: What are we looking at/for? TIA. . Current locations/tilting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Current locations Yes, but is there any importance or significance there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: True but expecially now. Light rates that would slowly accumulate in January will not cut it now. by the way you look to be in an excellent spot for the secondary maxima. I could see you grabbing a foot Light rates will have no trouble accumulating on the 32F snow with high albedo, in general. And for non-snow/paved surfaces, light to moderate rates will have little problem accumulating after dark, when most of this is supposed to fall, as long as the snowfall rate is probably above 1/4" per hour, which is probably the melting rate at night on 34-36F surfaces with 33-34F air temps - and once a layer of snow accumulates on non-snow/paved surfaces, further accumulation is uninhibited as the snow at 32F is now the new "surface" and melting from 33-34F air is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yes, but is there any importance or significance there? Current locations vs. where models were showing placement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Current locations vs. where models were showing placement . LOL... You still really have not answered the question.... are the current conditions the same where the models have or west or east or w/e? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: LOL... You still really have not answered the question.... are the current conditions the same where the models have or west or east or w/e? They're basically on track. Upper disturbance is beginning to feed. GFS shows about the same in half an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: LOL... You still really have not answered the question.... are the current conditions the same where the models have or west or east or w/e? I think HV21 was just posting it for reference. You can win some brownie points by posting your own analysis and elevating the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: I think HV21 was just posting it for reference. You can win some brownie points by posting your own analysis and elevating the discussion. Good point... next time... I think that this will be entertaining to watch unfold even though we are on the outside looking in. Come on 50 miles WEST is all I ask LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I was noting that there is no risk of that forecast busting due to verification on the high side. Low side yes, but the 12z tendency has been for higher accumulations. I don't believe predicting banding is impossible. It is just way beyond our amateur skill sets. I agree that banding is a wildcard for this storm. CCB is in and out of LI--someone on the west side - probably west of Suffolk will get skunked by subsidence. The mid level banding is north of you in New England when the mid levels close off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, allgame830 said: LOL... You still really have not answered the question.... are the current conditions the same where the models have or west or east or w/e? Lots of good info in here, including links to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Light rates will have no trouble accumulating on the 32F snow with high albedo, in general. And for non-snow/paved surfaces, light to moderate rates will have little problem accumulating after dark, when most of this is supposed to fall, as long as the snowfall rate is probably above 1/4" per hour, which is probably the melting rate at night on 34-36F surfaces with 33-34F air temps - and once a layer of snow accumulates on non-snow/paved surfaces, further accumulation is uninhibited as the snow at 32F is now the new "surface" and melting from 33-34F air is minimal. That's BS. Paved surfaces will be wet, and grassy surfaces will net near zero under those conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Does this the top image match the bottom image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Does this the top image match the bottom image? Looks like the northern stream is in N KY. No model has it being that far south or west at this time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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