USCG RS Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:16 PM, Ericjcrash said: That's more of shot at the HRRR than anything... definitely good trends, however very very late in the game.Again, everything is how these two shortwave intract and then.... We have the Artic s/w coming in. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:18 PM, Rjay said: Expand Need a miraculus 50 west jog in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:19 PM, Ericjcrash said: Still goes east as it gains latitude though. Soon as it gets to about 37n it goes almost due east on a lot of guidance.Because it views the n/s as repelling (ie kicker) the s/s energy VS coalescing (ie phasing) with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Tough forecast - Final Call Light Pink - Coating - 1" Light Blue - 1-3" - Locally 4"+ Dark Blue - 2-4" Locally 6"+ Green - 4-8" Locally 10"+ Red - 6-12" Locally 12"+ Black - 10-18" Locally 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Weenie Radar......maybe Exteneded precip shield ....go figure!!! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Moisture Transport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Some nice echoes in E PA. WAA ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 2:43 PM, NJwx85 said: The could possibly drop Western Suffolk from the Warning, but I think that's highly unlikely. Most guidance gives at least the Eastern 2/3rds of Suffolk warning criteria snowfall. Expand It’s mid March. What falls from the sky and what piles up on the ground will be entirely different. Hedge snowfall totals accordingly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:27 PM, Doorman said: Weenie Radar......maybe Exteneded precip shield ....go figure!!! Expand I know that you're looking at that growing precip in E PA thinking maybe. That's associated with the ULL moving through the lakes and was well modeled. That's forecasted to weaken as the SLP moves Eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The snow near and to the SW of Allentown is legit, the rest of that is virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:27 PM, NJwx85 said: Tough forecast - Final Call Light Pink - Coating - 1" Light Blue - 1-3" - Locally 4"+ Dark Blue - 2-4" Locally 6"+ Green - 4-8" Locally 10"+ Red - 6-12" Locally 12"+ Black - 10-18" Locally 18"+ Expand Dude that is a great map... I was going to draw one up this morning but didn't have time with work and such... u got me on the 2-4" locally 6+ thank you I appreciate it LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:31 PM, jbenedet said: It’s mid March. What falls from the sky and what piles up on the ground will be entirely different. Hedge snowfall totals accordingly...If that Artic ULL is a bit early, we could definitely get some enhanced precip back towards the West Edit: of course your white rain comment still stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 4:53 PM, ZeeTwentyFour said: Nope, sorry. Youngin here. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk Expand That's almost enough of a reason to call DYFS on your parents - completely irresponsible to raise your kids without showing them the classic late 70s/early 80s best comedies ever made, like Animal House, Stripes, Caddyshack, Airplane! and the Python movies. I made sure our son had seen all of these by the time he was 13-14 - he loves them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 4:44 PM, weatherlogix said: Clearly you have never seen the movie Animal House. Expand Forget it. He's rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:18 PM, Rjay said: Expand Nice! Should we assume all or at least 90% of that is snow falling while it's dark (i.e., do we know surface temps)? That would be 3-5" for the vast majority of at least CNJ/NNJ and NYC, assuming they're all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:31 PM, jbenedet said: It’s mid March. What falls from the sky and what piles up on the ground will be entirely different. Hedge snowfall totals accordingly... Expand Not sure about you, but I still have a base of snow on the ground from the past storm in western Suffolk. That, and happening largely overnight will preclude any sun angle concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:27 PM, NJwx85 said: Tough forecast - Final Call Light Pink - Coating - 1" Light Blue - 1-3" - Locally 4"+ Dark Blue - 2-4" Locally 6"+ Green - 4-8" Locally 10"+ Red - 6-12" Locally 12"+ Black - 10-18" Locally 18"+ Expand One minor point: a "line" can't be a snowfall range, i.e., I'm pretty sure you mean, for example, that between red and black is 6-12"/locally 12, not "red" is 6-12" and between green and resd is 4-8", locally 10", not "green" being that. Assuming I have that right, looks like a pretty good map. Also, if you're able to draw countours on the map, I assume you can type/write in text for each band - would be easier than having someone have to look between the text and the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:38 PM, RU848789 said: Nice! Should we assume all or at least 90% of that is snow falling while it's dark (i.e., do we know surface temps)? That would be 3-5" for the vast majority of at least CNJ/NNJ and NYC, assuming they're all snow. Expand It’ll be snow, but it seems to fall over a 12 hour period or so, so in the city it may not accumulate much. Depends how cold it gets overnight and if it can get to moderate intensity. I’m a little encouraged back into Nassau/W Suffolk with the recent small bumps west, but it’ll still probably be advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 12Z Euro is slightly more amped, Northern stream is digging slightly more. Similar to other 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:39 PM, weatherbear5 said: Not sure about you, but I still have a base of snow on the ground from the past storm in western Suffolk. That, and happening largely overnight will preclude any sun angle concerns Expand Normally snow would tend to accumulate on frozen surfaces but putting our clocks forward an hour will make it difficult to accumulate any where on the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:45 PM, Stormlover74 said: Expand Recent guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:39 PM, weatherbear5 said: Not sure about you, but I still have a base of snow on the ground from the past storm in western Suffolk. That, and happening largely overnight will preclude any sun angle concerns Expand Agreed. And same here in northeast Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 4:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Remote but this is a setup where the models have screwed up before. They can view northern stream shortwaves as kickers and be wrong or misplace the low centers slightly due to convection. You won’t see a January 2000 type error but a 70-100 mile gaff is possible Expand 70-100 miles is quite a long barbed spear. Sorry, couldn't resist. We've certainly seen 50-100 mile shifts (considering the combination of where the low forms and then where it tracks) in the last 6-12 hours before an event, sometimes with great impact (Jan 15). A 50-60 mile shift on most models gets NYC into the 6"+ snowfalls, while a 75-100 mile shift does the same for most of NNJ/CNJ (assuming one "lifts and shiifts" the precip exactly). Would think a 50 mile shift is not outlandish, but that a 75 mile shift is extremely unlikely and a 100+ mile shift would be outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Pretty significant changes at H5 on the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:50 PM, RU848789 said: 70-100 miles is quite a long barbed spear. Sorry, couldn't resist. We've certainly seen 50-100 mile shifts (considering the combination of where the low forms and then where it tracks) in the last 6-12 hours before an event, sometimes with great impact (Jan 15). A 50-60 mile shift on most models gets NYC into the 6"+ snowfalls, while a 75-100 mile shift does the same for most of NNJ/CNJ (assuming one "lifts and shiifts" the precip exactly). Would think a 50 mile shift is not outlandish, but that a 75 mile shift is extremely unlikely and a 100+ mile shift would be outlandish. Expand It looks more difficult when you separate the variables, but they all play off one another. If the phase happens a bit earlier, the track comes a bit west, the precip shield enhances, and the arctic energy is given more time to inject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:52 PM, NJwx85 said: 00z 12z Expand Looks more like the NAM. Interested to see the superficial data (QPF, snowfall, etc.). How is the initialization low compared to what's happening in real time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The SLP tracks almost due North, problem is that it starts out so far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:27 PM, NJwx85 said: Tough forecast - Final Call Light Pink - Coating - 1" Light Blue - 1-3" - Locally 4"+ Dark Blue - 2-4" Locally 6"+ Green - 4-8" Locally 10"+ Red - 6-12" Locally 12"+ Black - 10-18" Locally 18"+ Expand So within each accumulation zone there can be spots that match the snowfall forecasted for two zones higher. I believe the meteorological term for that is hedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 On 3/12/2018 at 5:54 PM, NorthShoreWx said: So within each accumulation zone there can be spots that match the snowfall forecasted for two zones higher. I believe the meteorological term for that is hedge. Expand I think that's a more responsible prediction method. It boggles my mind that mets act like we can clearly demarcate accumulation zones when that's just not possible yet. The Capital Weather Gang does similar stuff regarding boom/bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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