Rjay Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It's not coming but have at it. Here's to hoping for a miracle at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 New thread, new hope? Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just to review: EURO: 979 about 150 miles east of the BM NAVGEM: 971 at the BM (weird/encouraging given the SE bias) NAM 12Z : 969 just south of the BM GFS: 966 about 100 miles east of the BM RGEM: 972 about 50 miles east of the BM ICON: 973 about 30 miles east of the BM Things could be much worse 30 hours before a storm is set to start for the eastern 2/3 of the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 47 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Just to review: EURO: 979 about 150 miles east of the BM NAVGEM: 971 at the BM (weird/encouraging given the SE bias) NAM 12Z : 969 just south of the BM GFS: 966 about 100 miles east of the BM RGEM: 972 about 50 miles east of the BM ICON: 973 about 30 miles east of the BM Things could be much worse 30 hours before a storm is set to start for the eastern 2/3 of the forum Meaning much less snow. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowman86 said: Meaning much less snow. Correct? 86 ,,,if you want Snow or a Storm you want those models ideally AT the benchmark or West of it would be better for many------East of it is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: New thread, new hope? Let's do this! More like "new thread, no hope" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's not coming but have at it. Here's to hoping for a miracle at 0z. Damn man I believed in you and now you have let me down... how could u!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 FWIW GEFS were way more amped then the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: FWIW GEFS were way more amped then the op Track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 This storm could’ve been such a huge one for us. Sucks that it’s going to the east of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Bring spring on. xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Track? Track mean is right on BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I'm still trying to figure out why there was a new thread made for this, so confused lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Track mean is right on BM Its at least 50 miles south if not more. But the west leaning members are numerous and bring some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, snow1 said: This storm could’ve been such a huge one for us. Sucks that it’s going to the east of us The other two could have also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Its at least 50 miles south if not more. But the west leaning members are numerous and bring some hope Yea my bad I looked at it more closely now... looks like it’s around 70/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The other two could have also 18 minutes ago, snow1 said: This storm could’ve been such a huge one for us. Sucks that it’s going to the east of us Ummmmm this storm didn’t happen yet. I think the deform band sets right over New York City for 5 hours straight! anthony any word on the sref ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I'm not saying Upton is wrong, I'm saying based on all the banter in this thread am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 So its Game over for NJ when it comes to decent amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Does Upton see the same models we look at but much earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 SREF 15z has jfk at 10 in and islip at 13.5in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, keno19 said: SREF 15z has jfk at 10 in and islip at 13.5in I would go with nam and sref add them together, divide the sum by 2 and there’s your total. I think Central Park hits 6 with this storm! still working on the west trend with my machine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, swataz said: I'm not saying Upton is wrong, I'm saying based on all the banter in this thread am I missing something? You can read each office's Area Forecast Discussion (links: OKX, ALY, PHI) for the reasoning behind their forecasts. Upton weighed the 12z Euro less heavily because of "differences noted in shortwave progression." As it stands, most of us would consider the NWS forecasts for this storm to be very aggressive in light of the data at our disposal, but no responsible poster would explicitly tell you to ignore official forecasts and hazard statements. For better or worse, the NWS doesn't have as much freedom as we do in responding to model shifts, so if guidance continues to look less impressive, it would take them a while to stand down from the snowier cycles of last night and this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, keno19 said: SREF 15z has jfk at 10 in and islip at 13.5in Why are these numbers still so high?? Was the mean inflated by ARW members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Why are these numbers still so high?? Was the mean inflated by ARW members? Its from mid-day. 21Z numbers will be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Yea I never have really trusted sref. Usually they are only good for looking at trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 HTO 15z - 11.83 21z - 13.40 ******************* ISP 15z - 13.44 21z - 12.55 ******************* JFK 15z - 10.28 21z - 8.64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 are the models an HR behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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