SENC Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Interesting forecast, even to the Coast.. rain will overspread the area tonight and Monday as low pressure moves off the coast and then strengthens. Some wintry precipitation is possible as this system pulls away Monday night. Freezing temperatures will affect some inland locations in the early mornings Tuesday, Wednesday, and especially on Thursday. A warming trend will develop late in the week and into next weekend. ---------------------- AND: The NAM is more agressive with the cold air and mid level forcing across the Cape Fear area while the GFS is a little warmer and the forcing is displaced further eastward. The NAM via pure prog kuchera methodology is painting a couple inches of snow mainly across Pender County. Giving the NAM a slight nod while sticking with the GFS and consistency, I have expanded the rain/snow mix a bit further southward around 02-04 UTC with no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Latest HRRR continues to be aggressive with snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Latest HRRR continues to be aggressive with snowfall totals. This is before the deform band in Durham.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Latest HRRR continues to be aggressive with snowfall totals. That is quite astonishing; it would be a very unique surprise if it did somehow verify!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I wouldn’t be shocked to see TSSN reports tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWake Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, SouthCentralWake said: Yes, things starting to look pretty interesting for Triad tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Already down into the 30's so I will admit it wont take much in the way of rates to accumulate. A 2-3 hour burst could do a lot of damage tomorrow PM for schools and traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looking at the radar right now, I gotta feeling this will overperform. That must be very heavy snow out west there. Good luck to NC folks and hope you get a chance at some Thundersnow(Experienced this during the March 09 ULL and it was AMAZING). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I got friends on FB say it is snowing at there house a little while ago? In NW Surry County.... Radar show no such thing, But I'm sure they wouldn't lie about it!!! I down to 37.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I'm terribly confused by the lack of a cold source. Is this gonna be a CAD event that ramps up tomorrow? Or dynamic cooling once the storm bombs? There is no cold air to the west and no freezing temps until you get well into PA. Temps at elevation are in the 40s. So what gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Brad P live on Facebook now and his thinking is that the Raleigh area could get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, kvegas-wx said: I'm terribly confused by the lack of a cold source. Is this gonna be a CAD event that ramps up tomorrow? Or dynamic cooling once the storm bombs? There is no cold air to the west and no freezing temps until you get well into PA. Temps at elevation are in the 40s. So what gives? Snow is Magical !! Should be dynamic cooling with the ULL It has it's own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: I'm terribly confused by the lack of a cold source. Is this gonna be a CAD event that ramps up tomorrow? Or dynamic cooling once the storm bombs? There is no cold air to the west and no freezing temps until you get well into PA. Temps at elevation are in the 40s. So what gives? The cold air with an upper level low is in the mid and upper levels. Precipitation rates drag the cold air down to the surface and you get heavy wet snow with near isothermal soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 You know you're having a bad day when.... .EQUIPMENT... Due to equipment failure, GSO upper air will be unavailable until further notice. Technicians have been notified and are enroute to troubleshoot the problem. With the potential winter storm only 12 hours away, every attempt is being made to restore the equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Wow. This is gonna be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looks like a squall line coming through Wake county on the HRRR. Someone is going to get clobbered tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Looks like a squall line coming through Wake county on the HRRR. Someone is going to get clobbered tomorrow.... Just seeing what we’re seeing, I wouldn’t be shocked to see thunder when the changeover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 This could end up being an awesome system for a few lucky people, yet extremely painful for others. Good luck to everyone in NC! You know us SC peeps are always jealous of your snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 37 minutes ago, NicInNC said: Brad P live on Facebook now and his thinking is that the Raleigh area could get clobbered. Wow...hope he’s right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Oh boy...May end up working from home tomorrow. Traffic chaos in store for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Wow. This is gonna be a good run. Yeah regular 00z NAM is going bonkers in central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The 3K NAM is looking awesome for most all of NC!Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Hi Res NAM looks good for central NC too. Looking like I may be a little too far north for the best rates go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 51 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I got friends on FB say it is snowing at there house a little while ago? In NW Surry County.... Radar show no such thing, But I'm sure they wouldn't lie about it!!! I down to 37.5 Same here on Haystack Road down to 37. Just rain. For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Saving this image....Rush hour tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Oof this'll probably be one of those situations where I watch that snow line on radar get so painful close only to look outside at the rain... I'm a little surprised by the quick development of this bet the asheboro through triangle east folks will get to see a nice heavy snow burst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, calculus1 said: The 3K NAM is looking awesome for most all of NC! Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Is there anyway you can post a map of the 3K? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Saving this image....Rush hour tomorrow.... Did you take note how far south that 540 line is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Did you take note how far south that 540 line is? Yup. That's the ULL. Shows the magnitude of the cold air aloft will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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