Hvward Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I think there is enough model noise to make a thread for this one. 12z NAM suite puts more focus on the development of a deformation band that give snowflakes to a decent portion of NC. I have seen the idea of a secondary low developing behind the main surface low as it moves off the coast of NC and I think that that is something to watch for. That would keep more moisture around to be wrapped back into the ULL. Lots of dynamics at play here, so lets see who (if anyone) scores a late one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Asheville is so close, one way or the other. No snow to good snow. The 12z models look better I think. I am hoping precipitation is heavy. That seems to help bring the snow. Northern mtns, northern foothills, northern piedmont are looking pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Let's all hope the secondary develops and goes to town. Thats whats thrown out the biggest runs over past 5 plus days tracking tbis thing. Hopefully we get one swig of winter weather before tbe long summer settles in over the next several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Ukie is a bit more SE than 0z,ULL coming over at 48 and bombing around 60. Can't tell on temps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie is a bit more SE than 0z,ULL coming over at 48 and bombing around 60. Can't tell on temps yet. It looks pretty good with the system and precip....temps not the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 37 minutes ago, griteater said: It looks pretty good with the system and precip....temps not the best Remember evaporational cooling. Snow making temps drop. How do models handle that sanerio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Euro in and basically the GFS is on an island right now. Euro looks more like UKMet, NAM, CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro in and basically the GFS is on an island right now. Euro looks more like UKMet, NAM, CMC Does that imply a more southerly track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Does that imply a more southerly track? Yes, it looks best in parts of NW NC and SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Every 12z model that I have saw gives Danville 4", the Euro is more 3-4", but thats pretty good consenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 RAH Saturday afternoon... Due to the relatively warm antecedent conditions, the mixed nature of the wintry precip, and a long duration rain event leading up to the changeover, not expecting substantial snow/sleet amounts with this system. However, with upwards of 6-10 hours of wintry mix expected and the potential for a short bursts of heavier precip rates, could see a minor accumulation on grassy surfaces, roughly along and north of the I-85 corridor with the greatest potential from the northern half of the Triad newd into Person and Granville counties. Since not expecting winter storm criteria, do not believe a winter storm watch necessary at this time. However, if the models come together on a consensus with the above scenario, a winter weather advisory may be necessary for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Well, GSP'S AFD is not very exciting, at least for Buncombe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I think Just now, ncjoaquin said: Well, GSP'S AFD is not very exciting, at least for Buncombe. If this storm is a little more southern track you would think Buncombe would at least be under a wwa for Sunday night and Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This should be a solid winter storm for VA. Congrats to those who cash in on the high totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I would think the GFS would come around to the Euro and other models by now with the more southerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWake Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 18Z Nam runs are good for most of NC....surface temps will be a issue and accumulations hard to come by but there could be a 2-4 hr burst of heavier snow that gives a quick slushy 1-2" on elevated and grassy surfaces for the northern 2/3rds of NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: 18Z Nam runs are good for most of NC....surface temps will be a issue and accumulations hard to come by but there could be a 2-4 hr burst of heavier snow that gives a quick slushy 1-2" on elevated and grassy surfaces for the northern 2/3rds of NC.... 3km NAM went way north and gives DC a good snow with the regular NAM as you described and giving them nothing...pretty wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: 3km NAM went way north and gives DC a good snow with the regular NAM as you described and giving them nothing...pretty wild It's close to a full phase. down to 960. Lets see if it goes down to the 950 or 940's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, griteater said: 3km NAM went way north and gives DC a good snow with the regular NAM as you described and giving them nothing...pretty wild Saw maps of the two solutions posted in the MA forum. It's amazing how much they differ, almost like inverses of each other. Of course the MA peeps are hugging the 3K, which seems reasonable from what I have heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Saw maps of the two solutions posted in the MA forum. It's amazing how much they differ, almost like inverses of each other. Of course the MA peeps are hugging the 3K, which seems reasonable from what I have heard. No please no, we deserve for this to stay south for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 18z RGEM looks like it's wanting to go further north also!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 That's a pretty hugh shift north on the 18z NAM 3k from 12z NOT GOOD for NC folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: 18z CMC looks like it's wanting to go further north also!! That's the RGEM. It actually stays south, but it's warmer than some others. Sfc low is pretty far SE there. You can see it out to hr54 on Tropical Tidbits i like the CMC, UKMet, Euro, and regular NAM idea of keeping this a bit south as opposed to the 12z GFS and 3km having it farther north. We'll see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: That's the RGEM. It actually stays south, but it's warmer than some others. Sfc low is pretty far SE there. You can see it out to hr54 on Tropical Tidbits i like the CMC, UKMet, Euro, and regular NAM idea of keeping this a bit south as opposed to the 12z GFS and 3km having it farther north. We'll see though Yeah, you're right that's RGEM! Don't know why I said CMC? Hope you're right on being south !! That was a big jump north for 3k NAM though...... What's your take on accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Yeah, you're right that's RGEM! Don't know why I said CMC? Isn't the RGEM the regional compatriot of the global CMC? Sort of like the relationship between the NAM and the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Isn't the RGEM the regional compatriot of the global CMC? Sort of like the relationship between the NAM and the GFS? Yes, That what I always thought!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 We have been NAMed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yeah, you're right that's RGEM! Don't know why I said CMC? Hope you're right on being south !! That was a big jump north for 3k NAM though...... What's your take on accumulations? I would go dusting to 1 for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 18z GFS shifted slightly southward. Snow accumulations over most of central NC northward into VA. Best accumulations from the NC/VA boarder up through central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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