March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[WintersComing]

Now that's a KU map

That’s sweet. Where did that come from?


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[rcostell]

Long time lurker, slowly learning. Great crew up here-living this one vicariously.  Free James! 

[ROOSTA]

Just now, WintersComing said:

That’s sweet. Where did that come from?


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Home-grown GRADS software. NAM output from yesterday.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol omg first thought. I still can't figure what I get though

At least 12".

[TalcottWx]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So this guy Cranky has an awesome web site with tons of great links but God is he a model hugger. He has a lot of folks thinking he is extremely good at what he does.  He certainly is a proficient tweeter unfortunately those can't be erased. This isn't the first time either. Forky told me about him and his bad forecasts., honestly I don't get the attention he gets. To each his own but read his from Sunday 

I've been following him all day. He couldn't be further off. He's going to crash and burn.

[CarverWX]

Can't wait for this to start. Going to get crushed here and will be able to watch it all day.

[DomNH]

21 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

So maybe I updated the western zones.  Still lack confidence back there, but hard to ignore modeling trends for robust qpf out there.

Caved on the 6-12'', eh?

[BRSno]

3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I've been following him all day. He couldn't be further off. He's going to crash and burn.

I've followed and unfollowed him twice. He's usually not too bad when it comes to the pre-event, but boy does he lose it once he sets his mind on something.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

Can't wait for this to start. Going to get crushed here and will be able to watch it all day.

Could be 8-10" down by 8am if you believe some of these models.  

[CT Valley Snowman]

21z SREF's with a nice 20 spot for the mean at BOS, OWD and a 21 at PYM.      

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

Can't wait for this to start. Going to get crushed here and will be able to watch it all day.

Already starting here.   Already a new coating

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

21z SREF's with a nice 20 spot for the mean at BOS, OWD and a 21 at PYM.      

How about KBED?

[78Blizzard]

Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

21z SREF's with a nice 20 spot for the mean at BOS, OWD and a 21 at PYM.      

I'll take it!!

[CT Valley Snowman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How about KBED?

Not sure but BVY looks like 19.68

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

Not sure but BVY looks like 19.68

Thank you.

I'll play it conservative and say 18".

[ROOSTA]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How about KBED?

Closest plot is for BVY. Mean is about 18" with more members higher than lower. Go HI or go home. LOL

 

Forgot to add URL
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[CarverWX]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Could be 8-10" down by 8am if you believe some of these models.  

Yeah, I thought 18 was a stretch but we could be looking at 20-24 if everything goes right.

[WintersComing]

This is latest way of looking for a way out


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[GansettBay]

I’m fookin hype. That is all

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Wiz - the red lines are omega and the purple/yellow lines are for -10 to -20c and -12c to -18c, respectively. As the temperature profile changes those lines will move up or down. We care about -12c to -18c... it doesn't matter what height those are above the ground (doesn't matter if it's 6,000 feet up to 18,000 feet up if it's moist and you have vertical motion). 

ahhh thanks!!! I've been reading this wrong the entire time...I would always match the yellow/purple lines with the height levels on the right hand side. So for the purple line when it says 0, 5, and 10 and 15 and 20 for yellow that's the temperatures (obviously negative though) 

[CoastalWx]

Tough to bite on 20 here. 

[mahk_webstah]

32 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

So maybe I updated the western zones.  Still lack confidence back there, but hard to ignore modeling trends for robust qpf out there.

Well I see that you bent that green line so you could slip Nashua into the 10-15 zone while unceremoniously pushing me into the 5-10.  More changes are needed.

[Organizing Low]

i just woke up and took a quick look at guidance and then over to the NWS box

granted i dont have access to the ecm guidance, but i think they are a bit conservstive here

im calling for 16-24 with 24+ lollies in eastern MA 

 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Tough to bite on 20 here. 

Is 15 a little easier to chew?

[ORH_wxman]

RPM coming in bonkers so far at 00z...it's been one of the more relatively tame models throughout this threat. It did have one run earlier today that brought 12-16 for most of E MA and RI but outside of that it's been a lot of 8-12 stuff. This run is changing that. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Is 15 a little easier to chew?

LOL. Just not on the top tier of numbers...but a big one for sure.

[WintersComing]

This is the only weather forecast ya'll need to know!!

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[78Blizzard]

I have a feeling that the 0z NAM is going to look a lot like that 18z run last night, lol.

[WintersComing]

RPM coming in bonkers so far at 00z...it's been one of the more relatively tame models throughout this threat. It did have one run earlier today that brought 12-16 for most of E MA and RI but outside of that it's been a lot of 8-12 stuff. This run is changing that. 

Pic?


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[TheSnowman]

I can't post all 6 as it's too big, but ALL 6 of the RI + MA stations' maps pretty much give me Exactly 14" if you judge distance.  Which I've never seen that for a big storm haha.  

 

Also - Can we have SOME KIND of a Live Talk Chat on some app or some something so I can feel like I'm there?  The board is not enough