March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

3k NAM would be a top 10 snowstorm easily. 

I was about to scold you for gross exaggeration, but then I took a look at 500mb and there is really no argument that you are correct. Verbatim 

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

N. Litchfield county has got a ton of snow this season, just this month they got 6-8, then 16-28 last storm, now could be looking at another 6-12ish

Not really bro I'm about 15-20 BN,. maybe far NW Litchfield county, but I'm at 61 i think, avg around 80 ish

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I think high resolution beyond short range is subject to more noise so for this time frame I’d trust neither (NAM) but the 12k more.

Thanks.

Pulling for 3k so Washington can join in the fun too.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

2’ at the Canal. 1-2’ river east. 

We R E

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Which is more realistic, 3k or 12k NAM.

3k is a typical Washington to Boston classic.

I'm actually rather surprised that there is that much variation through those mesh differences...

Almost head scratching why was we get smaller resolution we are ending up with a westward lean - hmm.   I need to think about that one. From my experience, usually, these higher resolution models don't really change those types of aspects; they're better for things like storm component/detailing, such as winds...QPF .. etc.

I dunno. Not sure what to make of that.  I mean I could go science fiction author and say it's convective sequencing where the off-the-charts q-vector forcing first moves over the interface between land/fresh polar air and the west atl heat source... and in fact, there may be something more than fiction about that... but I am less than certain what physical differences there are in these 3 versus 12 versus 32 km runs.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We R E

What?

[ariof]

Not that it means anything, but for fun: the jackpot for snow between the first and second storms moved 80 miles ENE from Schoharie County to southern Vermont. 80 miles further is smack on to Manchester, and given how the FGEN set up last time, would extend down just west of Boston. NAM 3k FTW?

[JC-CT]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

From my experience, usually, these higher resolution models don't really change those types of aspects; they're better for things like storm component/detailing, such as winds...QPF .. etc.

That's not my experience with the NAM.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually rather surprised that there is that much variation through those mesh changes...

Almost head scratching why was we get smaller resolution we are ending up with a westward lean - hmm.   I need to think about that one. From my experience, usually, these higher resolution models don't really change those types of aspects; they're better for things like storm component/detailing, such as winds...QPF .. etc.

I dunno. Not sure what to make of that.  I mean I could go science fiction author and say it's convective sequencing where the off-the-charts q-vector forcing first moves over the interface between land/fresh polar air and the west atl heat source... and in fact, there may be something more than fiction about that... but I am less than certain what physical differences there are in these 3 versus 12 versus 32 km runs.

Thanks

[wxeyeNH]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not quite as extreme but it reminds me (meteorologically...not from memory as I'm not old enough) of the roughly 2 week period between Jan 21-Feb 6, 1978...just kept getting dynamic bomb solutions out of seemingly every threat. Very high dynamics in each system. Also had a rotting NAO block much of the time. 

I remember that period well.  January 21rst storm was the biggest snowfall in Boston history then the Blizzard of 78 two weeks later.  I was a college student at the University of MD and salivated listening to scratchy distant WBZ broadcast what was going on up here.  

[dryslot]

Out riding in the NW territory of Maine, Looks like it’s on!!

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

What?

“We River East”

DIT 101

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

“We River East”

DIT 101

NAM was fine through the berks. 3km even better. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Lol.. Have to ask.. When is 3-6 not serious snow for NYC?

in the new era of the past 15-20 years when 1-2 footers have become commonplace

they are sharing similar company with esne

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ariof said:

Not that it means anything, but for fun: the jackpot for snow between the first and second storms moved 80 miles ENE from Schoharie County to southern Vermont. 80 miles further is smack on to Manchester, and given how the FGEN set up last time, would extend down just west of Boston. NAM 3k FTW?

 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

in the new era of the past 15-20 years when 1-2 footers have become commonplace

they are sharing similar company with esne

3-6 has never been anything more than a moderate event.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not turning it down but it’s forgettable bs what’s being modeled for New England.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That's not my experience with the NAM.

Just so's we be clear yo -

I'm not talking about the NAM in comparison to other guidance.   I'm talking about the 3, 12 and 32 KM version of the NAM. 

But like I said, ...just my experience.  I must admit that I do not look at those finer meshed variations of the NAM on every event- it is entirely possible that the times I have, happened to collocate the low position similarly albeit coincidentally.   But I was aware of this... I was thinking ever time, well... they're not likely to place the low differently, just the attributes ...and seemed to always be the case.

In this situation, the finer the mesh, the more west the low position.  That may be completely understandable from a physics perspective/convective loading and so forth .. If so, could be a sign of where this thing is head in other guidance.  The Euro tonight is going to be pretty heavily sought after as a guidance source to put in nicely -

[CoastalWx]

 Maybe we can make national grid go bankrupt. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

What?

River east 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 Maybe we can make national grid go bankrupt. 

Powder 

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 Maybe we can make national grid go bankrupt. 

They’re not going anywhere.  Wait for the rate hikes lol. 

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just so's we be clear yo -

I'm not talking about the NAM in comparison to other guidance.   I'm talking about the 3, 12 and 32 KM version of the NAM. 

But like I said, ...just my experience.  I must admit that I do not look at those finer meshed variations of the NAM on every event- it is entirely possible that the times I have, happened to collocate the low position similarly albeit coincidentally.   But I was aware of this... I was thinking ever time, well... they're not likely to place the low differently, just the attributes ...and seemed to always be the case.

In this situation, the finer the mesh, the more west the low position.  That may be completely understandable from a physics perspective/convective loading and so forth .. If so, could be a sign of where this thing is head in other guidance.  The Euro tonight is going to be pretty heavily sought after as a guidance source to put in nicely -

No I got you. I'm saying I've noticed the 3km will sometimes show a completely different solution than the 12km, to the point where you scratch your head and wonder if they are really the same model.

[weathafella]

Lol utilities.  National Grid delivers me gas and eversource electric.   Used to be NStar and before that Boston Edison.

[JBinStoughton]

Let’s talk about winds.  12km NAM is sayin 20-25 kt 10 M winds at the height (by me). Thoughts on wind?

[weathafella]

This as modeled is a tide and wind event in addition to snow.

[NorEastermass128]

Low astronomical tides right?

[Sugarloaf1989]

WSW for West Virginia and Virginia. This is for snow Sunday and Monday. Is that related to this storm?

[40/70 Benchmark]

JB comparing it to Jan 1996 lol

[rnaude241]

Love the trends today. I don't need to jack, just want enough to play outside with my kids. 

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, rnaude241 said:

Love the trends today. I don't need to jack, just want enough to play outside with my kids. 

That’s really sweet.  We’ll take your JP lol.