March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[dendrite]

An inch of liquid all the way back to Mitch.

This is a developing situation.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

East folks will remember this for a very long time. Jan 15 2.0

I think west gets hit too. Check out the 3k NAM.

[MaineJayhawk]

Where will Cantore go?

[Typhoon Tip]

Absorb your orgasmic ecstasy ... then, in 20 minutes when breathing again...  We figured for a robuster solution as yet to come.  The question is, is this the last shift ... or is it along a trend.

This run phases closer to 70 percent similar to the GEFs ensemble mean from 12z ...    I don't know if en masse all guidance are done with this correction toward phasing...

I do suspect at this point we are shedding probability for going the other way due to the overwhelming governing flow indicators as discussed. 

 

[butterfish55]

That's gotta be feet for the Cape?

CAPE COD, MA?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[weathafella]

Always a good sign when guidance ramps up run to run inside of 72 hours.

[EastonSN+]

3k NAM is a Washington to Boston I95 crusher

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, butterfish55 said:

CAPE COD, MA?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

I think it' the one in Mass...the one in Uganda may have dry slot issues

[Diggiebot]

3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Where will Cantore go?

Chatham! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Absorb your orgasmic ecstasy ... then, in 20 minutes when breathing again...  We figured for a robuster solution as yet to come.  The question is, is this the last shift ... or is it along a trend.

This run phases closer to 70 percent similar to the GEFs ensemble mean from 12z ...    I don't know if en masse all guidance are done with this correction toward phasing...

I do suspect at this point we are shedding probability for going the other way due to the overwhelming governing flow indicators as discussed. 

 

Good job with this one, man...all over it-

[BRSno]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

3k NAM is a Washington to Boston I95 crusher

Yeah, that'd be a forum crasher lol

[EastonSN+]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Pope feeling this one as well

[NorEastermass128]

2’ at the Canal. 1-2’ river east. 

[JBinStoughton]

Maybe we can bring this in a little slower and a little closer? Just a touch?

[EastonSN+]

[Hoth]

3k would be epic.

[EastonSN+]

[Ginx snewx]

24.2 Harwich Cape Cod Massachusetts USA on the NAM

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said:

Maybe we can bring this in a little slower and a little closer? Just a touch?

I won't fight ya. 

[EastonSN+]

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

24.2 Harwich Cape Cod Massachusetts USA on the NAM

 Can you give all of us the weenie deets.

[EastonSN+]

3k NAM would be a top 10 snowstorm easily. 

[Hoth]

Wouldn't it be great to celebrate the 25th anniversary of one of the greatest winter storms in history with a crushing encore performance?

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to add hysteria already to detonating powder -keg of excitement, but ... I'm actually surprised the surface low was more pulled back west. Not a lot, but a little more, as the 500mb features were a bit more dramatic it seemed.

Nevertheless, that impressive how at 78 hours, you can really see this thing wants to stall... it does, because the 84 hour frame doesn't give that any option to escape the clutches of the N/stream .. .so in fact, this is captured enough to delay departure as it is. Fascinating...

[wxeyeNH]

Fantastic model trends today.  What a great part of the country we live in if you are a weather enthusiast.   This trifecta of 3 powerful storms back to back to back.  Wow.  Relish these times when we are in a weather lull.  On to the GFS...

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to add hysteria already to detonating powder -keg of excitement, but ... I'm actually surprised the surface low was more pulled back west. Not a lot, but a little more, as the 500mb features were a bit more dramatic it seemed.

Nevertheless, that impressive how at 78 hours, you can really see this thing wants to stall... it does, because the 84 hour frame doesn't give that any option to escape the clutches of the N/stream .. .so in fact, this is captured enough to delay departure as it is. Fascinating...

Which is more realistic, 3k or 12k NAM.

3k is a typical Washington to Boston classic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to add hysteria already to detonating powder -keg of excitement, but ... I'm actually surprised the surface low was more pulled back west. Not a lot, but a little more, as the 500mb features were a bit more dramatic it seemed.

Nevertheless, that impressive how at 78 hours, you can really see this thing wants to stall... it does, because the 84 hour frame doesn't give that any option to escape the clutches of the N/stream .. .so in fact, this is captured enough to delay departure as it is. Fascinating...

Should stall given trends. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Fantastic model trends today.  What a great part of the country we live in if you are a weather enthusiast.   This trifecta of 3 powerful storms back to back to back.  Wow.  Relish these times when we are in a weather lull.  On to the GFS...

Not quite as extreme but it reminds me (meteorologically...not from memory as I'm not old enough) of the roughly 2 week period between Jan 21-Feb 6, 1978...just kept getting dynamic bomb solutions out of seemingly every threat. Very high dynamics in each system. Also had a rotting NAO block much of the time. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Which is more realistic, 3k or 12k NAM.

3k is a typical Washington to Boston classic.

I think high resolution beyond short range is subject to more noise so for this time frame I’d trust neither (NAM) but the 12k more.