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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

always thought that was just a RAP prog

part of the equation

The SPC runs a comprehensive surface objective analysis scheme called SFCOA. The system runs at the top of each hour, using the latest 40km RAP forecast grids as a first guess. Next, the surface data is merged with the latest RAP forecast/analysis upper-air data to represent a 3-dimensional current objective analysis. Finally, each gridpoint is post-processed with a sounding analysis routine called NSHARP to calculate many technical diagnostic fields related to severe storms.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

part of the equation

The SPC runs a comprehensive surface objective analysis scheme called SFCOA. The system runs at the top of each hour, using the latest 40km RAP forecast grids as a first guess. Next, the surface data is merged with the latest RAP forecast/analysis upper-air data to represent a 3-dimensional current objective analysis. Finally, each gridpoint is post-processed with a sounding analysis routine called NSHARP to calculate many technical diagnostic fields related to severe storms.

Thanks steve

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JBinStoughton

JBinStoughton

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not trusting a nammy placement of a deform band, call me crazy.

How can anybody say for certain where it will set up. The storm really hasn’t even come together yet.  The point is there probably will be significant mid level features. Shifts are obviously possible and even as the storm moves along. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Appreciate the guidance, would you mind explaining a bit?

Well the satellite has different bands with different wavelengths that measure wv at different levels. I think the rule of thumb was that the more typically used wv images showed you wv around the 600mb level. I haven’t gotten enough into GOES-R to know what micrometer wavelengths they use for their lower, mid, and upper wv maps. I think the mid trop one is 6.9um. Plus there’s the fact you’re comparing vorticity to water vapor. I’m just not sure I would be hyperscrutinizing the two looking for comparisons or model error.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If I get a foot Kev and JC has been adamant about, I’ll quit the board.

I've been adamant that you aren't out of the game for the mid level magic. Not adamant that you will definitely end up in a 25 mile wide band.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well the satellite has different bands with different wavelengths that measure wv at different levels. I think the rule of thumb was that the more typically used wv images showed you wv around the 600mb level. I haven’t gotten enough into GOES-R to know what micrometer wavelengths they use for their lower, mid, and upper wv maps. I think the mid trop one is 6.9um. Plus there’s the fact you’re comparing vorticity to water vapor. I’m just not sure I would be hyperscrutinizing the two looking for comparisons or model error.

Ok thanks. bun me!

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