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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland


Typhoon Tip

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  On 3/12/2018 at 6:56 PM, wxeyeNH said:

What a great storm for everyone in the whole New England forum.  12" for everyone till you get into the NYC metro.  Even the islands score.  Doesn't happen often for sure, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!

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Seems more promising with this Euro run but I'm holding back my chubby until I see a couple more models fall in line.  The Euro hasn't been the "take that to the bank" model as of lately.

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  On 3/12/2018 at 6:48 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

The northern stream vort has essentially caught the southern stream one......feel like I need one of Tip's head spinning posts about what this means.

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Ha ha ... you know what's going on ...

My deal is I just like babbling about it.   

I will add.. the N/stream mechanics have been partially merging vorticity fields in the guidance' but then... somehow, ejecting it back out like it got a piece of rotten meat half way down it's gullet and decided it didn't like the taste and spit it back out toward NS...  

Yet another metapor, usually objects can't get back outside the "event horrizon" once they've crossed that far over that critical boundary/entered the gravity well so to speaking. 

Anyway, I would have thought a purer phase given the overall synoptic evolution... and I'm a little worried that the whole mess was/is just a little too complex even for the conceit of these modern technological marvels of weather modeling.  

So babble aside... you basically nailed it - the N/stream vorticiity is already engaging the southern stream (so it seems...) and that's precarious.  Subsequently, be unusual to share space and then suddenly "de" share space

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  On 3/12/2018 at 6:58 PM, WintersComing said:

Seems more promising with this Euro run but I'm holding back my chubby until I see a couple more models fall in line.  The Euro hasn't been the "take that to the bank" model as of lately.

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  On 3/12/2018 at 6:59 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha ... you know what's going on ...

My deal is I just like babbling about it.   

I will add.. the N/stream mechanics have been partially merging vorticity fields in the guidance' but then... somehow, ejecting it back out like it got a piece of rotten meat half way down it's gullet and decided it didn't like the taste and spit it back out toward NS...  

Yet another metapor, usually objects can't get back outside the "event horrizon" once they've crossed that far over that critical boundary/entered the gravity well so to speaking. 

Anyway, I would have thought a purer phase given the overall synoptic evolution... and I'm a little worried that the whole mess was/is just a little too complex even for the conceit of these modern technological marvels of weather modeling.  

So babble aside... you basically nailed it - the N/stream vorticiity is already engaging the southern stream (so it seems...) and that's a precarious.  Subsequently, be unusual to share space and then suddenly "de" share space

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ironic on this date we discuss triple phasers

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