March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[ajisai]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Taunton MA346 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018MAZ006-007-014>016-018-019-021-022-121600-/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z//O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0007.180313T0300Z-180314T0000Z/Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Including the cities of Lawrence, Gloucester, Cambridge, Boston,Quincy, Brockton, Plymouth, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth,and Provincetown346 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PMEDT TUESDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow expected with near blizzard conditions. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 17 inches, with localized amounts up to 22 inches, are expected.* WHERE...Portions of eastern Massachusetts.* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible, especially during the Tuesday morning and potential the Tuesday evening commute. Damage to trees and power lines are possible due to strong wind gusts. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weatherconditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If youmust travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in yourvehicle in case of an emergency.

Come to papi

[apm]

The LP and EPS did tick east again though (precip shield notwithstanding)  hopefully this trend stops here.

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, apm said:

The LP and EPS did tick east again though (precip shield notwithstanding)  hopefully this trend stops here.

When the national weather service and Harvey Leonard are both agreeing on 12-24", don't worry too much

[BombsAway1288]

Yep. Taunton continues to bite. 

[TalcottWx]

Winter Storm Warnings issued for all of southern New England.
Did give some thought to Blizzard Warnings, but since only have
moderate confidence in the precise storm track, prefer to let
the next shift take another look,

[TalcottWx]

Remember last storm in January when BOS definitely had blizzard conditions and for some absolutely stupid reason they claimed it didn't verify? 

[powderfreak]

Oh man at that 6z NAM run too.

QPF Queen delight.  Sign me up for 1.8" with decent snow growth.

Im thinking similar to Ray up here if the model have any clue... 15-30" in the mountains by Thursday night.

 

[TalcottWx]

RGEM would be a toaster bath. It's still 6-12" east of ORH, but it's just a moderate snow storm.

6z NAM would be a good storm though.

Something doesn't feel right with me on this one for those massive totals. 

[CoastalWx]

RGEM is rather low and shift east with the main action.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

RGEM would be a toaster bath. It's still 6-12" east of ORH, but it's just a moderate snow storm.

6z NAM would be a good storm though.

Something doesn't feel right with me on this one for those massive totals. 

Yeah I agree. I'm certainly not comfortable with the super big amounts currently. 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

RGEM is rather low and shift east with the main action.

I'm honestly surprised more people aren't mentioning this as potentially being a Cape and SE MA special..... 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

I'm honestly surprised more people aren't mentioning this as potentially being a Cape and SE MA special..... 

I could see mid level magic well west. My issue is that if the main CCB is over the Cape, and you have a 15-20 mile wide band to the west, someone is going to get lower totals in between. Euro was a crusher, but these subtle shifts E or W will really have an effect. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

I'm honestly surprised more people aren't mentioning this as potentially being a Cape and SE MA special..... 

That would imply it's not a big deal NW of that...doubt it ends up that extreme. I'd be surprised if inside of 495 got less than 8 inches....but I'm also not biting on huge amounts yet. There's def a chance the best   Banding stays a bit east. RGEM shows that danger. 

Hopefully we get a rapid convergence of solutions at 12z to remove some of the uncertainty. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I could see mid level magic well west. My issue is that if the CCB is over the Cape, and you h ave a 15-20 mile wide band to the west, someone is going to get lower totals in between. Euro was a crusher, but these subtle shifts E or W will really have an effect. 

A 15-20 mile band to the west, Ray has been meditating on this band to the point of being consumed By it and mitch's 3" deform Last Storm.

 

Wilmington has A much better Shot at 7" then 24"+ 

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would imply it's not a big deal NW of that...doubt it ends up that extreme. I'd be surprised if inside of 495 got less than 8 inches....but I'm also not biting on huge amounts yet. There's def a chance the best   Banding stays a bit east. RGEM shows that danger. 

Hopefully we get a rapid convergence of solutions at 12z to remove some of the uncertainty. 

Well, just to confirm what I am saying: difference between a moderate and major snowstorm.

They thought about blizzard warnings for areas this morning. I think a 6-12" would be a bust in many eyes here and in Taunton. Interesting to see multiple shifts confirm the big totals there. Also important to keep in mind Harvey is fully on board.

Another thing to explain further regarding potential blizzard warnings: BOX has been very hesitant to release those outside of our most major storms. Yes, plenty of blowing and drifting could occur with 6-12", but BOX usually doesn't throw around the blizz warn for that.

[Damage In Tolland]

Absolutely no changes . Everything has 6-12 CT river east and 4-8 west. What’s so difficult ?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I'm honestly surprised more people aren't mentioning this as potentially being a Cape and SE MA special..... 

Just dont go east

[TalcottWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A 15-20 mile band to the west, Ray has been meditating on this band to the point of being consumed By it and mitch's 3" deform Last Storm.

 

Wilmington has A much better Shot at 7" then 24"+ 

I'd be shocked if Ray sees less than a foot. But he definitely has a better shot at 12" than 24".

I can't see a mitch situation. That thing rotted over his head for how many hours? I don't see bands staying that stagnant on modeling for a significant duration over one location on any guidance. 

Bottom line, QPF is a load of horse sh*t in the end. We'd be sitting pretty no matter what in the mid levels. 

Definitely east of ORH. I don't even buy warnings that far west to NY State border. I don't get it at all. Inside of BOS could easily be limited to 6-12" with a 12-24" region near the canal, se ma, and the cape.

Very weird for me to see BOX so all in despite lack of overall consensus. Their confidence builds mine. But if Harvey was on the 6-12" train, I'd be completely off the bandwagon. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is a little east with the goods too.

 

Edit: similar to 00z to be honest.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolutely no changes . Everything has 6-12 CT river east and 4-8 west. What’s so difficult ?

Just the difference between 1 and 2 feet among friends in E MA 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is a little east with the goods too.

Less amped.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Go w your gut and the models

This is a 965 Monster , its also a cape storm imo.

Maybe maybe we see 2-4 hrs under a narrow deform band, nobody forecasts being under one for about #$/@ reasons

Annnnnd the GFS just took the lowered the monster 10mb in one run at 06z.

 

[CoastalWx]

These are just things to watch. Nobody needs to jump or only say "Cape storm." We'll see what 12z brings. 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These are just things to watch. Nobody needs to jump or only say "Cape storm." We'll see what 12z brings. 

As I previously explained.....

I am talking about the difference between a moderate and major storm for E MA outside of SE MA and Cape. If the major snowfall ends up down there. It's a Cape storm.

[weathafella]

GFS did not change the qpf disruptions.  Looks nearly identical where it brings the goods.   NAM was similar..  RGEM went a bit in the meh direction.   I would not change a thing from my thinking of 12+ in general ORH east with the possibility of spectacular amounts mbedded.

[CoastalWx]

The NAM banding signature is off the hizzy.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Well, just to confirm what I am saying: difference between a moderate and major snowstorm.

They thought about blizzard warnings for areas this morning. I think a 6-12" would be a bust in many eyes here and in Taunton. Interesting to see multiple shifts confirm the big totals there. Also important to keep in mind Harvey is fully on board.

Another thing to explain further regarding potential blizzard warnings: BOX has been very hesitant to release those outside of our most major storms. Yes, plenty of blowing and drifting could occur with 6-12", but BOX usually doesn't throw around the blizz warn for that.

There isn't that huge of a difference between 6-12 and something like 10-16. Harvey's 12+ is for a pretty narrow zone. If you get 10 inches instead of 13, it's not really much of a bust...not unless you are secretly buying these runs that give you 18+. 

 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The NAM banding signature is off the hizzy.

That's an eyegrabber. Goes absolutely bonkers once mid levels collect.

If that verifies, 12+ east of ORH without a doubt.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There isn't that huge of a difference between 6-12 and something like 10-16. Harvey's 12+ is for a pretty narrow zone. If you get 10 inches instead of 13, it's not really much of a bust...not unless you are secretly buying these runs that give you 18+. 

 

I was speaking in regards to some of the astronomical amounts being thrown around it just doesn't seem like a slam dunk.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I was speaking in regards to some of the astronomical amounts being thrown around it just doesn't seem like a slam dunk.

They aren't a slam dunk. Someone will prob get over 18 but just don't go into the storm thinking it will be you. Some lucky peeps in a band will get it on like 0.93" of qpf.