March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[wxsniss]

Southeast MA gets crushed at 42 hrs... this looks very similar to 0z last night

12z 3/11 Euro run was officially a burp

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Coming northwest... thru 30 hrs this looks more like last night's 0z than the awful 12z run earlier today

Figured it would.

[TalcottWx]

Anymore details. I'm too lazy to get out of bed

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Anymore details. I'm too lazy to get out of bed

2" cape cod, 1.2" bos, 0.5" CT river. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

DT is adamant that Euro, RGEM and UK all trended east at 00z lol

[wxsniss]

0.5 to HFD / CT river

0.8 to ORH

1" to ~ 495

1.2 through BOS

1.8-2" PLY through Cape

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

0.5 to HFD / CT river

0.8 to ORH

1" to ~ 495

1.2 through BOS

1.8-2" PLY through Cape

Sounds similar to 12z..tick west 

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT is adamant that Euro, RGEM and UK all trended east at 00z lol

The sfc low is further east on the euro as it passes new england, but the circulation is much larger and there's more phasing with the northern stream trough, so it seems like an academic point as opposed to anything meaningful sensibly. 

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sounds similar to 12z..tick west 

nah, this is like 2/3 more qpf than the 12z across the board, more similar to last night's 00z. 

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT is adamant that Euro, RGEM and UK all trended east at 00z lol

It's not even ambiguous, RGEM / UK / Euro all trended west at 0z

I did think 0z GFS ticked southeast in SLP position / maybe it gave that appearance because timing was different, but I give that little weight relative to other guidance at this point

Solid consolidation of guidance tonight: 10-20" is well supported east of 495

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

nah, this is like 2/3 more qpf than the 12z across the board, more similar to last night's 00z. 

Ok...I'm mobile on plane, so thanks.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ok...I'm mobile on plane, so thanks.

yep np. 

[wxsniss]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sounds similar to 12z..tick west 

It's much better than 12z... 1" qpf:  to 495 on 0z vs. only to canal on 12z

This run has good continuity with last night's 0z... something made the 12z 3/11 Euro burp

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like my area to Boston for deformation....3' in the cards.

Could see some WTF rates. 

[wxsniss]

How about this for a trend friend... 

This most recent run is the most robust Euro run to hit SNE in the past 5 runs

Current > Sun 0z > Sat 12z > Sun 12z > Sat 0z

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like my area to Boston for deformation....3' in the cards.

I'm weary seems like we never ever ever deform. 

[TalcottWx]

H7 track can't be denied but just saying

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

I'm weary seems like we never ever ever deform. 

I know..read my mind.....will find a way to be ORH or cape 

[The 4 Seasons]

Ok, I've seen enough, pulling the trigger on a warning snowfall statewide. Least snowfall expect in the extreme western parts of CT, greatest chance for double digits and possibly a foot or so is in eastern CT and the hills of NE CT. 

I may adjust this tomorrow but this is where i stand as of now. A bit west of the modeled qpf blend due to mid levels and track/strength of the slp. 

[Roger Smith]

Snow ends when? (map above) ... looks like it doesn't match line before it

 

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know..read my mind.....will find a way to be ORH or cape 

Just going to roll with 10-15" for now as general forecast east of ORH. Seems like we have too much to work out. That's a very good storm too

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Just going to roll with 10-15" for now as general forecast east of ORH. Seems like we have too much to work out. That's a very good storm too

Thinking of going from 10-20 to 15-30"...isolated 3'.

[TalcottWx]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thinking of going from 10-20 to 15-30"...isolated 3'.

Not bought on the duration for 15-30". I'll say I haven't kept an eagle eye on this like last storm. I could see low 20's. Like 10-15" then 16-24"

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks better too. 

[BombsAway1288]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks better too. 

Great news all around tonight on the 0z runs. Hopefully it continues tomorrow or dare I say, even better?...

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks better too. 

What's your take on these high end amounts? I rarely see Ray buy in so I'm curious 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Winter Storm warning for NWS zones in SNE. I thought this was supposed to be cancelled back this way?

[powderfreak]

Can't argue with this run of the Euro.

Looking sweet.  Snowy week coming up with 1-2 feet for BOS and the mountains.  

[TalcottWx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
346 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018


MAZ006-007-014>016-018-019-021-022-121600-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0007.180313T0300Z-180314T0000Z/
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-
Including the cities of Lawrence, Gloucester, Cambridge, Boston,
Quincy, Brockton, Plymouth, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth,
and Provincetown
346 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected with near blizzard conditions. Total
  snow accumulations of 12 to 17 inches, with localized amounts
  up to 22 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
  impossible, especially during the Tuesday morning and potential
  the Tuesday evening commute. Damage to trees and power lines are
  possible due to strong wind gusts. Be prepared for significant
  reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

What's your take on these high end amounts? I rarely see Ray buy in so I'm curious 

He's been pretty agressive this season at big lead times, it's been fun to watch.  Gets an idea going and rolls with it...it's seemed to work out.