March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is a 7H low over benchmark usually good

*stares*

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

*stares*

I can see the ML goodies on nam, on gfs

I see them for cape...and more progressive

Its actually se of b.m

[CCHurricane]

Feel free to share your thoughts on the attached map from both a meteorological perspective and design/appearance.

I'd expect amounts once you get to NH to be a bit higher tbh, haven't come up with a clean way to represent it on the map just yet.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CCHurricane said:

Feel free to share your thoughts on the attached map from both a meteorological perspective and design/appearance.

Reminds me of Art Lake

[TheSnowman]

Art Lake!  Blast from the Past.  

 

Guys I'm driving through Marathon Key  watching a Florida lightning show in the sea as I go through key by key .  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hoping the ukie trends west toward flemish cap

[ice1972]

Hate me some DST.....seriously 

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I can see the ML goodies on nam, on gfs

I see them for cape...and more progressive

Its actually se of b.m

The NAM has the deformation back to Worcester.

Euro back to 495.

[TalcottWx]

15 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Hate me some DST.....seriously 

My sleep schedule is destroyed. 

Luckily Tuesday I may have my day job canceled. That would be a true gift. 

[TheSnowman]

Ray is back home.  I'm at my spot in the Keys.  Time for a Pinacolada and Model Watching to see if I hop on a 12pm flight back to RI for 48 hours....    

[40/70 Benchmark]

My fear with this is the deformation misses east and it becomes a CJ....pinned along the shore from Boston to KPYM and I get like 6-8" over 12 hours.  Unsatisfying, yet enough for people to b@tch about me b@tching.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

Ray is back home.  I'm at my spot in the Keys.  Time for a Pinacolada and Model Watching to see if I hop on a 12pm flight back to RI for 48 hours....    

 I' just departing Seattle.....be home at 6.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie was a bit deeper and west of 12z.

968mb at tues 18z.

Bout 39.5/68 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie was a bit deeper and west of 12z.

968mb at tues 18z.

Bout 39.5/68 

2 East outliers trended west.

I think Euro tics west.

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Ray is back home.  I'm at my spot in the Keys.  Time for a Pinacolada and Model Watching to see if I hop on a 12pm flight back to RI for 48 hours....    

For christ sake. I'd kill to travel like you do. Stay there man. 

[OSUmetstud]

UK looks like 2"+ for the cape and 1.5" for BOS, maybe 1" for HFD?  

[78Blizzard]

The Ukie still looks to give 12+ to E MA, more for the Cape.

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

UK looks like 2"+ for the cape and 1.5" for BOS, maybe 1" for HFD?  

Fine with me

[Organizing Low]

interesting to see the US models paste a secondary maxima (albeit over a few days) over vermont with the upper low, the gfs actually gives more qpf (FWIW) to vermont than eastern mass LOL

[wxsniss]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My fear with this is the deformation misses east and it becomes a CJ....pinned along the shore from Boston to KPYM and I get like 6-8" over 12 hours.  Unsatisfying, yet enough for people to b@tch about me b@tching.

Ray what do you use to estimate deformation band location?

I know it's due to convergence of moisture + divergence at H7 and H5... but do you use RH at H7... divergence at H7/H5... frontogenesis... general northwest edge of qpf ...?

[The 4 Seasons]

3Z RPM with another move west 

[wxsniss]

UK total qpf clear move west

~1" to ORH

~1.2-1.5" inside 495

1.5-2" southeast Mass into Cape

0z UK + RGEM best signs so far tonight that east trend has stopped

[Thunderblizzard]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

3Z RPM with another move west 

Can you post?

UKMET QPF

[ice1972]

Wut we need - actually what I need - is a deform band set up west....like last time....and just puke snow and rot over my azz for hours....that’s wut I need....and a vodka

[ncforecaster89]

26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

UK looks like 2"+ for the cape and 1.5" for BOS, maybe 1" for HFD?  

If those figures actually verify, and simply usuing a standard 10:1 ratio, it would qualify as a top 10 March event for both KBOS and KHFD, alone.  With bulk of precip occurring on Tuesday, would also likely break the single day MARCH snowfall record for KBOS of 13.2” from 3/19/1956!  In other words, potential for an historic storm/blizzard IF it phases and tracks close enough to BM.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

UK total qpf clear move west

~1" to ORH

~1.2-1.5" inside 495

1.5-2" southeast Mass into Cape

0z UK + RGEM best signs so far tonight that east trend has stopped

Yeah... good to see something trend back west a bit.

the UK is a massive hit.. 1 tick away from historic 

[RoboMaine]

Buckled up....let's see if Mr. N Stream takes the dive and gives me the crushing GOM slowdown/capture.    Returning to professional lurking mode after using my one post per winter format.

[The 4 Seasons]

ECMWF is already more negatively tilted at H5 at hour 12 compared to hr 24 at 12Z.

This will almost certainly come west from that run.

[Thunderblizzard]

Euro looks like a big improvement over 12z.

[wxsniss]

Coming northwest... thru 30 hrs this looks more like last night's 0z than the awful 12z run earlier today