March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Were is that on the EURO? My guess is Plymouth...

-12C at 700 is BOS to Ginxy at 12z Tuesday and then slides east. 

[CoastalWx]

But I need to see how the forcing looks through 500. It looked like deeper lift was east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

-12C at 700 is BOS to Ginxy at 12z Tuesday and then slides east. 

Unless this slides east, I find it hard to envision Steve getting into and me missing it.

[JC-CT]

GEFS must have some west members in there. Better than the OP

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

But I need to see how the forcing looks through 500. It looked like deeper lift was east.

700RH was centered on KPYM.

[78Blizzard]

21 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Navgem ftw!

Well W of GFS, and even a bit NNW of 12z GFS.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I know Ray will not enjoy this but is the possibility of an inverted trough to the west still there? It was being modeled a couple of days back...

[weathafella]

So the trend today is further east but a great look in the mid levels.  Will it tug back west a tick or keep going east or stay?   Ensembles suggest it could tick west?  Or is that my weenie goggles?

[wxsniss]

Have toggled ad nauseum looking for the flaw to dismiss the Euro vs. RAPs at H5. Can't find an obvious flag.

There was lots of discussion about the northern stream and better sampling later tonight... perhaps a bigger culprit to watch is the southern stream energy, which imo is the biggest difference 18z GFS / 12z Euro compared to their prior bigger hit runs.

I also went back and trended past 5 RAP runs for H5 at 6z Monday, and you can see the energy over Tennessee trends subtly more robust, so there may be validity to the trend in the GFS/Euro. This more robust southern stream energy stays dominant longer, and delays the "subsume" process thereby dragging the system further east.

I think we want to see this trend reverse for the closer benchmark tracks that hit western areas hard too, and there is still time.

Obviously areas eastern/southeastern SNE have more buffer whether this ticks east or west, and the mid-level fronto will deliver if the qpf maps do not with the farther ots tracks, though verbatim the best lift on 18z GFS looks just offshore. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Watches cancel.

lol yup, a joke and I called it hours ago

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The models, including the vaunted EURO, only properly diagnose precipitation born of low level forcing....that is the heavy amounts that you see to the east.

In a system this well developed, there will be another band that is even heavier just to the west of the H7 Dry slot that will deposit the heaviest amounts..

This is what impacted W CT, the berkshires and s VT last event.

I'd hit this band up

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

18z Extended Reggie

 

lolol from 35mm to 10mm....pos

[dryslot]

18z GGEM

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Yep Scott,  lock me in for my 6-12".  I do have a question for you.  During that last storm the pivot/deformation band sat over the W Mass/S VT to give them the high totals.  Given the slp track now SE of the benchmark where would that probably set up?  Seems like there is many times a secondary max way west?  Edit.  Since I wrote this and reviewing the new posts my question has been answered,  further east than me!

Who is Scott

[WintersComing]

lol yup, a joke and I called it hours ago

For where?


.

[J Paul Gordon]

Have to check back in later to see if this isn't the normal, "Take me to the bridge", stuff that happens every time the models update or whether it misses us altogether. NWS hasn't done too badly lately (unless snow is the ONLY factor,in which case the monster that slammed us a week ago last Friday was a bust--when in fact it was a wicked good storm to watch unfold). Last week was amazing in the Berks and most of the rest of us west and north of 495 did OK or better. NWS is being prudent right now, if you look at the forecast discussion, but seems pretty convinced it isn't going to be a whiff. Should be a lock in by late tonight, tomorrow morning.

[Whineminster]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On that EURO run, its east of there.

Reality....probably either Worcester of CJ land.

Unless it trends west tonight....then FIT

[J Paul Gordon]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z GGEM

looks good for ORH east on that.

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

For where?


.

western and west central zone where the forgotten live

[weathafella]

CMC/nogaps are forming an alliance.  Not who I’d want to go to war with...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

western and west central zone where the forgotten live

There was zero investment, or should be have been, out west. Our time will come, Ray predicts a river on west hecs on Jan 15th 2019...patience. 

[weathafella]

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

b4 the euro

[NorEastermass128]

Word on the street is that Cantore just checked into Rockport. Game on!

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So the trend today is further east but a great look in the mid levels.  Will it tug back west a tick or keep going east or stay?   Ensembles suggest it could tick west?  Or is that my weenie goggles?

Mid levels always win . Tug her west 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There was zero investment, or should be have been, out west. Our time will come, Ray predicts a river on west hecs on Jan 15th 2019...patience. 

I invested you and you will be thanking me tomorrow 

[BRSno]

HRDPS not nearly as bad as the RGEM

[Damage In Tolland]

See this for the west of river folks.. this is called forcing and is why you will do well

banding

[HullMA]

8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Word on the street is that Cantore just checked into Rockport. Game on!

That may bode well for me lets hope for thundersnow! I am surprised he didnt take the south shore. Give him more options. The cape may jack.

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

b4 the euro

Time stamp is after