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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland


Typhoon Tip
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Pretty skeptical right now of big snows far west into New England. Never really bought in to this full blizzard idea that seems to be in favor right now. Tip did a good job of explaining why. These last two euro and gfs runs are certainly solid examples. Just a moderate type of snowfall.

I really hope I'm wrong, but to say this is a slam dunk, would be misleading. 

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Okay,  not to be a Debbie here but I'm not seeing what everyone is so excited about with today's trends.  Just looked at the Euro and GFS.  Euro run shifted east from 0Z.  18Z GFS shifted precip east from 12Z.  Sure its a huge storm,  960 something but the trend which was great all weekend has come to a halt.  Yeah the 18Z NAM was epic but like people always say, its the NAM.  I would rather go with the big boys.  Too bad the 12Z come in so late now...

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Okay,  not to be a Debbie here but I'm not seeing what everyone is so excited about with today's trends.  Just looked at the Euro and GFS.  Euro run shifted east from 0Z.  18Z GFS shifted precip east from 12Z.  Sure its a huge storm,  960 something but the trend which was great all weekend has come to a halt.  Yeah the 18Z NAM was epic but like people always say, its the NAM.  I would rather go with the big boys.  Too bad the 12Z come in so late now...

I don't know about you Gene but a solid 6 to 12 is pretty exciting 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't know about you Gene but a solid 6 to 12 is pretty exciting 

Yep Scott,  lock me in for my 6-12".  I do have a question for you.  During that last storm the pivot/deformation band sat over the W Mass/S VT to give them the high totals.  Given the slp track now SE of the benchmark where would that probably set up?  Seems like there is many times a secondary max way west?  Edit.  Since I wrote this and reviewing the new posts my question has been answered,  further east than me!

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The models, including the vaunted EURO, only properly diagnose precipitation born of low level forcing....that is the heavy amounts that you see to the east.

In a system this well developed, there will be another band that is even heavier just to the west of the H7 Dry slot that will deposit the heaviest amounts..

This is what impacted W CT, the berkshires and s VT last event.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The models, including the vaunted EURO, only properly diagnose precipitation born of low level forcing....that is the heavy amounts that you see to the east.

In a system this well developed, there will be another band that is even heavier just to the west of the H7 Dry slot that will deposit the heaviest amounts..

This is what impacted W CT, the berkshires and s VT last event.

Imo that band is vicinity of ORH

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What you want to do is diagnose H7-H5 features and corresponding temps. Recall DGZ is -12 to -18C. Wherever that temp profiles lies need to have lift and RH. Sometimes it’s as low as 700mb, sometimes it’s above 600mb. 

Were is that on the EURO? My guess is Plymouth...

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