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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland


Typhoon Tip

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  On 3/11/2018 at 6:51 PM, Logan11 said:

Fortunately for a lot of you outside of southeast NE the Euro isn't much of a king anymore.  It could jump back west at 0Z.  For here it still has .5" from the IVT and convergence and that's all I'm ever getting so it's good.

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It has been remarkably scattershot if you look back over several days. Several out past Bermuda, only to pop up to NS in the next run.

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  On 3/11/2018 at 6:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a wild science fiction plot ...

Supposin' the time-change f'ed up that run. Their model does this 4-D correction scheming, which is intrinsically containing some sort of time consideration ... 'what if' their ingest got weird because we sent them our data at a time they forget/or erred in correcting their grids for - ...

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Like NASA when they did their calculations in English instead of metric and blew up a space craft? Or was that when they screwed up HUbble?

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  On 3/11/2018 at 6:48 PM, powderfreak said:

Man what a ridiculous EURO run... over 1.5" QPF in the mountains up here by Thursday night/early Friday morning.

Euro had 0.3-0.4 QPF last night and we got about an inch with 13" of snow over the past 24 hours on the big hill.

I can't imagine what that signal would bring to the mountains up here... thinking we measure feet by Friday.  Just a crush job.

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Not now pf not fn now lol

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  On 3/11/2018 at 7:11 PM, #NoPoles said:

Like NASA when they did their calculations in English instead of metric and blew up a space craft? Or was that when they screwed up HUbble?

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There's gaffes like that out there, yeah...  Not sure if something got screwed up here; frankly, I suspect it has a lot to do with the bias/error tendencies pointed out by the WPC's diagnostic teams in their mid day discussion. This smacks pretty hard as that bias playing out ...evidenced by the fact already that the EPS is arriving substantially suggestive the operational is too far out..

It was purported back in the day... how one of the Voyagers from the 1970's had a semi-colon instead of a comma embedded errantly in some 10,000 lines of software code. It wasn't determined until the space craft was somewhere out beyond Jupiter, but luckily ...it was a non-essential system.  Stranger crap has happened...

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-020>023-RIZ005>008-120315-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, Springfield, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 to 12
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, western, central,
  eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, as well as all of Rhode
  Island.
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  On 3/11/2018 at 7:24 PM, ineedsnow said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-020>023-RIZ005>008-120315-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, Springfield, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 to 12
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, western, central,
  eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, as well as all of Rhode
  Island.
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Yea I was kind of shocked to see that, especially after the latest Euro run.. I guess that shows how much credence its not getting.

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Well, I've certainly been fooled before, but using my proprietary in-house, hi-res, fine mesh modeling system--aka squinting at Euro charts and water vapor loops--I think the Euro is OTL with the northern stream. On wv it looks west of the Euro depiction to me, and that block also looks to put up a pretty good fight. I think this drops in on a more north/south trajectory, but of course these could well just be weenie musings.

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  On 3/11/2018 at 7:24 PM, ineedsnow said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-020>023-RIZ005>008-120315-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0007.180313T0000Z-180314T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, Springfield, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 to 12
  inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, western, central,
  eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, as well as all of Rhode
  Island.
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Yet they don't include Boston and Providence

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  On 3/11/2018 at 7:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yo u broke the streak...we were seeing how many con secutive posts PF could make on this threat vcuraynpe without getting a response.  a

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I should have known bc powder freak is the reverse nam w.r.t. accums.

Him calling for feet is several red flags of being obvious to incite a response ugh.

He would usually say "maybe over doing the Uplsope Response a Tad, ill start w 6-12 on the bjg hill, i love when i low ball it and still believe myself"

I love his knowledge , seriously

but i do Wish someone would do an experiment and double his forecast totals in small events and add 2/3's in large events and watch the acumulation Accuracy go Up

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  On 3/11/2018 at 7:27 PM, Hoth said:

Well, I've certainly been fooled before, but using my proprietary in-house, hi-res, fine mesh modeling system--aka squinting at Euro charts and water vapor loops--I think the Euro is OTL with the northern stream. On wv it looks west of the Euro depiction to me, and that block also looks to put up a pretty good fight. I think this drops in on a more north/south trajectory, but of course these could well just be weenie musings.

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Wpc is favoring a cmc/nam/GFS blend over the euro/ukmet camp for 12z. Concerned about the latters' treatment of the northern stream. But more importantly, hammered low confidence.

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