JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: congrats mpm you mean qpf concerns, of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just a general question... Is the EURO out at 2pm local time with the time change now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: How I hope.... GFS was 18-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All guidance has separate fronto band at H7 over the hudson river to the MA\NY border. This is likely from the nrn and srn s/w interaction. It's the type where queens see less than .5" QPF and get a foot. That is what I'm talking about, but kick that east 30/40 miles, and west SNE cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Just a general question... Is the EURO out at 2pm local time with the time change now? 1:45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 I would really like the Euro to tick west with some additional depth.. I think it may - it's own EPS trend is disconcerting... Three consecutive cycles of edging the mean west, while adding members into the western spread (some at RGEM pressure depths!!!) is nothing shy of alarming. But the higher resolution, fully integrated operational version being inside that camp would better, and boost this from median confidence right up into higher ranges.. We are getting solidly into short term; it's time to schit or get off the pot. As is, I am high confidence for SE ...now E zone warning impact (concerns therein..), to advisory west of perhaps eastern CT to roughly EEN ... Up in the mountains, ...there is a pig tone of instability associated with that mid U/A deep cold pool ...and the surface high pressure anchored in MN while all this is happening (is a also a teleconnector for ACK lows btw ), will "stretch" the easterly flow because of the arm that extends east into Ontario to the N. ... That takes storm related/conditionally saturated air and does a number of them due to oreographics/upsloping... I also stress that this is still an evolving scenario. As others have noted...we may not yet have seen the best proficiency in phasing, which could still be yet to come. By and large and so far this 12z run across the board is about an erg of force away from this thing stalling while the N/stream collocates ... if that happens, we start backing arcing bands of S/S+ with 50 mph N gale gusts right down the PHL ...certainly NYC that could be in play already. But for now, we are not seeing that degree of full on capture - and sobriety requires mentioning, this could all still yet collapse more E/SE again.. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: For a bad hangover? If one of us wines and the other whiskeys we’re good. Oh I’m 71 years old-I most assuredly have learned all of the rules regarding this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 So, one of my friends keeps scheduling college tours at Green Mountain and Plymouth State. However she has had to cancel twice because they coincided with the last two storms. She now has a tour scheduled for Plymouth State tomorrow and Green Mountain on Tuesday. I think my friend has good juju, although she doesn't see it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All guidance has separate fronto band at H7 over the hudson river to the MA\NY border. This is likely from the nrn and srn s/w interaction. It's the type where queens see less than .5" QPF and get a foot. There's some kind of convergence or IVT way out over me on all models. The GFS is utra generous with 1" of qpf. I'm cautious in believing such goodness with a low way out at 40/70 (or a bit east) but looks like there might be some validity to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: If one of us wines and the other whiskeys we’re good. Oh I’m 71 years old-I most assuredly have learned all of the rules regarding this.... Oh, I misread. I thought you did Crown and then wine lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 TWC seems a bit bullish out here. 4 to 8 and only really the GGEM shows this amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 East of CT river folks looking good but a pretty sharp cut off for the big stuff. Little tick west and a bit quicker deepening and western CT will certainly get the goods as well!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: If one of us wines and the other whiskeys we’re good. Oh I’m 71 years old-I most assuredly have learned all of the rules regarding this.... That's crazy, in all the photos I've seen you look 55. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weenie Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Do you all think models will start trending Eastward or whether the recent East shift was just a correction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: TWC seems a bit bullish out here. 4 to 8 and only really the GGEM shows this amount. Mid level magic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: East of CT river folks looking good but a pretty sharp cut off for the big stuff. Little tick west and a bit quicker deepening and western CT will certainly get the goods as well! Yeah, youre good but Middletown is f'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Wow Reggie looks nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 Know what's amazing ... the GFS isn't showing rain - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: That's crazy, in all the photos I've seen you look 55. I thInk half of it is acting younger. Weenieism helps. But your words made my day! (Well the NAM did but you get my drift...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: East of CT river folks looking good but a pretty sharp cut off for the big stuff. Little tick west and a bit quicker deepening and western CT will certainly get the goods as well! . Enough already. Most of Springfield is E of the River are the E of River comments implying Codfish gets warning snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Thank you Tip for explaining why the models seem to bring so much qpf westward up here in the mountains. Good stuff.. Question. If the blend of model runs held serve would this track and slp intensity warrant blizzard conditions along the coast? Low goes pretty far east so I don't know if the coast gets 40mph plus winds for 3 hours. We have close friends flying with their kids to a long-planned trip to Guatemala out of Logan on Wednesday morning. They are asking me if they will get out. The storm should be in cleanup phase by then, hopefully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Herpes model is a Holy Chit too!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12z HERPS, pretty fabulous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Enough already. Most of Springfield is E of the River are the E of River comments implying Codfish gets warning snows?Where the hell does Codfish live?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: TWC seems a bit bullish out here. 4 to 8 and only really the GGEM shows this amount. Reasonable forecast imo. About what we should expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 nogaps doesn't buck the trend https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2018031112&prod=prp&tau=054&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: Herpes model is a Holy Chit too!! . That's a MOG run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Where the hell does Codfish live? . I thought in the 16 Acres area of Springfield by I may be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: nogaps doesn't buck the trend https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2018031112&prod=prp&tau=054&set=All they still run that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Barry Burbank is all in, has pretty much all of Worcester and points east for 12+, almost down to the canal. Harvey is starting to push 6-12+ as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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