Chrisrotary12 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Pretty sure 12z was actually further east than 06?? . You're right, the low center track may be either dead nuts on 6z or maybe a touch east. I have reworded my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: For those of you who will be painstakingly hitting refresh as the next models roll in, in my opinion, the key to why the 12z NAM was stronger and a bit further west vs 6z is shown right here at 00z Tuesday. Look at the difference in how far south the Northern Vort digs between the 6z run and the 12z run. 6z makes it to Pittsburgh while 12z nearly makes it to Roanoke. Yup ...completely agreed... You could see way back at hour 24's thru 30 that the N/stream was nosing down more aggressively... I pointed that/this out early myself... I also think the S/stream is a tad stronger on this run, though I am not sure that is altogether important as a difference maker - The key factor with this particular event for impact profiling is nailing down the stream interaction and the proficiency of phase therein... The "weather" a storm will form question is a ship that's sailed... But for whom. This run is back to more phasing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah should look better.. we will see trying to phase at hour 30...might be even more amped than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Stop stealing all the snow up there It’s okay, we all feel that way about powderfreak and his low-key 800” a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: dude you must think the board can't read OH! ahahaha he got me, as I most certainly failed to read that altogether - good one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 rgem is 965 at the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Lol agreed. But you are still in the game now whether you like it or not. In the game for snow, yes. In the game for 18” hell no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You absolutely have a chance. I'd say his area has decent chance of 12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: In the game for snow, yes. In the game for 18” hell no. not a promise by any means, but completely disagree with your assessment of possible outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: yeah thats a problem...its the start of a 10 day around the world trip and I work all day Thursday in London. Was hoping the int'l flights would get priority to land. They’ll do what they can, but at mercy of airport delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: rgem is 965 at the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, rnaude241 said: Yeah...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: not a promise by any means, but completely disagree with your assessment of possible outcomes. whoosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: whoosh. yup right over my head? I don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Yeah...lol I feel like most on the board feel like its had a rough winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, rnaude241 said: I feel like most on the board feel like its had a rough winter. It has - but no denying that the 12z suite is amped. Fully expecting the big boys to follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 That NAM run is disgusting. Still cranking upslope after this too. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: yup right over my head? I don't get it Yesterday I discussed whenever DT is empathic about no snows, no chance, for nyc to boston it materializes. Stealing a page from the playbook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That NAM run is disgusting. Still cranking upslope after this too. Wow. Man kick the chair out here on the run yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Locked and fukking loaded!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I got mocked for mentioning the JMA last night.. I kind of put Icon in the same boat, but since it's already been brought up in the 12 model suite, 12z Icon looks interesting.. Nice stream interaction going on here, if not a bit late for those of us not in ENE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Rgem is sick. For those near and just west of river, I honestly think you’ll get a good band into there if that model is right. I doubt you’ll be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Region wide crushing (all of New England) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 There's so much to talk about where ... where does one begin... I was just looping the 500 mb wind/vorticity evolution as provided by the 06z RGEM run, and I have to say...that would result, I believe, in a truly historic situation. Like a lot of big systems of lore and annul, that system would likely stall when that capture sequencing completes ... perhaps along our just E of Cape Cod. From there, heaving bands of snow would beginning punch SW across SNE and would effectively back down into the upper M/A... If you go back and look at other notable subsume type phasing (and probably 1888 could be included in that... as well as 1978 ... and so others that did similarly but were less note-worthy for having less impact), that is common result; areas from PHL-LGA cash in off these backward pushing arcs of snow that with strong N flow and mid level "magic" ...they end up doing pretty well. If I lived in that area, I would keep tuned into this thing, ...because should the more proficient phase (which these runs are coming in more and more in favor of...), then we get into a concern that down in N NJ and NYC and also Albany ... those regions could get advisory if not low end warning wrap-back snows. I could just see this whole thing correcting toward a more whole-scale inclusion of regions if this trend toward more total phase continues. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I'm not sure I buy that last map. Central & southern RI keep getting missed by the bulk of the snow this season. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rgem is sick. For those near and just west of river, I honestly think you’ll get a good band into there if that model is right. I doubt you’ll be screwed. Runaway gets his foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Isn't it great racking up the frequent flyer miles for free trips you have no desire to go on because you just want to be home when the work trips are done? Ahhh yes that happens sometimes. I hate to miss biggies though. Need a back up plan for this one I think. I once sacrificed 5K for a storm...Jan 96 in Philly. Worth every penny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Runaway gets his foot plus The fronto argues banding near your area and west imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The pattern supports east zones, take advantage of it. lol you are tblizzing this like a champ! I fully expect you to jack now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now