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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland


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14 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

The local mets are falling over themselves trying to avoid committing to a forecast.  One actually says that they'll have a better idea of the storm impact by Monday night....

I wouldn't lock in on ANY amounts just yet...as is almost always the case ...a track 50 miles one way or the other will make a world of difference.

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5 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

Definite west trend on euro ensemble mean. Individual members have most low centers clustered west of the mean. 

Translation: this is coming.

I like the 967 mb one 20 mi SE of ACK on that last frame... and there's others similar, too. 

Using ur post for a diatribe launch pad:

I'm still edging my thinking toward the thread start, that this is primarily a SE SNE threat...with advisory action back NW ... (for now, heh)

One thing to keep in mind, I agree with Ray that there is a deformation question in play ... which, the models are sort of 'fuzzy' picking up on but, there's enough coherency there to assess where the big beast's arc of demarcation that typically separates it's inner world from outside quiescence, exists ... It may in fact for a change extend roughly eastern CT to the off the N. Shore or perhaps as far inland as SE NH, as oppose to the climo location of over ALB...  That band, as we all know, can and probably will snow a bit more prodigiously than would be suggested by QPF paint alone - if that sets up beyond the boundary separating warned versus advisory ... that skews things a bit.

So, believe it or not there is still time for this to evolve into something more meaningful for a larger portion of the region.  For this particular system .. I think we are as of 12z this morning finding our way upon the steeper part of the slope of determinism, and should this suite of runs come in more or less, I may be less apprehensive to discount either compared to prior run cycles.  This is because the actual stream interaction ... thus in theory, the degree of proficiency in phasing, will be entering the near term. 

Having said that, those three frames of the EPS mean are a bit worrisome I admit... (thanks Centralmass for put that together!) That trend is tough to discount... I find it disconcerting to some degree that the operational version appears to be slightly E of that mean, when usually ... we're set up the opposite with those tools. The operational is more typically going to show the greater standard deviation solution compared to its normalizing mean.  So something there could still be amiss... what that is, hopefully this 12z solution will shed some light.

I say ... this has been a bad modeling winter for "phasing" per se.  Can't seem to do it at any time range, ext, mids or short term - so far.  That could very well end up the epitaph on the head stone of this system when in post mortem ... Not sure if it's something endemic to the circulation its self, or if it is intrinsic modeling physics across the board, but really no model has been able to get it down... and, well... much to their credit (if not chagrin of winter storm enthusiasts) we haven't really seen a truly phased result.  Maybe this will coalesce now, moving into short range... which, that EPS mean would almost have to suggest it does among a few members at least.  who knows -

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

The North American wv loop is just a garden of delights. You can see our southern stream pinwheeling through Missouri, our northern stream plunging down the Canadian prairie, our ridge pumping, our block pressing, and all sorts of interesting bits of vorticity pinwheeling around the skunked out corpse of last week's storm. Just beautiful.

Jesus ... but you left out "...our shorts swelling..."

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Northern stream appears to be oriented in a much more meridional over western Ontario at hour 22. Also, looks like the southern s/w is relatively more neutral vs 06z.

both of those argue it would theoretically be west of 6z... need to let it play out, however

edit: also, heights slightly higher along EC

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also moving along. No stall here.

heh...it's also moving along at the speed of planetary wave migration ..i.e, not exactly fast...

Not that you or anyone doubted this but ... what difference does it make whether stalls more moves slow...

That 3KM run doesn't look to me like it would actually be over just because those initial intense bands blast through -... I visualize those band moving up and rotting over central NE ...while down here there is some east to west motion going on in bands on the radar that are probably laying down goods.

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11 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

Northern stream appears to be oriented in a much more meridional over western Ontario at hour 22. Also, looks like the southern s/w is relatively more neutral vs 06z.

both of those argue it would theoretically be west of 6z... need to let it play out, however

edit: also, heights slightly higher along EC

Yup ...good work!

Although, not sure I would describe that as "much more" ...but somewhat would do nicely.  And, that somewhat may in fact be critical - I suspect it is.  This whole stream interaction/phase potential is exceptionaly sensitive to small scale handling like 'somewhat' more or less of this and that...  That little bit seems to exponentially (for lack of better word) impact the outcome of the eventual west Atlantic total evolution out in time, either way, as demonstrated by different modeling types/cycles therein over the last couple of days. Even the king Euro's ensemble mean being more amped than it ... that may be the reddest flag there is -

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yeah... this run's going to be coming up with a higher impact scenario... May be tweaking my "SE primary threat" assessment here shortly... If so, I'll change the title of this still young-ish thread to reflect a more realistic scenario...

we'll see -

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11 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Southern stream seems stronger to me, no?

Slightly .... yup.  

It is also about 100 mi east of the previous model's run per interval over that region of the TV ...which has a feedback of more cyclonic orientation (spatially) with respect to the 30 hour N/stream being more aggressive, too ..  That all suggests this should be more proficiently phasing ...we'll see how much so

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