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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland


Typhoon Tip
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t really take that model seriously until maybe 24 hrs before. So no, I don’t have a feeling with that. However the Jan storm was much larger in scope I think. 

Thanks. Hopefully the GEFS has the right idea with the west trend.

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GYX playing it conservatively with it's snow forecast--which is still pretty healthy.  Not hitting wind issues at all.  I suspect they'll still be strong enough to keep my lawn free of accumulation while up the street they need a yard stick.

 

Have adjusted snow ratios down, and for now have suppressed
model QPF somewhat to generate snowfall forecast. This leaves
room for upward or downward adjustment as the event draws
closer. That said still appears to be yet another significant
snowfall event for the region. Based on current track and QPF
alignment mid-coast and central Maine appear to be best aligned
to see the greatest snowfall.
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9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It uglyst agf crying shame we can't. get the northern stream to come down like a 100 miles further west. It's sort of kicking right now instead of getting a nice clean phase. Let's hope we see some favorable developments in that arena today.

Exactly, the angle is sorta fugly.

We all (cept James) want this to go West today

I see a general 5-10 East of river and west/nw of se mass w current look.

10-18 se mass to cape

U want a deform unicorn, U want at least a  Cleaner partial phase

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6 hours ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Euro looks slightly west.

At the surface the Euro ended up slightly west.  Which surprised me based on what I thought looked like a slight east tick at 500.  Did Tippy say something about the upper levels looking slight east?  I just sped through 10 pages and didn't have time to fully read Tip's diatribes.

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also moving along. No stall here.

Yup.  Can take that off the table. 18 hr storm.

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4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

At the surface the Euro ended up slightly west.  Which surprised me based on what I thought looked like a slight east tick at 500.  Did Tippy say something about the upper levels looking slight east?  I just sped through 10 pages and didn't have time to fully read Tip's diatribes.

Yup.  Can take that off the table. 18 hr storm.

18 is a lot better than most of what we’ve had lately

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good. Keep ticking west. We know how often the last  second leak east happens inside of 24 hours. Though this isn't a typical Miller B so maybe it won't happen. 

Will what do we want to see on modeling early In a run to see this coming more west like we want.

A further N southern stream

Higher heights along east coast.

N stream further west and jacked?/ridge amplified?

We are prolly Late in the game for East coast trough orientation to shift west

 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will what do we want to see on modeling early In a run to see this coming more west like we want.

A further N southern stream

Higher heights along east coast.

N stream further west and jacked?/ridge amplified?

We are prolly Late in the game for East coast trough orientation to shift west

 

for max snows? I think e ma is already pegged at 6+

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will what do we want to see on modeling early In a run to see this coming more west like we want.

A further N southern stream

Higher heights along east coast.

N stream further west and jacked?/ridge amplified?

We are prolly Late in the game for East coast trough orientation to shift west

 

Would be nice to see that southern piece get a little further out ahead of that northern and pull it up and back rather than kicking it out.

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