Semper911 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Funny, no one has mentioned the 06z nam. The NAM is friendly to James for p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The EPS 6” prob map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Hopefully not too far into SE MA with mixing I think just the Cape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Too bad Reg has been hopped up on opiates all winter. That's a sick solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 With this storm and SNE on the NW corner of it, the mixing is confined much closer to the storm itself. You can see that on the cracked out 3KM NAM. Even if areas did start as a mix, shift to nrly winds as this intensifies would flip those to snow. There is definitely the possibility of areas near the coast, and esp near the Cape to have a bad wet snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Your 00z EPS >12" and >24" probabilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The North American wv loop is just a garden of delights. You can see our southern stream pinwheeling through Missouri, our northern stream plunging down the Canadian prairie, our ridge pumping, our block pressing, and all sorts of interesting bits of vorticity pinwheeling around the skunked out corpse of last week's storm. Just beautiful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Good. Keep ticking west. We know how often the last second leak east happens inside of 24 hours. Though this isn't a typical Miller B so maybe it won't happen. Reading this is like reading a real-time Messenger post. Looks like I'm going to need to head to Pit2 again. Hopefully my wife won't mind.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: With this storm and SNE on the NW corner of it, the mixing is confined much closer to the storm itself. You can see that on the cracked out 3KM NAM. Even if areas did start as a mix, shift to nrly winds as this intensifies would flip those to snow. There is definitely the possibility of areas near the coast, and esp near the Cape to have a bad wet snow event. Yeah, rain is not an issue off the Cape with this sort of track. There is a nice NNE trajectory to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Can I just say the 06z GFS/GEFS is a thing of beauty. DAMN that would be a monster solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 It's also moving along. No stall here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: The North American wv loop is just a garden of delights. You can see our southern stream pinwheeling through Missouri, our northern stream plunging down the Canadian prairie, our ridge pumping, our block pressing, and all sorts of interesting bits of vorticity pinwheeling around the skunked out corpse of last week's storm. Just beautiful. That was very poetic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 WCVB Ch5 going 12-18" right now interior SE MA. 6-12" for most in E MA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Pit2, ftw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 32 minutes ago, Hoth said: This is one of those deals where the western folks will agonize and lean on the non-hydrostatic models, hoping they're sniffing out a lot of convection pumping heights and drawing this thing in closer. Not betting on that. Though Miller As do seem to nestle in at the last minute, the blocking and northern stream interaction probably limit that possibility. this is my worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: this is my worry We see this again and again. Eeyore all over this one for western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The EPS 6” prob map Keeps going up. Just like last storm . There’s your band NYC to ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: this is my worry 12z is big today IMO. Everything should be sampled, so we in western wastes will need another 50 mile tick...unless the storm does its thing of throwing a deform farther west than modeled of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: We see this again and again. Eeyore all over this one for western areas. i do think we could get some snow back here but i feel like we will be watching the end of the world in eastern zones once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: 12z is big today IMO. Everything should be sampled, so we in western wastes will need another 50 mile tick...unless the storm does its thing of throwing a deform farther west than modeled of course. To me it’s impressive that despite a track on or outside the benchmark the models have been putting out substantial QPF well back to the west. I’m not sure why that’s happening, is it the strong north and stream pulling moisture back?Looks like 6-12 back here and further n and w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: We see this again and again. Eeyore all over this one for western areas. 2-4" in the Valley seems likely. More in the hilltowns obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: With this storm and SNE on the NW corner of it, the mixing is confined much closer to the storm itself. You can see that on the cracked out 3KM NAM. Even if areas did start as a mix, shift to nrly winds as this intensifies would flip those to snow. There is definitely the possibility of areas near the coast, and esp near the Cape to have a bad wet snow event. The 3k NAM was the first to pick up on the western extent of the early JAN blizzard. Do you think that it is on to something here or is this a totally different animal? The tracks are similar but the precip shield is tighter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, mahk_webstah said: To me it’s impressive that despite a track on or outside the benchmark the models have been putting out substantial QPF well back to the west. I’m not sure why that’s happening, is it the strong north and stream pulling moisture back?Looks like 6-12 back here and further n and w Happened in the early Jan Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 funny, they are just always a bit out of our grasp....not much 20-70 miles but its enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Pit2, ftw. Delightful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 ch 5 gone wild. It sure I would have forecasted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The 3k NAM was the first to pick up on the western extent of the early JAN blizzard. Do you think that it is on to something here or is this a totally different animal? The tracks are similar but the precip shield is tighter. I don’t really take that model seriously until maybe 24 hrs before. So no, I don’t have a feeling with that. However the Jan storm was much larger in scope I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: funny, they are just always a bit out of our grasp....not much 20-70 miles but its enough If you want a silver lining, my area was modeled to get about 15" in Feb '13 and we wound up with closer to a meter. You never know with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ch 5 gone wild. It sure I would have forecasted that. With Harv as Chief met I am a bit surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: If you want a silver lining, my area was modeled to get about 15" in Feb '13 and we wound up with closer to a meter. You never know with these things. Feb 13 is not walking through the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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