March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Well to be fair... if it was a huge hit we’d see “JMA crushes!” “ JMA is a huge hit” etc etc.

Its Prob wrong.. but worth noting it shifted east a good deal

Folks would but personally I’d save my energy as it would still be the JMA.

[CTWeatherFreak]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The climo guidance.  And the ICON if you want to get technical.  00z run shows some rain at the on set.

Uhm.. The icon?  Is that any better than quoting the jma?

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The climo guidance.  And the ICON if you want to get technical.  00z run shows some rain at the on set.

It could start that way but guidance has it getting pretty cold as the meat moves in.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Besides I never said I 'used' it just because I looked at it.  Besides it's not the only flip flopper.  I hear Ukie is near Bermuda!

Look away at the JMA or you will be burned at the stake by the angry mob!

That sucks about the UKIE.

 

[weathafella]

ICON is another one.   All of these models with wild swings every 6 hours are suspect.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It could start that way but guidance has it getting pretty cold as the meat moves in.

Unless it moves over the Cape, that is not a mix look. Even the gfs is cold.

[CoastalWx]

We have too many models available.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We have too many weenies available.

I agree

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Uhm.. The icon?  Is that any better than quoting the jma?

  Someone asked "what guidance is showing mixing" and I accurately posted what was/is.  No emotional investment in that.  People take the negative runs too negatively like they can't accept what they show.  We can only talk/discuss what the snowiest models show.  Doesn't work like that.

[CoastalWx]

I also would not worry about those Ptype algorithms. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm glad the west trend stopped. I'll take my chances trying to grab a deform band.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS solid again.

[Thunderblizzard]

UK does look a bit NW of the 12z run at least.

[OSUmetstud]

the ukmet is a good hit.  You guys need to put the bong away...."bermuda"

 

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

the ukmet is a good hit.  You guys need to put the bong away...."bermuda"

 

 

This reminds me a little of the early Jan blizzard. Heavy snow well west of the center of low pressure, and deepening fast. 

[weathafella]

Lol....someone said ukmet was bad.  Uncle was drunk at noon but sober at midnight?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

the ukmet is a good hit.  You guys need to put the bong away...."bermuda"

 

 

So close to a burial

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nice scooter high should help with precip.

[Logan11]

I have to wonder if the prolific IVT into Eastern NY is going to be for real. A lot of models have it and .5" to .75"  type qpf here. But model IVT magic often evaporates as the event approaches. No direct banding will ever get this far west so it's IVT or nothing, probably the same for western NE unless it trends closer to the coast.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice scooter high should help with precip.

The golden banana?

Ill take the Ukie 100 miles west please

[rnaude241]

Ray, when are you making your first call? I enjoy reading your write-ups. 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol....someone said ukmet was bad.  Uncle was drunk at noon but sober at midnight?

Crown Royal before noon, it's 5 o'clock somewhere

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll try to tonight when I get back from the wedding...in Seattle, so very late...well after euro

[rnaude241]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll try to tonight when I get back from the wedding...in Seattle, so very late...well after euro

No worries, enjoy the wedding. Forgot you were out on the west coast. 

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol....someone said ukmet was bad.  Uncle was drunk at noon but sober at midnight?

1.2 to .8 to the RI border, .75 to .6 to central Ct NNE 1.3 plus

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1.2 to .8 to the RI border, .75 to .6 to central Ct NNE 1.3 plus

Good guess from the crappy maps, actuals

[Ginx snewx]

No surprise GEFS 1 plus

[40/70 Benchmark]

Uk would be mid level magic here...Very Euro like.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Uk would be mid level magic here...Very Euro like.

Crushed

[Ginx snewx]

Can see  Tamarack picking up his 2nd 20 plusser in a week with ratios