March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would you mind showing previous timeframes??

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

By saying it's not out of the question I implied probability,  hope people understood 

Lol I meant uncertainty, but yeah.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To my untrained eye 18z GGEM looks better and stalled.

I always forget they started running that.

[EastonSN+]

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Amazingly the 12 inch progs are higher than the last storm 84 out

They nailed this past storm. If that keeps increasing west.. up up and away 

[Ginx snewx]

Look at that Scooter high. Wow

[78Blizzard]

That 18z CMC is well NW of 12z.

[EastonSN+]

I will be honest the GFS taking a step back has shaken me a bit. 

[Logan11]

45 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

GFS a bit less amped... northern s/w not quite as favorable.

It looked like it was heading for a good solution until it lost the southern energy way out after Hour 54.  It was a very GFS-like solution.

 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest the GFS taking a step back has shaken me a bit. 

shaken? Do you have money riding on this?

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest the GFS taking a step back has shaken me a bit. 

Do you remember what it did within 24 hours of the last event? Wouldn't give it too much weight. This is the model that had Feb '13 as a weak reflection scraping the Cape the day of the storm.

[MaineJayhawk]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest the GFS taking a step back has shaken me a bit. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Do you remember what it did within 24 hours of the last event? Wouldn't give it too much weight. This is the model that had Feb '13 as a weak reflection scraping the Cape the day of the storm.

Good point

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

shaken? Do you have money riding on this?

Not yet

[EastonSN+]

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest the GFS taking a step back has shaken me a bit. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't believe the GFS 18z run gets the full compliment of data,... and is in part initialized off the first 6 hourly solution of the 12z guidance to fill any holes in the initialization.

That was the case up through 5 years ago - Walter Drag told me that some four or five years ago.  Not sure if that's till the case.. 

IF so,  ...that makes it about as good as any other ensemble member; granted, that doesn't mean things can't exactly evolve, but the problem is, the 12z was really only step two along a trend - so it appears. That means that the holes were plugged by a solution in flux to begin with...

Somewhere in that complexity exists the notion not to trust this solution is really in keeping with said trend because it's based on a melange of estimates and computations combined.

If it gets the full compliment of original and unique sampling... I still wouldn't be certain that as the mechanics enters the NW Territory from out of the Alaska sector ...if it's just not temporarily lost a bit. 

I'm still putting money on the biggest threat being SE zones... but also would not be shocked if this till gets farther NW in the end.

[EastonSN+]

I got 10 the last storm and a tree fell on my house.

I WANT MORE.

[78Blizzard]

Now that the 18z CMC solution is in, it looks like the GFS is the outlier.  Tossed.

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't believe the GFS 18z run gets the full compliment of data,... and is in part initialized off the first 6 hourly solution of the 12z guidance to fill any holes in the initialization.

That was the case up through 5 years ago - Walter Drag told me that some four or five years ago.  Not sure if that's till the case.. 

IF so,  ...that makes it about as good as any other ensemble member; granted, that doesn't mean things can't exactly evolve, but the problem is, the 12z was really only step two along a trend - so it appears. That means that the holes were plugged by a solution in flux to begin with...

Somewhere in that complexity exists the notion not to trust this solution is really in keeping with said trend because it's based on a melange of estimates and computations combined.

If it gets the full compliment of original and unique sampling... I still wouldn't be certain that as the mechanics enters the NW Territory from out of the Alaska sector ...if it's just not temporarily lost a bit. 

I'm still putting money on the biggest threat being SE zones... but also would not be shocked if this till gets farther NW in the end.

It gets airplane data but no balloons.

Either way, it gets only satellite data over bumpfk canada.

[JC-CT]

Aren't all the runs based in part on the previous run?

[Typhoon Tip]

Guys ... I realize I'm trying to corral the public here and that's probably as much a fool's errand as the fools that ignore it ... but don't do that... Don't start tossing models just because they don't  fit into what one wants...

All the GFS did is return to the previous dynamic...  and it didn't even return the whole way - roughly half.  I'd say that's not bad solution for a run that may very well have been missing the same compliment of ingested data as the 12z version. 

Also, if you go back two days really... every cycle the GFS has carried this bomb... just not striking the region with it. That's a far cry better than just about every other tool in the game that went completely flat on a couple cycles...

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest the GFS taking a step back has shaken me a bit. 

I could totally get on board a powdery non damaging snow storm, let's hope that's how this plays out

[weathafella]

 CMC is a crushing.

[DFRI]

BOX map is out.  Hope it verifies just the way it is.

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

 CMC is a crushing.

Yep

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

 CMC is a crushing.

pretty colors but it maxes out at about an inch of qpf for e mass and less west. I wouldn't call it a crushing.

I'd also feel pretty good right now east of 495.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep

Crushing? I'm sorry, I just don't feel that description fits the verbatim model output vs the upper ceiling of this event.

[JC-CT]

Soooo....

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

pretty colors but it maxes out at about an inch of qpf for e mass and less west. I wouldn't call it a crushing.

I'd also feel pretty good right now east of 495.

Lol a 2018 response if I ever saw one. I'd be ecstatic