March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[MarkO]

22 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Eat at Lakeview.  You on Van Buren Lake?  Say hello to the Cyrs and Dionnes.

lol, are there Dionne's left in Van Buren? I thought we all moved to out?

[rnaude241]

04z HRRR is a tad slower than 03z

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Man this whole storm is ending up slower than modeled

[NYCGreg]

Well, the NYC thread is dead, so I'm following with you guys.  Not looking too good for us at this point, though I suppose there is still some hope left if the storm is slower and can get captured earlier. Where is the guy who kept touting that there would be a full phase?  Even if he is wrong I'd like to read more of that stuff.  Hope is a good thing, even if Red in Shawshank Redemption disagrees.

I should say Hoboken (just west of NYC).  Obviously parts of LI will do fine.

[TalcottWx]

This looks like death band right over the E MA corridor. Wooooooo.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We all bust...but just own it.

People respect that.

Speaking of which, im back and radar is looking good

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Satellite shows the storm center wrapping up on the west envelope of guidance

[Roger Smith]

I don't think it's slow, it's pivoting with an elongated center now, leading portion is around 38N 71W and trailing back at 36.5N 73W. It looks like it's trying to hook up with the inland ULL while the one chasing it is pushing it northeast, therefore some elements on radar and satellite imagery are moving more or less due north (across LI into s NE). 

This will explode in next 3h, can already see the pressure falling faster now at buoy 44066 north of the center. Should be S+ over the Cape by daybreak. 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44066

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This looks like death band right over the E MA corridor. Wooooooo.

Yea, I'm seeing the same thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder if the north shore can get some cj action this time...interesting returns flying in from the ne off of the ocean...in advance of the main precip shield.

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if the north shore can get some cj action this time...interesting returns flying in from the ne off of the ocean...in advance of the main precip shield.

Ya was just looking at BOX radar and noticed that....what is that?  OES?

[wxsniss]

12 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This looks like death band right over the E MA corridor. Wooooooo.

HRDPS supports that, the band just sits and pivots over us into southeast MA for hours

[ice1972]

She's comin in hot.......really really love WV loops.....

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=northeast-wv-1-96&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

[MarkO]

Low level stuff I believe. It's been going on for a while, still dry in Lowell after a few drops. 36.5/30

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

HRDPS supports that, the band just sits and pivots over us into southeast MA for hours

Looks like it gets out to 495.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sam, what do you think?

[OKpowdah]

Shallow convection. Actually have a little bit of CAPE in the lowest couple kilometers. HRRR has this in the forecast too.

[MarkO]

Looks like subsidence initially sets up from just west of OKX radar northeast up through 495 belt, but it probably pivots west, at least that's what I'm hoping. 

35.9/30 and rain, but I believe it's snowing just above me by the opaque clouds.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

[bristolri_wx]

Stayed up this late, mind as well wait for the Euro.

[Thunderblizzard]

Euro looks pretty good to me

[USCG RS]

7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

No love for LI - nice write up to explain your reasoning though

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks a hair less progressive....so far.

[wxsniss]

Thru initial 12 hours looks slower and a tick west

[Diggiebot]

6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

12-18 with 2ft jackpots seems a little more plausible. 40 plus hasn’t really been shown by a model. 

[dryslot]

A tic or two west of the 12z run with the qpf field.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Slightly beefed up east....same or a tick more compressed west.

[dryslot]

That's all i needed to see, GFS was pretty much the only model to tic east.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, Diggiebot said:

12-18 with 2ft jackpots seems a little more plausible. 

I figured if any storm to go big on it is this one

[wxsniss]

Huge hit 12z-18z Tuesday... a hair west of 12z run... the west trends (NAM/RGEM/mesos) were real, toss the UK and GFS